Cheltenham Gold Cup






Another wide open cheltenham gold cup leaves us all scratching our heads trying to find the winner. At this early stage we have two past winners coming back, one trying to be the first horse since Best Mate to win back to back gold cup which is incredibly hard with the likes of Kauto Star,Denman and Long run failing. We have the small but game Bobs Worth attempting to put a couple of dissapointing runs behind him to try and regain his crown. We have the flat track specialist Silviniaco Conti trying to win his 1st gold cup at his 3rd attempt despite him claiming 4 grade 1's since falling in the 2013 gold cup. We also have a crop of progressive 2nd season novices who have won a Hennessy Gold Cup, Thyestes Handicap Chase and a Betfred Listed chase between them. Then the Irish have there traditional strong squad with the Willie Mullins pair of the unlucky 2nd last year On his own and Boston Bob. Noel Meade has the very progressive Road to Riches who has mopped up several races in Ireland this season.

Runners

Silviniaco Conti

Silviniaco Conti this years 7/2 cheltenham gold cup goes into the race attempting to win the race at the third attempt for Paul Nicholls. Paul Nicholls nine year old is heading straight to festival without the aid of a prep run but has showed really good form winning 2 out of his 3 runs this season which include a Betfair Chase and a second King George Chase. Although cheltenham poses a completely different test compared to the flat tracks he has raced on all year like Kempton, Wetherby and Newbury. Finishing 4th in last years gold cup he was beat 4 1/2 lengths but he obviously didnt run up to his rating off 177. Although Paul Nicholls quotes there are several factors that has been ironed out and expects him to be in the thick of things coming to the mighty hill.
Im sure many people's selection will be the mighty Silviniaco Conti but he's not mine with several factors that i just cant get out my head. Starting with his failure to win at cheltenham. The second factor being i still think he runs a little lazy and he'll not get away with that on a more stiffer track and finally the likely hood of good ground. I just think he's much more effective on softer ground with his best RRP's coming on that surface. With all them factors i just dont want to back him at 7/2 are such an open race.

Lord Windermere

A shock 20/1 winner Lord Windermere won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but some would say he was controversial winner. He, On His Own and The Giant Bolster got very close and Lord Windermere drifted and caused interference. With it being so close to the line if quite surprised me he kept the race but he won and has to be taken seriously due to his ability to find top form at the cheltenham festival. However watching last years gold cup again ive decided the leaders may have got racing to early and payed late on. Obviously both Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti drifting didnt help but i just think the three others picked up the pieces. Him winning or even finding form is quite hard during the season as everytime you hear the trainer talk about the horse he is just never fit enough to win a race which is quite dissapointing as he is a Gold cup winner and he should be given the chance to prove is a top class horse. Following his Lexus defeat Davie Russell said he was happy with his run as the ground was to soft. Yes he has a 100% record at cheltenham but i just cant take the risk he'll refind form. Statistics aren't in his favour either as there are better horses attempted and failed to keep there crown. So i dont think he is good enough to keep a hold of him crown.

Road To Riches

Not running in a prep race seems to be the norm these days and Noel Meade seems happy to be another trainer to be confident in getting him spot on for the big day with just work at home. Last seen winning the Lexus in good style beating alot of the horses that will most probably re appear in the gold cup. Although that lexus win i think he was alot fitter that some of his rivals who are being trained for the one day being the gold cup. There's no doubting he's improving with every run but at 8/1 there are to many factors that I dont like when picking a my gold cup winner. Firstly with cheltenham being such a unique track i think previous experience is essential going into such a high profile race like the gold cup. Secondly the trip hes only raced at 3m three times in his career so the stiff 3m 2f is going to be a test for him and finally the ability to travel he's only been out of Ireland once and he ran very dissapointing at aintree beat a long way. So for me its just watch and he maybe a type for the 2016 gold cup.

Many Clouds

If Many clouds can win the cheltenham gold cup he would follow in thefootsteps off the mighty Denman and small but game Bobs Worth in completing the Hennessy gold cup and Cheltenham gold cup in the same season. Oliver Sherwood has never failed to show his admiration for this horse and he is finally starting to repay his faith with a strong start to the season. Starting the season running over an inadequate trip he showed good heart to beat a good field. Although that was only a prep for the Hennessy Gold cup he proved he was fitter than his rivals. The best was still to come though, winning an above average Hennessy really well and proving he was a live contender for the cheltenham gold cup. He then showed he is just as effective at cheltenham in winning the Argento Chase again beating a good field. Although Statistics aren't in his favour as the last 10 winners have all been grade 1 winner which doesnt boad well for Many Clouds but the main reason that's turning me against him is the likelyhood of good ground. Alot of his best form is on soft ground and i dont see him having the speed to keep in the race. I do see him as a grand national horse though.

Tip 1.

Bobs Worth

The 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and a horse that I have backed everytime its ran since its early hurdling days. I believe i have four reasons to why i think he can win a second cheltenham gold cup.
1. His cheltenham record. He's been there and done the business so many times which is a plus in any big race but especially at a unique track like cheltenham. His current record is 111115 and last year was the first time he's failed to bound up the hill. He just loves that hill is very good at proving to strong coming up the hill.
2. His ability to go well fresh. Being so small and putting everything into his races he just can't have a long campaign. Nicky Henderson has done an amazing job in getting him ready for the big day after a break. There's no better example than in 2013 when he came straight from winning the hennessy gold cup to the Cheltenham gold cup. Not many horses manage to do that so you have to take him serious. Due to this factor i believe Nicky Henderson will have him spot on come the day of the gold cup.
3. Good ground. Yes he has form on a softer surface but to see him at his best i think he needs a better surface. In fact when you watch this years Lexus he struggled most the race with the ground but when he got onto he better ground down the back straight he actually started to close but when back onto the softer surface he struggled and trailed home. During that race thats probably the best ive seen him jump in a long time.
4. He wasn't at his best last year. He's obviously a tricky horse to train due to his preference on stiff tracks which limites him to certain races and to be honest i dont think he was at his best any of last year. My point justifying its self when he was approaching the hill last year and he suddently jinked towards the best mate enclosure. Any other year he would bound up the hill and win but i just dont think he was at 100% at all last year.

Yes he is a favourite of mine but im just willing to give him one more chance to find his best and i do believe he still has the ability and the heart to win at his beloved cheltenham.

Advised 16/1 Win..

Tip 2.

Djakadam

My first tip was a solid gold cup horse who has been there the last couple of years and you know what your going to get come the race day but my second tip is a horse with unknown potential in some many ways.
Willie Mullins has always showed his admiration for this horse and always stated he'd be a much better chaser than he was hurdler and he has already achieved that in his short chasing career. After completing a quick double in his novice chasing career in Ireland. He won a beginners chase and a weak grade 2. He then came into the JLT at cheltenham seemingly as the Willie Mullins second string with Ruby Walsh choosing Felix Younger. Although he was travelling kindly coming to the 4 last before he over jumped and fell but he quickly put in many notebooks for the following season. Coming into this season Willie Muliins though he had a well handicapped horse and seemingly decided to try his luck in the Hennessy Gold Cup but the hussle and bussle of his first big handicap told and he finished a well beaten 8th but to win a big handicap you probably need experience and a recent run. With stamina doubts still in question he contested the Thyestes handicap chase and turned it into a roat winning very easily by 8length with top weight. Following his win the immediate plan was to come to the cheltenham gold cup and i honestly believe he has the class to win Willie Mullins a gold cup. Only being a 6yo he still has undoubted potential and i believe he has an excellent chance of winning the gold cup.

Advised 16/1 Win..

Hope you like it.

Would like to hear your thoughts on the gold cup.

Nice read buddy, glad to see you've tipped Djakadam. I'm sitting on 50/1 that I took in November.

Nice, I'd like to say i got 50s but im on 25s. ill not be dissapointed if i have to put up with 25s if he wins gold cup

You reckon Coneygree has a chance after today's romp?
Was very impressive!

Yeah i should have probably waited to see this weekend's action before posting. I really fancied coneygree today but today. My evaluation of today he beat horses that would finish midfield i a gold cup. He wa really impressive but no novice has won the gold cup in a long time and personally why not go and win the RSA and target him at he betfair and king george next year.

I think they should 100% go for it with Coneygee, u never know what's around the corner and if he' in top form go for it. It's a very average gold cup. With three of my fav chasers in it with Coney, On his own and Many I'd doubt if I would have a bet in it.

No need to rush it, theres not a hope in hells chance that henderson,mullins or nicholls would do it. He needs to look after the horse.

He's 8 years of age and he's had his problem's in the past, it's now or never. If it was to be a dry spring then I'd question if he was to go to Cheltenham at all. Wants softer ground like his brother.

How is it "Now or never"?

U horse is 8 yo so he's probably reached his peak and has missed nearly 2 years with injury and why should anyone be scared of the fav's, Conti's not proven around Cheltenham and was very average last year and Road's has never won over 3miles+. I say If the ground is on the soft side go for it.

The way he has improved all season would suggest he has not peaked. The fact that he is so lightly race could suggest he has plenty of miles left on the clock. Unless connections have been told by a top vet that he is likely to have more problems or that he is nearly done with then he will be better again next year. Conti is a much better horse than last season. Road To Riches has matured so much and his form over 3m is good, he even looked like he outstayed horses which want further than 3m. Many Clouds has the profile of a Gold Cup horse, as does Road To Riches. This years Gold Cup is much stronger than last years. It wont be soft.

I think Conti is a ( poor man's Wayward Lad), not getting up that hill in a fast run race. I think the 3M+ Chase division is the poorest I've seen it in a long time/If not ever. I was trying to remember back to when the last Novice ran in it and I think it was Gloria Victis( ill-fated) and see who was in that Gold Cup and it was a who's who of runners- Looks Like Trouble- Florida Pearl- See More Business- Dorans Pride and Go Ballistic all horses that would win this years Gold Cup.

I think in general there is a lack Of Quality in all Chase division's. I'll go out on a limb and say we will get our first Soft ground Cheltenham this year, I think we will stay in our Pattern ( high Pressure near us) for the next 2 weeks then the Atlantic will take over as we go into March and we will get lovely soft ground.

Last years Gold Cup was poor, this years has much more potential.

How can you be taken seriously quoting horses such as Looks Like Trouble, Dorans Pride, Florida Pearl and Go Ballistic? None of those were ever top class Gold Cup horses then and wouldn't be now. You say Conti doesn't stay but quote Florida Pearl? See More Business was a good horse, but not in the league of Best Mate or Kauto Star. Conti, Many Clouds and Road To Riches all have the potential to be much better horses than those you've listed. Gloria Vicitis ran in the Gold Cup because it was such an open and poor year!

In general all the chase division lack quality? I think the Champion Chase could be a very good race. Dodging Bullets is a good horse and if Sprinter Sacre improves in the way he should, though Henderson having a very bad season, then he will take all the beating. The JLT is never a top class race but has some good entries.

I see a new era for the Gold Cup starting this year.

I just find it amazing that they would even think about running him in the gold cup, in no previous years has a novice even though about it. He's only a lightly raced 8yo so has plenty of miles left on the clock.

I'm Sorry Keith but u are dreaming or are living in another universe if u think this lot is even in the same country as that lot. Keith when u come up with statements like that then I've got to question if u know anything about this great sport.