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Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6028 |
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Author: | davylad [ Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:39 pm ] |
Post subject: | Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
![]() -0445 Akasaka finished 4th in his Maiden chase in Ireland and followed that with 4th in a G2 event at Wincanton. He has the form to win a race of this calibre but with top weight it will be no easy matter. -46 Dollar Magic was 2L behind Akasaka in that G2 race at Wincanton and is 5lbs better off at the weights so there shouldn't be much between these two at the finish. -076 Sally showing signs of improvement with each race and if this slightly shorter trip suits then it could be thereabouts come the end of the race. -40 Flaming Ice was a good 4th in a G3 race at Doncaster but could only manage 12th place next time behind Akasaka and Dollar Magic in a G2 race. The extra furlong and heavy ground may go against this one today but it's one to keep an eye on in future races. -PF3 Pacific Stone had his problems early season but the trainer seems to have sorted this ones jumping out as his 3rd in the Betfair handicap chase shows. He's shown he can handle heavy ground but the drop in trip may not suit. -56F4 Vindication was a decent 5th in it's maiden chase but has since fell at Cheltenham and although jumping poorly at Aintree did manage to finish 4th in a handicap and is on the same mark today. -5785 Angela Nine is 10lbs better off with Akasaka when just over 2l behind that one when they met in a maiden race and is closely matched with Vindication on it's last run. A sound jumper who could go well. -706F Past Performances was behind Angela Nine in a week 1 maiden but got the better of her in a listed race at Sligo 2 weeks later. Will have to improve it's jumping to play a hand in this race. -0FF Neptune Colonge was well beaten on it's debut and 2 weeks later fell and picked up an injury at Down Royal. Against the vets advice the trainer sent it to Aintree the following week where it duly fell at the 5th. Not one to be trusted. -007 Secret Spy Form figures make this spy no secret, midfield finishes in 3 races to date he is 6lb better off with Pacific Stone but has to find at least 4l to reverse placings. Should get round safely. -0 Darabacca has only had one race and that was in week 1 when finishing 7l behind Angela Nine. Will need to improve a lot to get in the places. -0900 The Forrest Well beaten in it's maiden race over a trip that looked too short it ran much better next time in a G3 event over 2m5f. Although only finishing 9th it was only just over 2l behind the winner and 1l behind Flaming Ice and is 7lb better off with that rival today. The way it finished that race suggests the extra furlong will suit it perfectly. 0000 Bonnie And Clyde Interesting runner who has raced over 2m4f and 3m at hurdles and chases. If 2m6f suits this one then it could be on a handy mark, if not then it could have the same fate as the real Bonnie and Clyde. -090F New Zealand Best run to date was 9th in a maiden race beaten less than 5l, if it gets the extra 2f and stays on its feet then it could be in with a squeak 000 Rapitup Bingo finished behind New Zealand over 2m4f and nothing to suggest it will reverse places over 2m6f. 0000 Square Mile A sound jumper who has been racing in group company tries a drop in trip and class. Racing off a low weight this one could spring a surprise although the ground is a major concern. 00 Cheap Shot Beaten over 20l on its maiden debut it then ran in a G2 race where it finished 13/14. 24lb better off with Akasaka who it finished 9l behind doesn't tempt me to back this one who makes more than the odd mistake. -0PF Mundo Domingo finished last in the only race it has finished to date so that gives it bottom weight. It showed some promise LTO when travelling well in 5th place and about to challenge when falling at the 3rd last fence. I can't see past The Forrest in this race, it has good form in Group company,on a handy mark and I think the trip will also suit. Angela Nine looks a decent sort and should be thereabouts. Square Mile is an outsider that could go well and sneak a place. |
Author: | simpleminds [ Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:59 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
Good read and i just love other peoples preveiws well done davylad ![]() |
Author: | 17days [ Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:48 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
Great write up Davylad ![]() Hope you are right about my horse Square Mile, she wont like the going, but the horse is better than her form figures suggests |
Author: | deltanion [ Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:00 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
very good read |
Author: | The Duke [ Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
Good read mate, best of luck with the selection. |
Author: | pst193 [ Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
Davylad - I know you work out the weights using the ratings but how do you know top weight will be 11st 12lb? The other preview has top weight of 12st. I done a preview the other week but did the weights were not showing in TOM and I forgot about group penalties which screwed up my predictions! |
Author: | davylad [ Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:06 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
pst193 wrote: Davylad - I know you work out the weights using the ratings but how do you know top weight will be 11st 12lb? The other preview has top weight of 12st. I done a preview the other week but did the weights were not showing in TOM and I forgot about group penalties which screwed up my predictions! I wasn't sure what the top weight would be so I set up a race in the CK with my horses and gave them the ratings for the race, with it being a handicap I didnt have to worry about penalties which would be a nightmare. On the subject of Group race penalties am I right in thinking that if you pick up a penalty in either code then that penalty will be applied in both codes? |
Author: | David1uk [ Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:30 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Week 5 Preview Betfred Pools Handicap Chase |
great write up davylad |
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