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 New Handicap Rule 

!0 Point Reduction for Pull Ups
Poll ended at Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:45 pm
Yes 80%  80%  [ 8 ]
No 20%  20%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 10

 New Handicap Rule 
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
Posts: 2497
Location: South Australia
Post Re: New Handicap Rule
Wannabe wrote:
NPG319 wrote:
I haven't voted. I don't have a problem with the yes vote - what I wonder is what is the reason for a horse to pull up? If we knew 100% it was because of weight or rating then cool but I am not sure dropping weight etc is the answer - it may well be something more random than that.



I am also not sure weight is the problem. I have seen horses with almost bottom weight get pulled-up.

If a horse is having a bad CK day and is running at the back of the pack it is a candidate for a pull-up. Over the various seasons of SO6 I have seen some of the better trainers horses running at the back of the field get pulled-up but then in the next race they run in the middle of the pack under similiar weights and don't get pulled-up.

All my horses are even paced horses which tends to make them run in a closely knit pack and I know from my own trial races almost every long distance horse I uploaded to the league was pulled-up at least once and this had nothing to do with weight as they were all carrying the same weight. It was just how they performed in the CK in that particular race.


On the other hand, some horses are just outclassed in a race and will always be back markers even under bottom weight.


I agree.


Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:36 am
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Group 2 winner
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Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:22 pm
Posts: 739
Location: Fife, Scotland
Post Re: New Handicap Rule
Just as a test I decided to experiment with race 13, the Munster National.

Here is the final results from the race.

Image

There were 3 horses pulled-up in the race, Jims, Joshs and Dougs. Joshs horse was top weight and Jims and Dougs were weighted in the bottom third of the horses.


I re-ran the race and here are the results.

Image

3 pull-ups again but this time it was Jamie, Darren and Martins. Darrens horse was near the top in weight, Jamie's horse was near the bottom in weight and Martins in the bottom third.


I re-ran the race again.

Image

2 pull-ups this time. Two different horses from the bottom third of the weights.

So we have 3 versions of the race with eight different horses being pulled-up. I think these pull-ups are just random chance on which horse is having a bad day.



To test the idea about reducing pulled-up horses by 10lb, I took 10lb off every horse that pulled-up and this is the result.

Image

A new horse, Stu's was pulled-up but two of the previous horses to pull-up, (Jim's and Darrens's) were also pulled-up even running 10lb lighter.


I am not quite sure what this proves. Maybe 8 horses from 17 runners being adjusted by 10lbs was too much?


Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:22 am
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:16 pm
Posts: 2297
Post Re: New Handicap Rule
Proves to me that pull ups are as random as the race results :)

I re-run races from time to time, and for the avoidance of doubt, after posting the results.

The re-run results for the most part are all over the map, yes the outclassed horses usually stay outclassed but in the group you would consider competitive there is little in the way of consistency.


Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:13 am
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
Posts: 2497
Location: South Australia
Post Re: New Handicap Rule
Good work Jim. It is as I suspect we were both thinking - that the pull ups, falls and lost riders are all random.


Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:55 am
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