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Grand National 2012
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Author:  anubisrich [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Bought down by On His Own who was having his 7th start over fences. The connections particularly will be distraught. Mullins frequently sends out horses too inexperienced (The Midnight Club last year, Dooneys Gate fatally, Homer Wells pulled up and never the same again)

Made this list as part of my trends analysis, Horse/Number of chase starts/Result. This is the bottom of the table.

Tharawaat 12 Fell
Giles Cross 12 Fell
Always Right 11 Fell
Becauseicouldntsee 11 Fell
Midnight Haze 10 Last
Synchronised 9 Fell
Weird Al 9 Fell
Shakalakaboomboom  9 9th
Junior 8 Fell
Quiscover Fontaine 7 Fell
On His Own 6 Fell
Cappa Bleu 6 4th
Viking Blond 5 Fell
Author:  panther [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Tharawaat finished 8th, and Giles Cross was pulled up. Always Right and Becauseicouldntsee were both unseated riders.

I agree though, there are many horses that run in the National that simply shouldn't be there.
Author:  panther [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Only just read that Neptune Collonges has now been retired. Great way to go out, and there obviously wouldn't have been any point in trying to win again next year as a 12yo under likely top weight.
Author:  anubisrich [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Sorry I copy and pasted wrong with Tharawaat, should be Organisedconfusion.
Author:  DocHay [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Mclernon was a non trier :lol:

cmon now rich, I think you have gave yourself a few too many rights aswell!

Seabass dished out some serious egg to face, his season has been the training performance of the year IMO from Ted Walsh. Was up there all the way and a couple of mistakes have cost him at the end, hes finished 5 lengths 3rd well in front of horses like Cappa Bleu, Ballabriggs and Hello Bud so he stayed the trip all right. The classiest horse in the race won and a well handicapped horse finished second.

And dont forget, Seabass was running off an 18 pound higher mark than his last run in a handicap, the handicapper finally got him, but he stays the trip.
Author:  daveyboy [ Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
anubisrich wrote:
Bought down by On His Own who was having his 7th start over fences. The connections particularly will be distraught. Mullins frequently sends out horses too inexperienced (The Midnight Club last year, Dooneys Gate fatally, Homer Wells pulled up and never the same again)

Made this list as part of my trends analysis, Horse/Number of chase starts/Result. This is the bottom of the table.

Tharawaat 12 Fell
Giles Cross 12 Fell
Always Right 11 Fell
Becauseicouldntsee 11 Fell
Midnight Haze 10 Last
Synchronised 9 Fell
Weird Al 9 Fell
Shakalakaboomboom  9 9th
Junior 8 Fell
Quiscover Fontaine 7 Fell
On His Own 6 Fell
Cappa Bleu 6 4th
Viking Blond 5 Fell


And Cappa Bleu the only horse on there under 9 runs to finish has a wealth of PTP experience i think 4 more races over points
Author:  nick_driver [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
anubisrich wrote:
Why did Richie McLernon only use the whip twice on Sunnyhillboy and then put his whip down til he was passed? Extremely poor ride.

I said earlier in the thread, if I had a Group class horse I wouldn't send it to the National. Ridiculous. They need to make the prize money less than G1 races to stop attracting chancers, horses competing must have run over 10 times over fences, won a class 2 chase over 3m minimum and placed in a race with more than 12 runners that season as well as having run at least 3 times. The number of horses needs to be dropped to 30, the start needs to be moved closer to the first as well and raise the minimum age to 9.

Do all of that and Synchronised wouldn't have been able to run, State of Play (who brought down two) wouldn't have run, Weird Al (looking like he wont make it) wouldn't qualify, West End Rocker (fell), On His Own (fell), Always Right (fell), Organisedconfusion (fell), Arbor Supreme (refused), Killyglen (fell), Quiscover (fell), Becauseicouldntsee (fell) etc. etc.

Spot a pattern? The trends are undeniable. These were my predictions: not sure what odds would have been on it...

Quote:
SYNCHRONISED - Dont think he'll complete Right
BALLABRIGGS - Same, pulled up 2nd circuit Very wrong
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM - Win chance Right
WEST END ROCKER - Not good enough to win, place possibilities Right and Wrong, not good enough and fell going too fast (should have been withdrawn when rain didn't come
CAPPA BLEU - Same Right
JUNIOR - doubt he'll complete, possible first fence faller Right
ON HIS OWN - faller Right
SUNNYHILLBOY - win chance, likely place Right
CHICAGO GREY - lower place chance Right, bought down by horse that shouldnt have been there
GILES CROSS - not soft enough to make weight pay, possible faller Right
ORGANISEDCONFUSION - too inexperienced, mistake to bring him here this year Right
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE - jumping concerns, if not faller place chance Right
KILLYGLEN - no Right
SEABASS - too far, pulled up when Katie gets tired Close to Right
TREACLE - office sweepstake so don't want to say anything bad but he'll almost certainly fall Right
ALWAYS RIGHT - better ground a blessing, place chance if completes Right - didn't complete
ACCORDING TO PETE - would want it softer, probably 10th place but could be surprise package Right - brought down in strong position
PLANET OF SOUND - doubt he'll complete, lack of big race experience Pretty much right, completely faded out of it at the business end
BLACK APALACHI - getting on, e/w possibility Wrong
CALGARY BAY - strong place chance Wrong, finished but well back


Close to right?? It finished 3rd, 5 lengths away!!! Hardly pulled up now is it, You and Ryan really need to give Seabass, Ted and Katie credit where credit is due for a relatively in experienced horse and rider (first run in the national for both of them!!) to be in the top 5 the whole way round and finish that close?? Everyone is allowed their own opinion but that was a HUGE run from Seabass whatever way you look at it, I mean the thing had never won over 3 miles and it goes and finishes 5 lengths away from a Grade 1 horse, over the toughest C & D known to a racehorse.... I don't normally rant but I'm not having a bad word about Seabass being said after that run and it's not because I backed it!!
Author:  HurricaneRun [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Woah woah woah

I give seabass all the credit in the world and well done to anyone who made each way money off him!!he ran better than i expected him to but the fact remains i was right about him - he was never going to win that race and i cannot believe neptune collonges was 33/1 with form he had on offer hence why i threw a few quid on him and a couple of orher big prices!!!

I may get shot at for being sexist but one of main things putting me off seabass was the jockey!! Katie walsh is a good jockey and she rides thousand stars great among others but the fact remains that women are at a serious disadvantage against men over that kind of marathon!it is a scientific fact and seabass under ruby or ap, for example, would have gone mighty close!!
Author:  Mitch [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
HurricaneRun wrote:
Woah woah woah

I give seabass all the credit in the world and well done to anyone who made each way money off him!!he ran better than i expected him to but the fact remains i was right about him - he was never going to win that race and i cannot believe neptune collonges was 33/1 with form he had on offer hence why i threw a few quid on him and a couple of orher big prices!!!

I may get shot at for being sexist but one of main things putting me off seabass was the jockey!! Katie walsh is a good jockey and she rides thousand stars great among others but the fact remains that women are at a serious disadvantage against men over that kind of marathon!it is a scientific fact and seabass under ruby or ap, for example, would have gone mighty close!!


I don't see how it is scientific fact that women are disadvantaged to men to win in the national. It is all down to chance it was 38 of 40 runners had male jockeys to chances were a male jockey would win. Not that a woman rode seabass at all.
Author:  exxplozion [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Seabass ran a fantastic race and Neptune Collonges deserved to win the race and would have won if AP or Ruby or even God was riding Sunnyhillboy, the horse goes out on a career high and thoroughly deserves his name amongst the greats!!
Shame about According To Pete because I think it would have been thereabouts at the end and Synchronised just proves to what I have always thought that NO gold cup winner will ever repeat what Golden Miller did in the 30's, he was exceptional!!!
Author:  Acko [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
HurricaneRun, don't understand how you can say you knew Seabass was never going to win. At the last, he still had a chance and that was still after making a few blunders before hand. Think RM could have been a bit stronger in the finish but he knows the horse better than all bar 1 probably so I'm not going to criticise!
Author:  panther [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
exxplozion wrote:
... and Synchronised just proves to what I have always thought that NO gold cup winner will ever repeat what Golden Miller did in the 30's, he was exceptional!!!


With the National weights being decided before the Gold Cup is run, I think the only way the double would ever even be attempted again is if a big outsider causes a huge upset in the Gold Cup, then has the option of running in the National off a very decent weight. In the '91 and '92 Nationals, the Gold Cup winners from each of those seasons (Garrison Savannah and Cool Ground) both ran in the National off just 11st 1lb, as they had not been among the Gold Cup favourites prior to winning. They finished 2nd and 10th respectively in the Nationals of those years.
Author:  anubisrich [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
I was surprised that Seabass was so close in the end and it was a very good training performance. But everyone against him was citing stamina concerns (only 3m victory was in a PTP) and they were proved right, the horse jumped the last trading odds on in running and went out like a light. Would've finished 10L behind SHB had McLernon not held him up :lol:

edit: Neptune Collonges is as good as a GC winner (beaten by two of the all time greats) and he made it. The handicapper is being much more lenient towards the top end of the handicap which is why we've seen Don't Push It (11st5lbs) and Neptune (11st6lbs) win as well as many other high weights place recently but also the race is attracting higher quality horses. I think a GC winner can win the GN but I just don't think they should try it in the National's current, dangerous format.
Author:  Acko [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
But they always say the GN favours a 2 and a half mile horse and in reality, Seabass has been this. Great training performance though from Walsh considering Seabass' last race was a win in a 2mile Grade 2!
Author:  Ubar02 [ Sun Apr 15, 2012 10:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National 2012
Acko wrote:
But they always say the GN favours a 2 and a half mile horse and in reality, Seabass has been this. Great training performance though from Walsh considering Seabass' last race was a win in a 2mile Grade 2!

This showed with crisp in the '73 national. Won the queen mother 2 years before, didn't stay the next year in the gold cup, and then the next year was only just beaten in the national!
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