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 ASK THE HANDICAPPER 
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Thanks Paul

Week 9 flat ratings are complete. All 38 races and all 20 bajillion horses. Enjoy.

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Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:56 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
Thanks Paul

Week 9 flat ratings are complete. All 38 races and all 20 bajillion horses. Enjoy.


Impressive. Thanks for the good work! You do a great job.


Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:36 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Thanks Taunton :D

Week 10 flat ratings are complete

------------------

Just over 2 hours three nights a week
Set up the folders. Do some copy and pasting.
Open the form for most horses in a race to gauge what the rating for each horse should be.
Put the new rating in the kit. Put the new rating in TOM.
Do this for 38 races each week. What have we got now? 100's of horses?
Get it done send it off to Gray because my dropbox has been wonky since I installed it.
Let you all know the ratings are done.



It gives me the warm and fuzzies every week to read Stu's critique of my handicapping in the horse notes. It makes it all worth it...

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Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:16 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:

It gives me the warm and fuzzies every week to read Stu's critique of my handicapping in the horse notes. It makes it all worth it...


C'mon, wouldn't be the same without it :wink:


Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:44 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Well that was a fun week of handicapping. Had to do 5 races twice because ahhh you know already. Then with a big slap to the face with a dead fish I had two wins taken away fairly due to reruns. 43 races done and in the books. Flat ratings are complete for week 11.

I need a good laugh. You need a good laugh. I saw this this week. It's hilarious. The guy walked away later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB-c6ravt60

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Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:53 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:16 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Top job!!!


Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:05 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Howdy

My horse "Pop the Cork" placed 3rd in R20 Betdaq Aw 2YO Championship Leg 4, but his rating dropped from 71 to 70.
Just wanted to check as i expected it would go up not down.

Cheers


Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Jango wrote:
Howdy

My horse "Pop the Cork" placed 3rd in R20 Betdaq Aw 2YO Championship Leg 4, but his rating dropped from 71 to 70.
Just wanted to check as i expected it would go up not down.

Cheers


The race overall was poor quality. A 0-85 handicap with a final rating somewhere in the mid to upper 70's = poor quality.

The winner got a 75. Up from 66. I rarely gives jumps of 10+ points so 9 is pretty steep. Has a long form history of poor results with only recently waking up. I thought the horse still deserved a chance at 0-75 races if there are any left.

Second ran a 70 and was given a 60 - up from 53. Only a 60 because it has a long form history of poor finishes in low handicap company and I thought it still deserved to be eligible for 0-60 races if any are left.

Your horse ran 69 in a poor race. With a short form history, today's race being a poor race quality and my opinion your horse should have done better I decided your horse should be eligible for 0-70 races.

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Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:49 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
The race overall was poor quality. A 0-85 handicap with a final rating somewhere in the mid to upper 70's = poor quality.

The winner got a 75. Up from 66. I rarely gives jumps of 10+ points so 9 is pretty steep. Has a long form history of poor results with only recently waking up. I thought the horse still deserved a chance at 0-75 races if there are any left.

Second ran a 70 and was given a 60 - up from 53. Only a 60 because it has a long form history of poor finishes in low handicap company and I thought it still deserved to be eligible for 0-60 races if any are left.

Your horse ran 69 in a poor race. With a short form history, today's race being a poor race quality and my opinion your horse should have done better I decided your horse should be eligible for 0-70 races.


All good.
Thanks for the insight on how you work out the ratings, Geez thats a lot of work involved.
Hats off to you. :)


Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:37 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Flat ratings for week 12 are complete.

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Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:10 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Hi Sirius

Just want to have a chat about your ratings for the Old Vic Stakes in which your horse won and mine came a close second.

I feel as though you have rated not only your horse but mine and the rest of the field too high.

I am basing this on drawing a form line through trainers that were in the race and more importantly the trainers that weren't in the race. I think the Old Vic was one of a few races on day two that were quite weak with no G1 ttf trainers in the race and you have rated yours, mine and Daniel French's horse not far behind G1 trainers winning horses in other maiden races over the past two days. I know you are not to know about my stable for this season but last season you rated my stable at 54 and I know I have made no improvement on last season as I only bred for a few seasons on the flat.

Personally I think the Old Vic would only be a 0-90 hcp race at best and I would like you to consider dropping all the horses ratings down that ran in that race. I also think race 16 and 19 are worth re-evaluating as well as they were races where only handicap trainers entered into. I understand you may not have wanted to appear to be looking after yourself if you handicapped your horse lower but in your own self rating at the end of last season you gave your stable a 68 rating. I hope you and I have two horses that are that good but with no disrespect, realistically I doubt it.

Doug.


Tue May 29, 2018 3:16 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
You make a compelling argument but I don't judge the field by those final ratings I compiled last season. They are what they are. I do however notice the group of trainers in the race and judge the quality of the group.

For the races you highlight the trainers assembled are definitely not the top tier. I did rate the races lower than average. These are first week maidens with almost exclusively first time starters. How am I to know what their true ability will be throughout the year? so I try to keep within a certain range. I was very liberal with ratings compared to last season knowing the first week races can be misleading. My ratings across the board are generally much lower than I what I did before. I've dropped the ratings 5 points for all horses in the three races you've mentioned. That's all I feel comfortable with.

I happen to think my horse in Race 13 Ends of the Earth can be a 108 performer. Robertson's horse in Race 16 manhandled the field and looked like a 112 but the horses behind were perhaps too high. Follis' horse in Race 19 I wavered on going lower but I wanted to be fair to other maiden winners. These are after all first week maidens which in the past have been described as listed to group races in disguise.

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Tue May 29, 2018 10:18 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Week 1 ratings are in. Ratings are lower this year you may notice.

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Wed May 30, 2018 12:58 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
You make a compelling argument but I don't judge the field by those final ratings I compiled last season. They are what they are. I do however notice the group of trainers in the race and judge the quality of the group.

For the races you highlight the trainers assembled are definitely not the top tier. I did rate the races lower than average. These are first week maidens with almost exclusively first time starters. How am I to know what their true ability will be throughout the year? so I try to keep within a certain range. I was very liberal with ratings compared to last season knowing the first week races can be misleading. My ratings across the board are generally much lower than I what I did before. I've dropped the ratings 5 points for all horses in the three races you've mentioned. That's all I feel comfortable with.

I happen to think my horse in Race 13 Ends of the Earth can be a 108 performer. Robertson's horse in Race 16 manhandled the field and looked like a 112 but the horses behind were perhaps too high. Follis' horse in Race 19 I wavered on going lower but I wanted to be fair to other maiden winners. These are after all first week maidens which in the past have been described as listed to group races in disguise.


Thank you for taking the time to consider my argument and thank you for re-evaluating the ratings in all three races.


Wed May 30, 2018 4:19 am
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