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 Kentucky Derby 2016 
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Post Kentucky Derby 2016
As we look to Belmont Park and American Pharoah going for the Triple Crown, 2yos are racing in stakes races, hoping for a chance a year from now to be where AP is now. Today, at Belmont Park, was the Tremont Stakes. I've been looking forward to this race for the past week (maybe even more than I've been looking forward to the Belmont Stakes). One horse that I loved going in, which I posted on my Twitter multiple times that this horse is my Derby favorite for next year, was Cocked and Loaded, a son of Colonel John, who hails from the same sire line as Tiznow, a sire line that hasn't won the Derby since War Admiral (the Godolphin Arabian sire line). Low and Behold, he won. I expect him to improve at longer, as most Godolphin Arabian descendants do. He has the jump and I hope to see him 11 months from now Running for the Roses!

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Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:07 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I'll be sure to keep that name on my radar. I'm gonna equibase him now.

Neither of his wins look extremely spectacular, but I'm thinking from the looks of it, he makes his move fairly late, that he'd like some more distance. He looks like he has some guts too, both times he had to fight for it, both times he came home in front.


Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:12 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Now the 2yo are started to come out theses are two that might be interesting for later on.

Ballet Diva is a Florida based filly and is now 2 from 2, won her maiden by 12L and tonight won her Stakes Race by 4.5L. Will be interesting to see where she goes from here, might just be a speedy 2yo but has not been tested yet.

The second is a horse called John Q Public, won his maiden at Ellis Park easily and had a troubled trip. His trainer is the legendry DW Lucas who likes to send his horses to Saratoga so it will be interesting to see if he thinks he's good enough to go there.


Sun Jul 05, 2015 11:13 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Finally got the chance to look at the two horses you've found, ghostzapper, and have to say that John Q Public interests me. He ran a 5f race in 57.95, which is pretty quick for 5furlongs, especially at Ellis Park which usually is pretty slow (deep track). My only concern is the pedigree, which isn't anything special. I'd like to see what he does at Saratoga (if he goes). If he stays in Kentucky, he could be heading to one of the 2yo races at Kentucky Downs and he could become a pretty nice turf horse. But I added him to my virtual stable.
As for Ballet Diva, I'm not on her yet. She has yet to be tested, running very easy fractions and just basically working out. Would like to see what she could do when there is pressure up front, but when you are winning for fun, hard to not say she is something special. The one thing that stands out is what the track comments are in both of her 2 starts "never asked." She sure is impressive, but as I said, yet to be tested. Stanley Gold is a very good trainer and I could see him send her to Kentucky for some of the fall stakes there.

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Fri Jul 10, 2015 2:39 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
mjtags11 wrote:
Finally got the chance to look at the two horses you've found, ghostzapper, and have to say that John Q Public interests me. He ran a 5f race in 57.95, which is pretty quick for 5furlongs, especially at Ellis Park which usually is pretty slow (deep track). My only concern is the pedigree, which isn't anything special. I'd like to see what he does at Saratoga (if he goes). If he stays in Kentucky, he could be heading to one of the 2yo races at Kentucky Downs and he could become a pretty nice turf horse. But I added him to my virtual stable.
As for Ballet Diva, I'm not on her yet. She has yet to be tested, running very easy fractions and just basically working out. Would like to see what she could do when there is pressure up front, but when you are winning for fun, hard to not say she is something special. The one thing that stands out is what the track comments are in both of her 2 starts "never asked." She sure is impressive, but as I said, yet to be tested. Stanley Gold is a very good trainer and I could see him send her to Kentucky for some of the fall stakes there.


I love watching the two year old races, I use timeform US to see where the days 2yo races are. I try to see as many as I can. The Great thing about US racing is u can see most courses live on the internet, unlike our racing or Aussie racing.

Stanley had that good 2yo filly Awesome Feather, time will tell if she's just a sprinter or can go longer.

Lady Eli was outstanding last weekend, the best 3yo grass filly in the world.


Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:05 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Lady Eli surprised me. I wasn't sure if she would like going any longer. I always saw her as a miler at best (with an extension to 1 1/16 mi but nothing futher). But that turn of foot is deadly! She is definitely a superstar and love that her silks are so similar to that of Zenyatta (they aren't the same tho, different owner). If American Pharoah didn't win the Triple Crown, I would say that she would be horse of the year. But with Horse of the Year taken, best turf horse should be hers. I did like Big Blue Kitten in the United Nations and would like him head over to Arlington Park in August. I see him heading towards Kentucky Downs in September since the Ramseys love to race there, and the BC Turf in his future. I don't think he is better than Lady Eli, but if he is able to sweep the 3 or 4 races left, could make the turf division race very close.
I always liked 2yo racing in the thoroughbreds (mainly from my love of pedigrees and QH racing which is basically all 2yo racing at the top level with the exception of like 10-15 stakes races at tracks as opposed to 30-40 at the 2yo level). It is sad that Harness racing doesn't have the joy of 2yo. Outside of the Breeders Crown and the Metro Pace, the 2yo division is boring. I am going to the Meadowlands tonight and so many of the races are 2yo races, with stand outs at very short prices and everyone else kinda short too but with little talent. And they are almost all trotters so with Taylor Swift playing in the background, many of those trotters should break. Harness racing is tough to build up since its basically just 3yo racing. Outside of the Triple Crowns and the prestigious races, harness racing has nothing to bring people to the track like the thoroughbreds. I like to watch Belterra Park (which sadly I ran out of my 10 free hours on TVG so I need to find a new streaming site, any ideas?, preferably free), and for a small track in Ohio, they get very nice crowds on Thursdays, and their exactas pay nicely for 6/7 horse fields (favorite over third choice paid $27 for a $2 exacta; second choice over fourth choice paid $88; even 8/5 favorite over 17/1 longshot paying $189, but that didn't hit, just a will pay). So great to see good crowds at the small tracks on a weekday.
But back to the 2yos... Pedigree is something I absolutely love to look at! I could spend hours just looking at pedigree charts (and believe me, I have). It is amazing that all of the top horses in both TB, QH, and harness are all descendents of the Darley Arabian, Godolphin Arabian, and Byerley Turk. Funny how since the 1930s, Darley Arabian sire line descendents dominated thoroughbreds and throughout the 1900s the Byerley Turk sire line descendants dominated quarter horse racing til the 1980s when the Darley Arabian line came to power, and how the Godolphin Arabian line (Man O' War, War Admiral, Tiznow, Colonel John, Calculator, Cocked and Loaded, Cirrus Des Aigles) just pop up every now and then. Now if only I can find a modern horse that is a sire line descendent of Byerley Turk, my day would be made... but they are pretty much extinct in the US...

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Fri Jul 10, 2015 6:54 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Sorry Mj but there's no free stream to Belterra, the owners Pinnacle refuse to share their pics on any of their racecourses. I use to love the old track River Downs, we use to have the races over here and two of my Fav two year old races was the Pepsi Bassinet Stakes + Cradle Stakes. Many good horses use to win that race including Bellamy Road and Harlan's Holiday, shame they don't run them anymore on the new course.


Are u going to see AP in the Haskell.


Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:55 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
So sad... Love the new grandstand tho. Definitely making a trip to see Belterra in the future tho.

And yep!! Got my Haskell tickets the day after the Belmont hoping he'd go. When Zayat said he was leaning towards Saratoga is was not too happy but he couldn't say no to his home state of New Jersey! Can't wait to see him! Funny how this is Monmouth Park's first time a Triple Crown winner will race there yet the Meadowlands already had one back in the 70s (think it was Affirmed in the Meadowlands Cup but not 100% sure). Going to be a very great Haskell. Hopefully it gets a field of 8-10 at least.

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Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:53 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Finally found a Belterra Park live stream! I always forgot that I have the iPhone app Horse Races Now by trainer Ken McPeek and so I opened up to see what streams it had and Belterra was there! Yay!

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Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:28 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I've got two horses to look out for when Saratoga starts in a couple of weeks.

The first one is a filly called Rachels Valentina, she is a daughter of the Mighty Rachel Alexandra and turned in a bullet work this weekend. Unlike Rachel's first colt this one mighty be a race horse.

The second is a Colt called Numbered, he has been firing bullets everywhere. He is bred and owned by Godolphin out of a top class mare in Seventh Street. His trainer Kiaran McLaughlin usually takes his time with his younger horses so it's interesting to see this horse show so much so soon.

Another horse to watch out for is a unknown filly( not sure why she's not been given a name yet) out of another top class filly called Santa Catarina, she's been doing nice workouts in the morning and she cost 600,000 in the sales.


Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:34 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
After today's win for Swipe in the Summer Juvenile Championships at Los Alamitos, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Tremont behind my top 2yo Cocked and Loaded have won (Paynes Prairie won next out at Belmont Park). The rest of the field has yet to race again so I don't know how more competitive that race was but for Cocked and Loaded to beat two next out winners just helps to raise his status. He is currently training at Arlington Park and I expect him to go for one of the 2yo stakes races at Saratoga. I like what I see in his workouts. Very nice, especially on the polytrack at Arlington. Larry Rivelli is really grooming this horse nice. I really can't wait to see what he does as the races get longer.

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Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:08 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
This weekend is Saratoga Opening Weekend! On Saturday is the Sanford Stakes for 2yos. Here is the field:
1- Awesome Slew
2- Save the Drama
3- John Q Public
4- Magna Light
5- Sunny Ridge
6- Hes Comin In Hot
7- Paynes Prairie
8- Cocked and Loaded
9- Twirling Cinnamon
10- Percolator
11- Uncle Vinny

Still sticking with Cocked and Loaded here. But nice field and I bet that at least two of these horses will be in the Triple Crown races.

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Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:02 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
It's good to see Mr Lucas didn't let me down by running John Q Public, will be interesting to see how he gets on. Put up a decent workout at Saratoga last week.

Two of the best 2yo's that have run at Monmouth this season are Awesome Slew and Percolator,we will find out how good the form is.

Watch out for a horse called Welcoming on Friday in the maiden, has been lighting up the morning's.

I love Saratoga, it's the real start of the 2yo's season. I'm sure there will be a few interesting runners on Saturday.

The one I'm keeping my eye on for the Schuylerville Stakes on Friday is Off The Tracks, won well at Gulfstream on her debut and is interesting because they are sending her up to New York from Florida. She is the most impressive winner I've seen at Gulfstream this year.


Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:32 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I looked at Off the Tracks and I'm sure those odds will go down heavily, not just because of the quality of the horse, but I'm sure a lot of people will misread her pedigree like I did. Originally I thought she was a Curlin out of Havre De Grace... but it's Harve De Grace (really Jockey Club... really... these namings are killing me... on a tangential note, a harness pacer that raced at Northfield Park last week was named Sir Barton, and another harness trotter that won over in Sweden named Citation... but back to Saratoga). Definitely will be bet down based on misread pedigree.

In the 6th race at opening day, I do see where you are coming from with Welcoming, however I look at Ready for Chianti for Dallas Stewart. She gets Joel Rosario aboard and has been training well at Saratoga. And Stewart places his horses for Charles Fipke in great spots (like that darn Tale of Verve..... who is heading for the WV Derby btw).

Also on Friday, the 7th race is my favorite, though not a 2yo race. Trophee, half to Treve, draws the outside after breaking her maiden last time out at Belmont Park. If for some odd reason it rains opening day (it rained at Del Mar so anything can happen), I'll Take Charge, a main track only entrant, looks very live here and has been impressive in her two starts, a second and a first last time out.

In the opener on Saturday, two horses caught my eye based on their workouts, Moon King and Black Doblin, the latter looking for longer distances due to the Tiznow on the dam side, but both are impressive.

The third race Saturday draws a nice crowd of 2yos for a mile and a sixteenth race on turf. Smarty Kitten, a Kitten's Joy out of the Smart Strike mare Smart Trade has been impressive in the mornings and Wesley Ward knows what to do with 2yos on the turf. Todd Pletcher has Jungle Jumble going in here, a Candy Ride, who has been training on the turf in the mornings. Also, Bombadier has been working out at 6 and 7 furlongs... I'd like to see how that workout pattern translates.

Of course the Sanford Stakes is the big race of the weekend for me and Cocked and Loaded seems to be far and away the winner, especially with what a race the Tremont has become. After setting the 4.5 furlong track record at Keeneland on the new dirt he faced a nice field in the Tremont. Besides Paynes Prairie and Swipe winning both next time out, last place finisher Dr. Shane came back to finish third in the Rockville Centre, a very nice race for 2yos (both Nonna's Boy and International Star raced there last year, losing to Bustin It, who hasn't done anything since last August). I'd love to see the matchup between him and John Q Public, although I think Paynes Prairie will run a big one as Steve Asmussen isn't a good trainer for Belmont but fantastic at Saratoga. Will be a great race to watch.

--------------------------
Also a few 2yos outside of the US or that aren't racing yet:
-Brooklyn Bobby (yearling, Frankel - Balance) going to be trained in the US for breeder Amerson Racing (probably by Bill Mott). Named for late Bobby Frankel.
-Proconsul (full brother to Frankel)
-Frontiersman (Dubawi - Ouiji Board) all words from the owner and breeder are that this one is very very impressive looking and has done everything right

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Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:54 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I looked at Off the Tracks and I'm sure those odds will go down heavily, not just because of the quality of the horse, but I'm sure a lot of people will misread her pedigree like I did. Originally I thought she was a Curlin out of Havre De Grace... but it's Harve De Grace (really Jockey Club... really... these namings are killing me... on a tangential note, a harness pacer that raced at Northfield Park last week was named Sir Barton, and another harness trotter that won over in Sweden named Citation... but back to Saratoga). Definitely will be bet down based on misread pedigree.

Snap. I downloaded the race card for that race and I saw Harve De Grace and got excited but then went on Equibase and saw it was a different horse :(

MJ if I was a betting man I would lay Smarty Kitten all day, it was a poor race he ran in and I wasn't impressed with him. The winner of that race ran awful next time out and I know it's on Turf now and he's by the best Turf Sire but I wasn't impressed and all Wesley Ward 2yo runners( I've seen) at Gulfstream have run poorly. I like the breeding of Jungle Jumble in that race and he's put in 3 fast workout's in the last couple of weeks.

Sad to read today that Carpe Diem has been retired, I thought he could have ran well in the Classic especially as the Breeders Cup is going to be run at his favourite track.


Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:36 pm
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