Btw. Made some Euros because of your Bold conquest recommendation thx and keep it up :p

Congrats Eneaver. Bold Conquest barely held third so it was no revelation. The hope was American Pharoah didn't fire and would finish off the board thus producing astronomical prices. I expect Bold Conquest to really improve on a dry track and also being allowed to settle and rally off a fast pace.

Today we have the Spiral Stakes and I will give this a go. Once again we have a race filled with speed. Not sure if speed rules at Turfway so beware. I will choose a late runner longshot who merits some place and show respect along with a decent chance of winning.



Wireless Future is bred to get the mile and an eighth and then some. Go back to his debut race where he pressed a hot pace in a 7 furlong sprint race and faltered badly. Three races later he is rating nicely off a decent pace and winning in a mile turf race at the Fairgrounds. His next race he thumps a field in an off the turf race - winning on a dirt track first time. Undefeated with Florent Geroux it appears these two get along very well together. He is running faster last quarters than the previous quarters so his late run is real. The solid turf form should mean he will like the polytrack too. 44 days since his last race is the big ? Is this a prep or is this an all out assault? Has kept up a very vigorous workout regimen so my guess is he is well meant today.

I think the first and third( Metaboss+Conquest Typhoon) in the El Camino derby will finish first and second in this trial. But this time Conquest Typhoon will win, Mike Smith is coming over with it so they must mean business.

I took a stand on those two. Conquest Typhoon is the class. When they take him back he runs well. I don't like how he seems to choke going longer than a mile. Metaboss ran a career race last out and may bounce? Tapeta specialist too maybe?

My Fav Derby trail tomm the Sunland Derby. It should be a walk in the Park for Firing Line who's been butting heads with Dortmund.

Alright, so I have spent the last few days compiling data and watch every single race over and over again to figure out what is up with all these horses. So (as seen on my blog), here is my Top Ten:

1- Dortmund: I think Dortmund is by far the best in this field. While I do think American Pharoah is a great horse, Dortmund has put on one amazing performance after another. His San Felipe win is the second fastest prep using Furlong/Second analysis of the 100 and 50 point prep races. He has contested every pace and comes out of California, which has had many strong winners in the Derby in recent years, like California Chrome and I'll Have Another. My biggest fear is that as a front runner he won't be able to stay the trip, but I think he is a class above most of this field.

2- Firing Line: I said that Dortmund had the second fastest prep and who is he second to, this rival right here. Firing Line ran a dominating Sunland Derby, and although the fast speed can be attributed to the constant wind that goes down the stretch helping runners at Sunland Park, how he has been able to run with Dortmund is very impressive. Firing Line isn't a front runner either, like Dortmund, and is in fact a nice stalker. He makes his move right before the far turn and has great pulling away speed. If he can start around the middle to front of the pack off the pacemakers, he should be able to use his speed to blow past the competition.

3- American Pharoah: While most have him on the top of their charts, American Pharoah has turned me off with not how he ran, but where. I feel like he took on of the easier routes to the Derby. His runs were very impressive nonetheless. The probable Derby favorite has done nothing wrong in his last four races. He is a front runner though, and when he matches up with Dortmund, I fear that he won't be able to keep up. I will most likely use him, but there are some doubts.

4- Mubtaahij: My eyes have been on this horse since the UAE 2000 Guineas. Although losing to Maftool, Mubtaahij has been very impressive on the dirt in Dubai, getting 4 wins from 5 runs, and getting better. His UAE Derby win was most impressive, even after being boxed in for the most part and having no room to run until 300m to the wire, he pulled away with ease. Could it be that the field was not as strong as what he will face come the First Saturday in May? Maybe; but his strong running and very impressive running late has made him a major contender. And I can only see him relishing the extra distance. If he wins the Derby, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the Triple Crown. He is the only horse in this field who I think has that chance.

5- Itsaknockout: I hated the Florida preps. They were all incredibly slow and basically no horse ran well late. Itsaknockout caught my eye however. In his runner up finish in the Fountain of Youth, he ran with such a slow pace that he couldn't run by. I think he will run so much better with a faster pace, which is expected in the Derby. Longshot opportunity.

6- Far Right: Far Right had a nice win over the slop in the Southwest before a runner up finish to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby. Far Right is the only deep closer in the project field (and one of very few closers overall). Deep closers have done well in the Derby as of late, alla Commanding Curve and Golden Soul. While not my pick to win, definitely a great chance to hit the board, and at a price.

7- El Kabeir: While the New York preps weren't all that impressive, El Kabeir stood out. He is an early closer who works up little by little as the race progresses. He has shown the ability to win. While the paces were slow in New York, he should only improve with the pace increase and seems to take a liking to fast paces. My live longshot.

8- Upstart: Last year, Upstart beat my early Derby pick, Bustin It (who romped over International Star). After a 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, this son of Flatter went to Florida. In three slow races, he was able to win the Holy Bull, get to the wire first in the Fountain of Youth (where he was DQed to second), and a nice runner up finish in the Florida Derby. Slow pace has killed him though, and should take the step up well. He is a very strong runner who keeps pushing on.

9- Danzig Moon: This horse isn't something to write home about, having never won past his maiden victory, in his third attempt. However, he does most of his work late and loves a fast pace; in fact, he relishes it. He has improved well with the increase in distance to a mile and an eighth and may very well love going the Derby distance. Live longshot.

10- Bolo: Rounding out the field is Bolo, the third place finisher behind Dortmund in his last two starts. He is young and a little unruly, but I don't think we have seen his best. While his form may lead him to be more of a turf horse, I can't discount his flexibility on where to run, whether close to or off the pace. He will need to put on a career best performance to win, but I don't think it is out of the question.

This top ten is how I would rank the contenders, not necessarily how much I like them. If I were to bet money on two horses in this race right now, they would be Firing Line and Mubtaahij. Those are my Derby picks right now.

Straight from my blog, Horse Racing Station, here are Contenders and Pretenders in this years Derby.
In alphabetical order:

American Pharoah (Contender): Many people’s Derby pick and one of Baffert’s two runners, American Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby in exciting fashion. His Arkansas Derby was just slightly faster than Dortmund’s Santa Anita Derby win (and Santa Anita usually draws some fast times). He loves being up front and has a fighting spirit. Even if Dortmund is up front, be sure to see American Pharoah dictate the pace, whether from a stalking or front running spot. His late turn of foot is key however, and can use that, whether on a fast track or off track.

Bolo (Contender): Bolo has run third to Dortmund in the last two races, but both times put up great finishing times. His third place finish in the San Felipe was faster than that of Dortmund’s Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby wins, as well as American Pharoah’s Arkansas Derby win (all of which are done using furlong/second numbers). Bolo has the ability to stay close to the pace or off the pace, which is very important in what should be a fast going Derby. One big fear is that he is very unruly and young, so it will be important for Bejarano to keep him under wraps. I will use him for his speed mainly as well as his adaptability.

Carpe Diem (Pretender): This Pletcher runner has four firsts and a second already and was the winner of the Blue Grass; he ran a very fast race and performed well. So how is he a pretender? It is his youth. He is uneven early, isn’t a strong runner down the stretch, and needs a tiring front runner to win. While he will probably get the last one, the being good early is important in the Derby. He needs maybe one or two more races before being able to approach the level of talent horses like American Pharoah and Dortmund have.

Danzig Moon (Contender): This son of Malibu Moon has a nice running style. Danzig Moon stays in the pack and just steadily stays where he is. Then, late, he rushes up. He does a lot of work late. The increased distance should help him here. He is a longshot chance, and was rather impressive in his Blue Grass runner up effort.

Dortmund (Contender): Baffert’s other workhorse, Dortmund, is a speedster. Posting an amazing speed in the San Felipe, and pretty good in the Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby, Dortmund is all fight. Outlasting Firing Line in basically a match race in the Robert B. Lewis, he is a fighter. However, that being said, he is a front runner, which does not fair well for him in the Derby. The good thing is that he sets somewhat slow fractions early and just darts away late. If he doesn’t get pressured too much, he could run away from the field.

El Kabeir (Contender): The second of three horses for Zayat Stables, El Kabeir has been spending his preps in New York. His best running was done early this year, in a runner-up effort in the Withers. El Kabeir needs a fast pace to run in to, which he most likely will get and works well with a fast pace. He gains ground very quickly down the stretch. He is definitely a live longshot.

Far Right (Contender): Took me a while to decide how much I like this horse in the Derby. He passed tiring horses in the Arkansas Derby for his runner up finish and his Southwest was very slow and on a wet track (also much slower than American Pharoah’s Rebel win that was also on an off track). However, his deep closer running style is what puts him here, and is a contender for the exotics. Also, if an off track, he is a solid play.

Firing Line (Contender): His Sunland Derby win was the fastest of all the preps (in furlongs/second). Firing Line has dueled with Dortmund and was only behind Dortmund by 2 hundreths of a second in the Robert B. Lewis. He works his way to a great position the first half of the race, and then just pulls forward. He is much better than his line shows. And, at an estimated 14/1 odds, he could make for a nice payout.

Frosted (Pretender): After not getting it done in Florida, Frosted got a complete makeover and was able to come away with the Wood Memorial. Besides the Wood Memorial curse, Frosted had a slow Wood Memorial win, and seems to perform best in a slow pace. Also, whenever he is in front, he doesn’t take a liking to the open track, not pulling forward or striding on. A horse that just doesn’t feel comfortable being out front isn’t one to pick as a winner.

International Star (Pretender): Son of Fusaichi Pegasus, one of my favorite sires, this Louisiana Derby winner has been dominating in the Bayou, sweeping the trio of Louisiana preps. But, how impressively? His wins were slow and against a kinda weak field. While he does have an impressive turn of foot and can win from the rail or the center of the track, he just hasn’t shown the class to beat this field.

Itsaknockout (Pretender): “Slow and steady wins the race.” Well whoever wrote that must not have known the Kentucky Derby. Itsaknockout is one slow horse, having run a very slow time in the Fountain of Youth, and even slower in the Florida Derby (in fact, he has the slowest furlong/second speed out of all the 2015 runs of the contenders). Yikes. A week ago, I liked him. I even put him at 5 in my top ten. And I think he is a very fighting horse. But I don’t like him in this field.

Madefromlucky (Pretender): Another Pletcher runner, Madefromlucky is a stalker, and a poor one at that. As he stalks the pace, he slowly falls back, losing ground as he goes. His speed down the stretch isn’t all that strong, and he has yet to win outside of allowance company.

Materiality (Pretender): The fourth Pletcher runner, Materiality, had an impressive win in the Islamorada, but his step up to the Florida Derby ended up in running a very slow race, one of the slowest major preps. He has been pretty lucky late and hasn’t shown too much class. Also, only three lifetime starts (albeit all wins) isn’t the best thing to have going into the Derby.

Mr. Z (Pretender): Zayat Stables has two really nice horses going into the Derby, but this one isn’t one of them. Mr. Z is slow, runs poorly down the stretch, and seems to always be pretty far back. Not to mention that he hasn’t won since his first race. Not doing anything to help his cause.

Mubtaahij (Contender): Mike de Kock is locked and loaded with his first Derby starter, UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij. This son of Dubawi runs slightly off the front runners and just patiently waits. He has been so impressive in his starts on dirt, and has been improving. He was able to run away with the UAE Derby after being caught behind two horses in only 100m. Impressive. His other races at Meydan were eye opening as well. He wants to go this distance, and may very well relish going longer. Dubawi sired a two Dubai World Cup winners, as well as many other horses who have won not only at 2000m or more, but also a few that have wins in the US. Watch out for Mubtaahij. And just to repeat a bold prediction I said on Twitter: if Mubtaahij wins the Kentucky Derby (not saying he will or that he is my top choice), he will win the Triple Crown.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Pretender): The Delta Downs Jackpot winner, Ocho Ocho Ocho, has been searching for form this year. A small horse that works better from the back, is a tad below the class of this field. He would need to put on a show to win.

Stanford (Pretender): Runner up to both Materiality and International Star, Stanford hasn’t been able to reach the line first since moving out of allowance company. He doesn’t have too much of a kick and is a slow front runner. He may be better running on turf. No play here.

Tencendur (Pretender): Runner-up in the Wood Memorial, he was able to come out of the turn strong, but not strong enough to win. While a great horse and one that could play a big role in the pace of the Derby, the distance seems to be too far for him.

Upstart (Contender): The Holy Bull winner, Upstart, has been pretty impressive throughout his career. He ran fast in the Holy Bull and has shown skill in each of his subsequent starts. The slower pace hurt his other Florida performances. It seems as if he wants a medium pace, not fast but not slow. His class pushes him as a contender, but not super confident on him just yet.

War Story (Pretender): War Story is another horse to come out of Louisiana. Slow and patient, he just makes small moves throughout before coming to the far turn. He has a strong stretch run, but his will to win just isn’t there. He also hasn’t won outside of allowance company.

Mj I cant see past the mighty Pharoah, he's the best looking 3yo I've seen in years. I think the only horse that can get close is Carpe Diem who should be staying on for second but a distant second. I love the fact that the 2 best two year olds have both improved as 3yo's.

I think the best long shot is Firing Line.

I have been developing my own speed figures for the past few months and I am finally able to reveal them to the public. Still a work in progress, but I posted speed figures for Kentucky Derby probables on my blog. If you would like them, follow this link: https://horseracingstation.wordpress.com/hrs-speed-figures/. I will release speed figures for all the Derby Day stakes races next week.

Here I start my analysis of the Derby horses. The first four I touch on are the top four listed on the Daily Racing Form's Watchmaker Watch. Free past performances for these five are available there.

Dortmund



For such a good horse he only sold for 140k as a 2yo to a money bags owner with a top trainer. Can't help but think that something off lies under the surface but oh well he is a fine horse. What jumps off the page here to me is those first three starts as a 2yo. He was able to relax and rally off the pace in each of those starts. One of those starts was an authoritative win at Churchill Downs. He comes back at 3 and proceeds to lead almost all the way in every start. What I'm left to wonder is if they will revert back to coming off the pace for Derby because that seems to me to be their best option. In his last start he lost a shoe at the start and still won easily.

Beyer Speed Figure - The Derby Winner usually runs between a 107-110 Beyer Figure. Dortmund ended his 2yo season with what I have given a Beyer level of 95. Add 10 points for the natural progression of a 3yo colt from Jan 1 to the first Saturday in May and you get a 105. That is the exact level he is at BUT he is doing it while showing all that speed. If he goes back to having a nice rally I'll add 5 points and give him a 110. He is either a very headstrong 3yo or an absolute beast who will destroy the Derby field with a nice rally.

His dosage profile say he should easily handle the distance. His sire won the Derby. Baffert is the best Derby trainer going now.

Conclusion - If he rallies he will be very hard to beat. If he shows all speed and gets in a speed duel I can't see him hanging on. Given an easy pace he can surely hang on.

American Pharoah



This one sold for 300k as a yearling so he has always been thought of as one of the best of his crop. Well he possesses my most favorite and most powerful handicapping angle - Speed first start of season. Rally second start. A horse with that angle is very hard to beat. I have one big problem with Pharoah - his breeding. His dosage numbers are heavily slanted towards sprinting. If he gets the distance of the Derby it will be just barely. He looks like such a fine horse that it wouldn't be surprising to see him do it. Hasn't beat much this year but that is in his favor because he hasn't had to over exert himself to this point making him very fresh.

Beyer Speed Figure - Ended his 2yo season with a guesstimate of 103 making him one of the best 2yo's in the last 10 years let alone last year. With natural progression he would would run a 113 on Derby day. His last two starts are great and all but he appears to be at a 107 level for those and a 109 for the Derby. Perhaps that injury as a 2yo has hindered him somewhat.

Conclusion - Unbeatable betting angle versus his breeding limitations and his injury from last year have me guessing. I'm leaning towards him running a great race but fading in the stretch.

Firing Line



Similar to Dortmund in that he had a nice rally as a 2yo but those were in sprints. In routes he shows a lot of speed with a rally attempt against Dortmund two starts ago falling just short. Also has the all powerful angle with a rally first out and speed second out. Somewhat cheap breeding with a very high auction price so he has been something special since his birth. His dosage numbers say the Derby distance is just within his reach. Beat nothing last out but beat them good.

Beyer Speed Figure - Ended last year at 93. Expected to run a 103 on Derby day. He has improved somewhat and I give him a 106 for the Derby.

Conclusion - I like the looks of him IF they rate him off the pace. A nice light schedule with good results have him looking ready to fire for the Derby. Strong chance.

Carpe Diem



To me he should be running faster for a $1.6 million auction horse trained by Pletcher. He came into the Breeders Cup Juvenile perfectly and got a perfect set up and still lost to a rank outsider. Either he has problems or isn't worth the purchase price although he has almost earned his price back. I watched that Blue Grass and was not impressed.

Beyer Speed Figure - Ended last year at 93. Giving him a 103 for Derby day. His figures this year say he may barely reach that level.

Conclusion -Appears to me to be an overpriced but good horse. Has breeding to run all day but I will look elsewhere.

I'm predicting that the Pharoah will get close to or even under the magic 2Min for the derby, he's just that good.

I hope he does but I don't care if his leg falls off as long as he wins I got 11/2 for him, also got a double with Pharaoh & the Pacman in a silly £3 doulbe