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CK Freak Times
http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7368		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  akhc [ Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  CK Freak Times
I've been doing some trialling to try and figure out my best runners at different distances and one thing I've noticed a lot of a freak times. I could accept one in the odd while but in my tests at 10f I'm struggling to know what to do with them i.e whether to just throw the results out completely or how to factor them into choosing my best runners. What do others do? Do you just ignore these?

The problem is there isn't any rhyme/reason to when these show up and some are freakily fast. Anyone have any ideas why they show up and if breeding these horses would be a good idea?

Answers on a postcard please.

Just in case anyone is wondering here's an example of 3 races which I saved. In one spell of testing today I saw 5/15 races with such low times. Usually I'd expect to clock anywhere from 2:07:8 to 2:08:2 for 10f.

Image


Just a few other thoughts. These freak times tend to occur most often on Ascot. Not sure if that's relevant. I can't remember seeing any freak times on Epsom at 12f for example (which is where I test all my 12f horses) and I can remember seeing the odd freak time at Donny at 14f (again I mostly test my 14f horses here) but on Ascot at distances greater than 8f they crop up and quite regularly for me. How did Ascot come to be the default track for CK testing and why (if there was any other reason other than it's right on top!?).
Author:  nashwan [ Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
Mine do the same thats why i dont like trailing at Ascot i have started trailing at Newcastle
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
i ignore freak times and use a pts system to find most consistant
Author:  akhc [ Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
i ignore freak times and use a pts system to find most consistant


I normally ignore them too but I'm seeing them not infrequently and just wondering if anyone had any experience breeding lots of these. Might be worth trying I guess to see if these horses can lead to big drops in times run.
Author:  keithbeaky [ Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
I've not trialled recently but I haven't had that many freaks. I use Newmarket as it only has one bend and normally less trouble in running. I still use Ascot for my main trials
Author:  nick_driver [ Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
This has been the same since SO3 I believe, every 1 in 10 race or so would be ran in a substantially quicker time than the rest, I'm sure it's been stressed before that it is mainly about consistency. I always run 5-10 races at each distance seperated between grounds i.e 2/3 races on heavy/soft/good/firm for each distance and more often than normal the horses that win these freak races, do not win again. But it does happen a lot and enough to chuck a spanner in your works!
Author:  blazingbailey [ Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
I have just started trialing at Newmarket for the first time last night, and the times were remarkably consistent. The top 3 horses all rand within 0.1 of a sec for 5 times in a row. At Ascot they tend to vary to around 0.5secs+.
Author:  akhc [ Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
I still prefer Ascot for trialling though. Ascot seems to be the "slowest" of all courses that are flat. It's a more testing (for the horses) course and I guess two horses could post similar times on a faster course but on Ascot the difference becomes apparent.
Author:  blazingbailey [ Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
akhc wrote:
I still prefer Ascot for trialling though. Ascot seems to be the "slowest" of all courses that are flat. It's a more testing (for the horses) course and I guess two horses could post similar times on a faster course but on Ascot the difference becomes apparent.


Thats what I always thought but I now think Newmarket is more consistent whilst at the same time being a fair track. It didnt make any runners perform any better or anything like that but there was a clear gap in times between the good and the not so good each time I ran the trial, unlike Ascot where they tended to be a lot more mixed. The top ones at Ascot were still the top at Newmarket but they ran to a consistent time on each run.

That is only one night of trialing so it could be my horses, and it will probably be completely different when I next get on the comp! :shock:
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
wow just had a pacemaker that stayed on & clocked 206.04 for 1m2f ascot good
now that is a freak time :shock:
Author:  akhc [ Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
Just looking at this again as I've been doing quite a bit of trialling getting my breeding plans in place and I have seen a few more freak times.

I'm coming around to thinking that freak times are an indicator of what is achievable with time and breeding.

Looking back at this thread, I posted than 2:7:4 at Ascot (10f) looked like a freak time.. well I know now that it's possible to achieve that.

I'd previously thought 2:58:3 at Doncaster (14f) was a freak time (when I was clocking 2:59:7) but I know see horses going under 2:59 and 2:58:3 isn't a million miles away.

So along those lines here are a few more freak times from this round of testing.

Ascot 14f - 2:58:38
Newcastle 10f - 2:05:41

These are at least 3s faster than what I would expect to see generally.

Anyone seen any other freak times?
Author:  leonvr [ Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
lol will stick to NH my horses don't get anywhere near these times and haven't had much time to play the game. Have played 3 seasons since the league started
Author:  akhc [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
Here's another freak time I've seen just today - Doncaster 1m6.5f. I usually see 3:04:50 ish

Image
Author:  DocHay [ Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
Image
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CK Freak Times
wow 206 :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:
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