Oaks Preview



Runners

Al Nammah

Bought for 5,000,000gns by Al shaqab as a yearling Al Nammah was always going to come into racing with a hefty reputation. Sent to the mighty Andre Fabre, Al Nammah ran only twice as a 2yo winning a conditions event on debut but dissapointed in a group 3 next. Al Nammah hasn't had the typical oaks preparation just running the once as a 3yo finishing 2nd in the Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud which was seeming a below average start. I expect the step up in trip to be in her favour so i expect an improved performance, although i think her lack of experience with count against her and expect her to finish midfield.

Bellajeu

Trained by Ralph Beckett, Bellajeu a 300,000gns purchase has yet to notch up a win after 4 runs. Being by Montjeu she was never going to be making a high class 2yo so seeing her run 3 times over an inadequate trip was a surprise. Returning as a 3yo Bellajeu started in the Lingfield Trial finishing a close 2nd although the form has been let down by the winning dissapointing badly next time. On the face of it i think Bellajeu wont be good enough and will struggle home.

Crystal Zvezda

A typical Sir Michael Stoute 3yo, lightly raced and bags of improvement left in her. We've only seen this 3yo 3 times in her career but she has always been very highly rated. Starting in a conditions race on debut is always going to be tough against a smart performer with experience. She managed to win a maiden at Lingfield in late october convincingly. With just a rating of 78 many thought she'd start in handicaps but she showed her class and destroyed her rivals in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot and has a massive chance of winning the epsom Oaks.

Diamondsandrubies

Trained by Aiden O'Brien, Diamondsandrubies will have been right down his possible Oaks contenders but after a progressive early 3yo campaign and other horses dissapointing she has shot up the ranks and now goes into the race as a lively protender. Starting the season winning a ordinary maiden she progressed to winning the Cheshire Oaks preaty easy afte finishing 2nd in another Fillies Listed. Although she has progressed rapidly i think her form is only average and won be good enough to win an Epsom Oaks.

Jack Naylor

Jack Naylor, already a group winner as a 2yo and placed in a group 1 in france she cant be discounted lighty after a really encouraging run in the irish 1000 guineas. Getting a little outpaced early she stayed on really well to end up finishing 3rd and looked in need of a longer trip. Although im not sure its as far as 1m 4f. Im only not a fan of going straight from the 1000 guineas onto the oaks with only the 12 days in between. So i expect her not to be good enough and come home in her own time.

Jazzi Top

The choice of Frankie Dettori and trained by John Gosden, Jazzi Top related to the high class Izzi Top is unbeaten in two runs as a 3yo after being unable to win in two runs as a 2yo. Starting with an easy win in a maiden she progressed nicely to win the Pretty Polly at Newmarket which is always a good trial. Although i do have doubts about her stamina and experience, Izzi Top got better with age and was normally a 10f horse. I expect her to finish in the midfield with just her stamina failing late on.

Lady of Dubai

Trained by Luca Cumani, Lady of Dubai is open to bags of improvement after a really impressive start to her 3yo season in the Fillies Listed race at Goodwood over 1m 1f. She showed that she was a group race filly travelling really well and never really extended. She had an okay start in her 2yo season failing to win over to short a trip in her opening 2 races but when upped to a mile she won nicely. She finished her year finishing 2nd in a fillies listed behind the smart Irish Rookie. Luca Cumani doesnt overpitch his horses so he obviously thinks she's good enough and there's every chance she'll stay the trip so I dont expect her to win but think she'll run a nice race.

Legatissimo

Trained by David Wachman, but owned by the powerful group of Mr M Tabor, D Smith & Mrs John Magner. Legatissimo hasnt had the normal route you'd expect to be running in the Oaks. Already running 3 times this year, she started running over 7f in a 1000 guineas trial finishing 4th looking in need of a longer trip. She reappeared over 1m 1f in a Listed looking mighty impressive and looking as if she'd stay further no problem so it looked all roads towards the Oaks. Before that target she outstayed Lucida to win the 1000 Guineas and under a great ride by Moore won nicely. Although i think that race didnt have the strength in depth that the Oaks has and i dont think she'll be good enough to win. I expect her to finish 3rd.

Qualify

The Aiden O'Brien third string, owned not by the usual owners but by Mrs. Regalado-Gonzalez. A two time winner as a 2yo, Qualify ran respectable in many group races and finally notched up a group 3 towards the end of the season. Although starting her 3yo season, she's ran in both the English and Irish guineas and dissapointed badly in both finishing 13/13 and 10/18. The step up in trip is a totally unknown but it will have to contain mountains of improvement and i dont think she's good enough to win an Oaks.

Star of Seville Tip 1

Star of Seville the seemingly second string of John Gosden after Frankie Dettori chose Jazzi Top although ridden now by William Buick.Which isnt a negative. Starting her 2yo career over 7f she ran an encouraging race just fading late but she improved massively on her final 2yo start winning a maiden thats working out really well by 6l eased down. Following that effort she went straight to the top of the Oaks market. Star Of Seville has started her 3yo season perfectly winning a highly contested conditions event and winning The Musidora beating grade 1 winner Together forever in the process. Although her stamina isnt assured I Think her strong galloping style will suit as she may get an easy lead and she is my first selection to win.

Together Forever Tip 2

The Aiden O'Brien first string, Together Forever already a group 1 winner as a 2yo progressed massively through her 2yo season when riding tactics changed. Winning on her fourth attempt as a 2yo not many people would have thought she'd be an Oaks filly but following her Fillies Mile win she was immediately penciled in for an Oaks campagne. Following a little setback she started her 3yo season finishing 2nd in the Musidora attempting to give 3pound to Star Of Seville, she just failed to get past her but that was a highly encouraging run and i expect her to be right in mix at the business end of the Oaks. I also expect the step up in trip to be positive.

1st - Star Of Seville
2nd - Together Forever
3rd - Legatissimo

Ryan Moore's response immediately after the 1,000 Guineas was that Legatissimo would not stay 1m4f - I think I'm the only one who remembers him saying that. There is stamina in her pedigree for sure, and plenty of it, but Ryan was very quick to dismiss her chances of staying the Oaks trip which leads me to think Coolmore are only running her because Found failed to be ready in time and they don't have much faith in the O'Brien trio.

As a Juddmonte fan, I would love to see Jack Naylor win - she has Juddmonte blood coursing through her veins - but I was really taken with Crystal Zvezda at Newbury and Jazzi Top won the same trial as Taghrooda twelve months ago.

Having being a follower of the this horse for this season and also having a bet on her, I have to stick with Bellajeu, despite the big price.
I'm encouraged that the horse is Beckett's only representative, I often take note of what he runs as he knows how to win the race with a unfancied horse.
She would have won at Lingfield if she hadn't made her move around the outside but it was still a good run for a maiden. I know that it's nearly impossible for a horse who hadn't previously won a race to win the Oaks, but my heart has an interest in her chances.
An alternative to my bet would be Crystal Zverzda. Comes from a good family, a half sister to a horse I liked a few years ago in Crystal Capella and was very impressive winning at Newbury last time. The form doesn't stack up to much, but there was a lot to like that day.

Selections:
Crystal Zverzda - Win
Bellajeu - Each Way.

great read

Qualify's 2nd dam, Medicosma, was bred by Juddmonte Farms and she's a half-sister to the dam of Kentucky Oaks heroine Flute and to the dam of Brian Boru, Sea Moon and Soviet Moon, who is the dam of Workforce - best breeding operation in the world.

& Coolmore dont even own 1% of her they sold her before the start of season ouch

Havent got the time for a derby preview by my first 3 are.

1st - Golden Horn
2nd - Elm Park
3rd - Jack Hobbs