Hi everyone,
I am still very wet behind the ears when it comes to the CK but I encountered the following in one of my recent 3yo trials and was wondering if this is something that you often come across (just wanted to share my experience!).

Trial was set up as follows;
* 2 "semi-finals" of 16 horses.
* 5 races over the same course and distance.

Points awarded as follows;
* 10 pts for 1st
* 6pts for 2nd
* 4pts for 3rd
* 3pts for 4th
* 2pts for 5th
* 1pt for 6th

Top 6 point scorers over the 5 races go the "Final" for 5 more races over the same course and distance with the same points allocation.

In one semi-final the six qualifiers were;
Horse A 42pts (3 comfortable wins and 2 runners up)
Horse B 27pts
Horse C 23pts
Horse D 19pts
Horse E 6pts
Horse F 6pts

This semi-final was by far the stronger of the two with 4 of the 6 horses going on to fill the first 4 places in the final. However in the final, Horse B dominated winning every race and scoring a maximum 50pts. Horse F finished 2nd with 24pts. Horse A could only manage 3rd with 20pts. Horse E came in 4th with 18pts.

After studying the results from the final and semi-final I have come to one of two conclusions;
1. As the field sizes were different (16 in the semi-final, 12 in the final), maybe Horse A was more comfortable in a larger field, while horses B & F were more comfortable in a smaller field.

2. The absence of a natural front runner in the final. In the semi-final there was a horse that led from the front and set a cracking pace. This suited Horse A's style of running more than the other horses. The final however was lacking a natural front runner and there was less pace meaning horses that were suited to being held up near the rear of field had less ground to make up on Horse A in the closing stages.

In all likelihood it is probably a combination of the two (and maybe something else as well!), but it's left me wondering which is my best horse over the distance - Horse A or Horse B? Short answer - it depends on the other horses in the race!

Cheers!
Paul

I will try and answer\respond to your conclusions

Field size can have an effect on races but I don't think it is the case of one horse preferring smaller fields. If you keep the same field size but swap 2 or 3 of the poorest horses for new horses (more donkeys), this can have a massive effect on the outcome. A horse that was brilliant in first race can often be average in the second race.

When I trial, I always want "true" run races. For that reason I always include a front runner in every trial race.
My front runners are Race Handy horses who have just failed to make the grade.

In the league, each race can be very different, but more often than not, there is one horse that will set the pace. That is one of the reasons I always use a Race Handy horse as a "pacemaker".

One other point, depending on the track you are trialing, don't make the field size too big, some tracks have really bad bends which can drastically alter the race outcome.

Jim

Thanks Jim,
I will make sure that I include a front runner in each trail from now on.

Cheers,
Paul

My trials are easier, i don’t record anything until I have filtered down the the last 15. And then it’s a simple ‘x’ for a win and ‘I’ for 2nd and 3rd. All I am looking for is consistency since it’s impossible to try and account for ever race condition. And yes the factors you mention happen a lot, you’ll go mad trying to account for everything, and cream always rises…..

Yes I think I have over complicated mine, but I wanted to be thorough!

I do mine as a combination of jim an Josh I think. I used to be a bit free, and I ended up with a lot of hold up horses that just struggled on anything with a bend in the league. Down to having too many pacemakers an the fields being too large.

Now I always trial first like Josh with no records an get rid of anything finishing in the bottom 10, 2 races running. This gets rid of deadwood with no CK ability. This is always done on a straight track like Newmarket. Once I'm down to the last 15 or so, I add in my best horses to the trials from before, takes me to about 20-22 horses in total. I then use a track based on the league races available. An example, 6f, my trials are at Ascot, 1m2 my trials are also at ascot, 5 on good to soft, 5 on good, an 5 on good to firm, with a scoring system. If you want, then have another set with the best again, but on a tight turning track. This set will be down to about 15 or less an for 6f I do Randwick. This will give you horses who can take the straight track, and the turning, it also replicates the league races quite well.

this is easier for me as my games are broken down into distances, so my trials will only ever be over 1 distance. I put more time into my trials than I do playing each season, in my opinion, it's the most important part of being successful in the league. Others may differ tho

Sounds like a very good idea to start off with no records and get rid of the rubbish early on, will save me a lot of time in the long run, so I will implement that at my next season's trial.

I have a few flat races in mind that I would like to target eventually in the League - Guineas, Oaks, Derby, Melbourne Cup - so I trial my 3yo's over 1m at Newmarket, 1m4f at Epsom and 2m at Flemington. They are possibly a little young at this stage for 2m, but you get an idea as to whether they can stay or not, so I know whether they are worth keeping hold of. I then plan to trial them again over 2m as 4yo's (just haven't got that far with my save yet!).

Thanks for the advice.
Paul

I don't have very big stables. My flat breeding barn will have 80 mares max and about 12-15 stallions. I only keep the best of the best and all horses in the barn have proven themselves in the CK.

My flat racing stable usually has a max of 60 horses, roughly split 25 x 2yo, 20 x 3yo & 15 x 4yo.

I export and trial at the end of every season. For some reason my 2yo don't have much progression in their realised potential so I only export about 6 x 2yo. I get a big jump in potential at 3yo so all horses are exported and also export all 4yo. So on average I export about 40 horese at the end of each season.

Because the 40 exports are split up by age and distance, my end of season trialing is very straight forward. All horses to be trialled fit into one race when split up by age in distance, usually works out at a max of 12-14 horses per race.

I run races at 5f, 6f, 8f (split filly\colt), 10f, 12f (split filly\colt), 14f & 16f. At the moment I have no horses that are any good at a longer distance.

Every race has the best 3 horses from previous trials.

I run 3 trial races taking note of any horse that doesn't finish within a reaonable distance of a previous good horse. The reasonable distance varies by race distance. The donkeys are then removed from field.

I run 3 more races at each age\distance taking a note of first 3 past the post.

The results of last 3 races determines the fate of my horses as far as breeding goes. I send horses to the barn at the end of their 4yo career.
For a stallion to be sent to the barn, he has to have proven himself to be better than my existing best stallions. With mares I am looking for mares that have done well in the CK but may also have an X factor, this is very subjective, hard to put into words.


When it comes to the league, I have all the notes from above trials, so usually have only about 15 possibilities for each race\distance. These trials are run in much more detail. Very similar to Vinny, straight tracks, tight tracks, speed or stamina tracks.


Jim

Thanks Jim,

That's a very detailed description of how you go about it and has given me some good ideas for the future.

It's great to hear all of your methods and how each of you go about it. If I can take a little bit from all of you and apply it to my trials, I'm sure I'll be on my way to being successful in the long term.

A lot of work ahead of me especially to try and get to level where I can be competitive for the next season, but it will stand me in good stead for when S08 hopefully arrives later in the year.

Cheers,
Paul