View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:33 am



Reply to topic  [ 280 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 ... 19  Next
 ASK THE HANDICAPPER 
Author Message
Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
Posts: 2529
Location: South Australia
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
You make a compelling argument but I don't judge the field by those final ratings I compiled last season. They are what they are. I do however notice the group of trainers in the race and judge the quality of the group.

For the races you highlight the trainers assembled are definitely not the top tier. I did rate the races lower than average. These are first week maidens with almost exclusively first time starters. How am I to know what their true ability will be throughout the year? so I try to keep within a certain range. I was very liberal with ratings compared to last season knowing the first week races can be misleading. My ratings across the board are generally much lower than I what I did before. I've dropped the ratings 5 points for all horses in the three races you've mentioned. That's all I feel comfortable with.

I happen to think my horse in Race 13 Ends of the Earth can be a 108 performer. Robertson's horse in Race 16 manhandled the field and looked like a 112 but the horses behind were perhaps too high. Follis' horse in Race 19 I wavered on going lower but I wanted to be fair to other maiden winners. These are after all first week maidens which in the past have been described as listed to group races in disguise.


Thank you for taking the time to consider my argument and thank you for re-evaluating the ratings in all three races.


Wed May 30, 2018 4:19 am
Profile
Group 2 winner
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 10:20 am
Posts: 983
Location: Spain
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Sirus,

Can you take a look at race 37 of last week when you get 5 mins.

My horse finished 8th and was rated 83 but the horse who finished 15th 4.25 lengths behind mine is rated 58, 25lbs lower, 6lb a length seems wrong.

Are the races handicapped on finish position rather than distance ?

Thanks


Wed May 30, 2018 10:50 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Week 2 ratings are done. Lots of corrupted files this week. Horses running in wrong races, twice and not running at all happened this week. There may be mistakes.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:52 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
I'm going to change the rating for the horse Arcelia who is running in Race 3 -- Kempton Racecourse Handicap for trainer Meherzad Mistry. The horse placed last in the Nell Gwyn last out with a rating of 72. For some reason the horse has a rating of 87 after that effort. A gain of 15 points for finishing last? Either I put in the wrong number or something else happened. The rating is now 65.

Please if you notice a rating totally bizarre such as this one let me know.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:51 am
Profile
Group 2 winner

Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:58 pm
Posts: 819
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Hi Gray

Can you please check the chase rating for my horse Graine Amore.
The racekit pulled him up the first 3 weeks so he was on 110, in week 4 he finished 16th and was dropped to I believe 101 (nit 100% certain) and then pulled up again in week 5 and has gone back up to 110.

Darren


Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:56 pm
Posts: 5518
Location: uk
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Pommard wrote:
Hi Gray

Can you please check the chase rating for my horse Graine Amore.
The racekit pulled him up the first 3 weeks so he was on 110, in week 4 he finished 16th and was dropped to I believe 101 (nit 100% certain) and then pulled up again in week 5 and has gone back up to 110.

Darren



Hi Darren seemed I missed putting his rating down to 101 I have done it now so it should be 101 next time he runs.

Gray

_________________
simple in mind but wonderful in young life
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNzbn9 ... idx5pNkHaQ


Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:24 pm
Profile YIM WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Image

His second start he airs out winning cosily. I usually give second time starters who do this a big jump in points. You also called the win in the notes. I didn't think it was fair for this horse to be eligible for the very bottom level handicap (0-60) after this performance. So I gave him a 61, 1 point over the level. Let him prove he is not that good in his next race. He ran 4th in that race running on paper a rating around 80. I upped him another point.

In the future can we please refrain from such over the top critiques of my handicapping? It's bad on my morale. I do 12,12 and 14 races over 3 nights (a couple hundred horses each week?). I click on the form for almost every horse to see class levels and distance choices (I notice bizarre distance choices 8) ). I try to notice the trainer notes of trainers who bother to make them to help gauge how they think their horse should do. I try to give some extra points off to slumping trainers. Try to be fair with the upper echelon trainers horses in handicap races. Not to mention all the set up and cutting and pasting of files which I have down to a precise routine. Thanks

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:56 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:56 pm
Posts: 5518
Location: uk
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
Image

His second start he airs out winning cosily. I usually give second time starters who do this a big jump in points. You also called the win in the notes. I didn't think it was fair for this horse to be eligible for the very bottom level handicap (0-60) after this performance. So I gave him a 61, 1 point over the level. Let him prove he is not that good in his next race. He ran 4th in that race running on paper a rating around 80. I upped him another point.

In the future can we please refrain from such over the top critiques of my handicapping? It's bad on my morale. I do 12,12 and 14 races over 3 nights (a couple hundred horses each week?). I click on the form for almost every horse to see class levels and distance choices (I notice bizarre distance choices 8) ). I try to notice the trainer notes of trainers who bother to make them to help gauge how they think their horse should do. I try to give some extra points off to slumping trainers. Try to be fair with the upper echelon trainers horses in handicap races. Not to mention all the set up and cutting and pasting of files which I have down to a precise routine. Thanks




The Man does a great job Guys thanks Sirius for your hard Work :D

Gray

I expect some horses being dropped a few pounds more than other trainers

_________________
simple in mind but wonderful in young life
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNzbn9 ... idx5pNkHaQ


Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:47 am
Profile YIM WWW
Group 2 winner
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:22 pm
Posts: 757
Location: Fife, Scotland
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Sirius and Gray both do great jobs as handicappers. It's one job I could never do and if I tried to do it, probably would never do as good an overall job as Sirius and Gray.

I must admit to being perplexed some weeks by the handicaps of my horses but I recognise that the handicappers don't know the ability or style of running etc.. of my horses and since as I said above I could never do such a good job as they do, I just bite my tongue and let them get on with it.

I also think that because the racekit has such a randomness built into it, very few horses will run the same from week to week so every horse has a chance of running either better than its average performance or worse than its average performance. I think that this randomeness of the racekit will mean some horses will be handicapped either under or over the average ability. Over the season the handicap of a horse will even out.


Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:02 am
Profile
Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
Posts: 2529
Location: South Australia
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
I would leave notes for how my horses will go but to be honest.....I have no idea what my horses will do week from week.


Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:40 pm
Profile
Handicapper

Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:45 pm
Posts: 119
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Attention Sirius or anyone else that can check...

My 6f horse Magnetide has a rating of 82? Is that a mistake? I have it entered in a 0-110 race right now so can someone check if that the rating is right?

Edit: I just noticed that it ran in another race which is not in it's historical form?


Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:27 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Yeah when I got it last night it wasn't showing on the handicappers race result page so I left it because at this point I have no clue what is what with these corrupted files. I will look the horse up now and try to get a straight rating.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:36 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Magnetide's rating is 115

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:48 am
Profile
Handicapper

Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:45 pm
Posts: 119
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
SiriusChill wrote:
Magnetide's rating is 115


Ok thanx

0230 - Magnetide - Still don't know why it has a 0 as his last race. I don't see any data on that race.

Edit: Still says 82 in TOM but removed from the hcp race.


Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:53 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2885
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Rating is now fixed in TOM for Magnetide

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:12 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 280 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 ... 19  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 31 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.