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ASK THE HANDICAPPER
http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=15931
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Author:  Anadin [ Wed May 30, 2018 10:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Sirus,

Can you take a look at race 37 of last week when you get 5 mins.

My horse finished 8th and was rated 83 but the horse who finished 15th 4.25 lengths behind mine is rated 58, 25lbs lower, 6lb a length seems wrong.

Are the races handicapped on finish position rather than distance ?

Thanks

Author:  SiriusChill [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Week 2 ratings are done. Lots of corrupted files this week. Horses running in wrong races, twice and not running at all happened this week. There may be mistakes.

Author:  SiriusChill [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

I'm going to change the rating for the horse Arcelia who is running in Race 3 -- Kempton Racecourse Handicap for trainer Meherzad Mistry. The horse placed last in the Nell Gwyn last out with a rating of 72. For some reason the horse has a rating of 87 after that effort. A gain of 15 points for finishing last? Either I put in the wrong number or something else happened. The rating is now 65.

Please if you notice a rating totally bizarre such as this one let me know.

Author:  Pommard [ Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Hi Gray

Can you please check the chase rating for my horse Graine Amore.
The racekit pulled him up the first 3 weeks so he was on 110, in week 4 he finished 16th and was dropped to I believe 101 (nit 100% certain) and then pulled up again in week 5 and has gone back up to 110.

Darren

Author:  simpleminds [ Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Pommard wrote:
Hi Gray

Can you please check the chase rating for my horse Graine Amore.
The racekit pulled him up the first 3 weeks so he was on 110, in week 4 he finished 16th and was dropped to I believe 101 (nit 100% certain) and then pulled up again in week 5 and has gone back up to 110.

Darren



Hi Darren seemed I missed putting his rating down to 101 I have done it now so it should be 101 next time he runs.

Gray

Author:  SiriusChill [ Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Image

His second start he airs out winning cosily. I usually give second time starters who do this a big jump in points. You also called the win in the notes. I didn't think it was fair for this horse to be eligible for the very bottom level handicap (0-60) after this performance. So I gave him a 61, 1 point over the level. Let him prove he is not that good in his next race. He ran 4th in that race running on paper a rating around 80. I upped him another point.

In the future can we please refrain from such over the top critiques of my handicapping? It's bad on my morale. I do 12,12 and 14 races over 3 nights (a couple hundred horses each week?). I click on the form for almost every horse to see class levels and distance choices (I notice bizarre distance choices 8) ). I try to notice the trainer notes of trainers who bother to make them to help gauge how they think their horse should do. I try to give some extra points off to slumping trainers. Try to be fair with the upper echelon trainers horses in handicap races. Not to mention all the set up and cutting and pasting of files which I have down to a precise routine. Thanks

Author:  simpleminds [ Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

SiriusChill wrote:
Image

His second start he airs out winning cosily. I usually give second time starters who do this a big jump in points. You also called the win in the notes. I didn't think it was fair for this horse to be eligible for the very bottom level handicap (0-60) after this performance. So I gave him a 61, 1 point over the level. Let him prove he is not that good in his next race. He ran 4th in that race running on paper a rating around 80. I upped him another point.

In the future can we please refrain from such over the top critiques of my handicapping? It's bad on my morale. I do 12,12 and 14 races over 3 nights (a couple hundred horses each week?). I click on the form for almost every horse to see class levels and distance choices (I notice bizarre distance choices 8) ). I try to notice the trainer notes of trainers who bother to make them to help gauge how they think their horse should do. I try to give some extra points off to slumping trainers. Try to be fair with the upper echelon trainers horses in handicap races. Not to mention all the set up and cutting and pasting of files which I have down to a precise routine. Thanks




The Man does a great job Guys thanks Sirius for your hard Work :D

Gray

I expect some horses being dropped a few pounds more than other trainers

Author:  Wannabe [ Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Sirius and Gray both do great jobs as handicappers. It's one job I could never do and if I tried to do it, probably would never do as good an overall job as Sirius and Gray.

I must admit to being perplexed some weeks by the handicaps of my horses but I recognise that the handicappers don't know the ability or style of running etc.. of my horses and since as I said above I could never do such a good job as they do, I just bite my tongue and let them get on with it.

I also think that because the racekit has such a randomness built into it, very few horses will run the same from week to week so every horse has a chance of running either better than its average performance or worse than its average performance. I think that this randomeness of the racekit will mean some horses will be handicapped either under or over the average ability. Over the season the handicap of a horse will even out.

Author:  NPG319 [ Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

I would leave notes for how my horses will go but to be honest.....I have no idea what my horses will do week from week.

Author:  thunderspark1 [ Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Attention Sirius or anyone else that can check...

My 6f horse Magnetide has a rating of 82? Is that a mistake? I have it entered in a 0-110 race right now so can someone check if that the rating is right?

Edit: I just noticed that it ran in another race which is not in it's historical form?

Author:  SiriusChill [ Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Yeah when I got it last night it wasn't showing on the handicappers race result page so I left it because at this point I have no clue what is what with these corrupted files. I will look the horse up now and try to get a straight rating.

Author:  SiriusChill [ Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Magnetide's rating is 115

Author:  thunderspark1 [ Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

SiriusChill wrote:
Magnetide's rating is 115


Ok thanx

0230 - Magnetide - Still don't know why it has a 0 as his last race. I don't see any data on that race.

Edit: Still says 82 in TOM but removed from the hcp race.

Author:  SiriusChill [ Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Rating is now fixed in TOM for Magnetide

Author:  SiriusChill [ Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER

Please trainers if you notice a rating that makes no sense (not one that seems slightly unfair) please for the sake of everyone else let me know.

I hit wrong numbers sometimes when dealing with the horse files and TOM. This week it's a case of not even changing the number of a winner of a group 3 last week. Surely one would notice their group winner's rating wasn't changed at all. Thank you.

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