Alright, the last few weekends have started the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the new year. El Kabeir won the Jerome, Calculator won the Sham, and many more races for 3yos are coming up this month.
My Early Top 10:
1- American Pharoah
2- Texas Red
3- Calculator
4- Dortmund
5- El Kabeir
6- Nasa
7- Frosted
8- Blofeld
9- Rock Shandy
10- Upstart

A horse to watch is Calculator. Besides his win in the Sham, he comes from a very important sire-line, the Godolphin Arabian sire-line. No Godolphin Arabian direct descendent has won the Kentucky Derby since War Admiral. Calculator could break that. The interesting thing here is while Tiznow is the main survivor of the sire-line, Calculator doesn't come from Tiznow. If he makes the field, watch out, history could be made.

My big hope is Punctuate of Baffert's. By unbeaten pepper's pride might be more a miler.

And a real long shot is Ghost Bay, a Maryland bred by Ghostzapper. Normally Zappers don't show to much at 2 but he was impressive in winning the Laurel Futurity.

The Run to the roses is beginning to hot up now and the Holly Bull has just sorted the contenders from the pretenders, Upstart was a easy winner and look's like a genuine contender where Frosted look's like a pretender who has a funny head carriage or is still green, seen that a few times he's run and I don't like it. For the rest of the field it looks like their derby dream is over.

One horse to look out for is Khozan, he ran out a impressive 7F maiden winner. I think it was the best performance by a 3yo so far this year. His time was 0.75 quicker than the winner of the Hutcheson and was slowing up at the end where Barbados was still going flat out. I'm not sure if they will aim him for the derby but he looks like a seriously good horse in the making. A 1mill dollar purchase by the new kids on the block( Al Shaqab) looks like a bargain, his sister's are Crown Queen Gp1 winner last year and the Mighty Royal Delta.

I think we seen the Queen's Plate winner today, a horse called Unbridled Juan finished 3rd in a 6f maiden and is bred in purple and is a Canadian bred. Ran on really well after some bumping and look's like a mile+ horse in the making.

Not sure what to make of today's Withers Stakes, El Kabeir ran a disappointing race and the winner( Far from Over) was a bit of a shock winner. It was only his second ever race and looks a stayer but I'm not sure what to make of the race, probably will go for the Gotham next and that might tell us if he's a serious derby contender.

There was a great battle on the west coast between two of the big hitters there in Dortmund( named after the football team) and Firing Line when they went head to head again and Dortmund prevailed again in a photo. These two look like they going head to head all the way to Kentucky.


American Pharoah the best looking two year old has just started working and so has Carpe Diem, two of the big hitters for the derby.

I think Far From Over was one of the most impressive performances I have seen for a while, for me he is the derby winner, incredible

WOW thats the most amazing comeback i have seen in a good while FAR FROM OVER (Perfectly Named)
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80nkS6pd3v8 … for those who did not see it

He ran green too came there on the bridal some horse could this be Pletchers Year for the Kentucky Derby

The Mighty Khozan ran his second life time race( Gulfstream) tonight and blew his rivals away by over 12 Lengths, this horse could be very special. I'm still not sure he wants 1m2f the Derby distance because he's got so much natural speed(aka Ghostzapper) but he looks special.

Upstart won yesterdays Fountain of Youth very nicely though he did get DQ but was the best horse in the race and seems like he's getting better the further he goes, Frosted looked green last time but now just looks like a dog.

The Other Derby prep race was the Risen Star at Fairgrounds and the first two in Lacomte finished first( International Star) and second( War story) again, the form looks average but I suppose they will move on to the Louisiana Derby next and then we will find out how good they are.

Good trials tonight, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and El Kaiber all running. I think this looks potentially the best crop of US 3yo's since 2007, but 3 or 4 them will have to step up and show it.

Prospect Park is the one I like, 12/1 in the San Felipe tonight against Dortmund and 40/1 for the Derby.

Throw in the older horses and we will have one great dirt racing season. The older division is the strongest since my Zapper raced in 2004.

Don't forget tonight's Santa Anita H'cap, Shared Belief should smash them. The horse they will all have to beat this year.

My Horse ( Khozan) is out of the running for the derby, hopefully he will be back later on.

I expect a Big performance from Carpe Diem at Tampa and will be interesting to see how Daredevil get's on in a bit.

One horse to watch out for is Wisecracker in the 8.30 at Gulfstream,a Godolphin horse who got beat first time out against Khozan. Looked a nice horse for the future.

US Racing is so interesting right now. With this 3 yo crop and Shared Belief, Bayern, CC... running their 4yo season.

I think one point is, that the US don't retire healthy horses after the 3yo season that often. And i feel that US owners breed to race and not race to breed like in Europe. (Plus, thank god that Shared Belief is gelded.)

Imagine Sea the Moon, Kingman, Taghrooda, Australia still racing in Europe and they would all meet at Champions Stakes or Prix Arc de triomphe at some point.
(I know some of them had "career-ending" injuries)


PS:
I think Dortmund looks like the best 3 yo right now.

Nice pic of the horse Paul - photoshop?

American Pharaoh for me

The second best two year old Carpe Diem won well last week and this weekend we get to see the top 2 year old American Pharoah. Looked outstanding last year and should win without to much fuss, I think will be clear fav for the derby after the race.

I was going to back Khozan at 25-1 last weekend only for him to go lame the next day but I'm tempted to back the Pharoah before he runs tomm because he's 10-1.

It's good to see Untapable + Tapiture return on the same card.

Just doped the Rebel Stakes. I shall take a chance that American Pharoah off the layoff after the injury may be susceptible to being beat. Bold Conquest looks perfectly prepped for this after his first start of the year. Second start is exactly 3 weeks later which is just right. A workout just 9 days after his last race tells me he has been kicking down the barn door to get back on the track. Place and show bets on Bold Conquest seem a sure thing and if Pharoah misfires you will have huge prices.

The Pharoah is back. Should be around a 2-1 shot after that, bye bye 10-1

Looking back at his race the final half furlong 6.02 was the quickest fraction of the race and means there's more to come. My favourite trial next week the Sunland Derby.

There's one reason why the Kentucky Derby is miles better than our derby and that is u get 4 month's worth of warm up races compared to about 4 races over here.