pjrhodes1970 wrote:
wow that would be a big ask to do the triple crown the lge is so competitive
i think it will be tougher to do than it would in real life
but if any1 can you can
I think it's a tall ask and one thing I'm sure off is that next season will be even more competitive. Having said that I think with a little bit of breeding I'm sure I can get Epsom and Donny round about the 2:29:1-4 and 3:06:0-4 range and that is going to be reasonably competitive to win.
At Epsom 2:29 is a barrier I've only broken as a freak race though I do think it's one that can be broken but perhaps not by a horse that is going for such a range of distances. I would hope 2:29ish to be competitive for next season.
Donny.. well we'll see how fast the time is but going by the races so far I think I have a good chance with Suleviae and I think her time will be around the 3:06:1-2 mark though she can go faster. Again 3:06ish should be good enough next season.
Cairns123 wrote:
yeah lack of pace in the classics may be the downfall to your triple crown bid. if u trained the horse to run handily through its races it might have a good chance.
The lack of pace isn't that much of an issue at Epsom/Donny. Tatosi/Yima clocked 2:29:52/2:29:44 off a first 2f time of 27:2/27:0. Contrast that to the example above where Zemlya ran 2:29:30ish off a 2s faster pace. I know she can clock similar times off the slower pace and I really don't see pace/lack of pace as an issue for races in the league longer than 1m2+ At 1m2f this is dependant on the course but at 1m4+ in my testing pace (regardless of course) really doesn't figure .
It's the Guineas that will be the biggest stumbling block. Paradoxically there pace is probably my biggest worry. At fast pace I see times round about 1:37:1. Without pace and with a horse with the right instructions I might have a shot as the race will end up somewhere between 1:37:5 and 1:38. In a fast race I don't see how I can find .5s for a horse that essentially is a stayer but I'll have to see what breeding brings in the next 2 months.
At any rate it's one race which will determine it next season as the Guineas is the first of the lot. Something to aim for but I suspect it's a very long shot but I think it's possible which is testament to how Mark has tweaked the distances horses can get in SO5.