I saw Songbird before. When you make Trevor Denman basically speechless, you have a great 2yo.

As for I'm a Chatterbox, I want to see her string together a few good performances. I don't believe that the CC American Oaks field was all that strong and will need to see more from her to like her in this division.

It's the return of American Pharoah! The Haskell is actually a pretty decent field and one of the larger ones at that for the Haskell. I'm very certain that American Pharoah will win, but watch out for Mr. Jordan. He is undefeated on a speed favoring track (Monmouth Park and Calder) and has a win (placed second by DQ) and a second at Gulfstream Park (most years it would be a speed favoring track, but this spring was very slow). I'll be at Monmouth Sunday and am very excited not only for this race but for all of the races that day (but not for the 80,000+ people expected to be there... or the New Jersey traffic). Will be an exciting day!

1-Upstart 6-1 (Joe Bravo)
2-Competitive Edge 8-1 (Mike Smith)
3-Nonna’s Boy 30-1 (TBA)
4-American Pharoah 1-5 (Victor Espinoza)
5-Mr. Jordan 15-1 (Paco Lopez)
6-Keen Ice 12-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
7-Top Clearance 30-1 (Abel Castellano, Jr.)
8-Dontbetwithbruno 30-1 (TBA)

Sell it MJ! ...this field is terrible.

I'd like to go back to trying to beat Pharoah again but don't see it happening. If Upstart is back to top form he is the only one who could do it but he is also cross entered in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy so that is a negative.

1. American Pharoah - Bob Baffert has some magic horse shoes or something that always work well at Monmouth and especially this race plus a Triple Crown winner. A cinch here.

2. Competitive Edge - Has won by 10 lengths in his debut and 8 lengths off a long layoff. Fires again off the layoff to perhaps give Pharoah some pressure.

3. Upstart - Needs to show me he is right again.

I was expecting a lot worse.... It's nothing like last years's field which was the best in years, but it is a lot better than it could've been. Monmouth Park is a very clique-like track, it only accepts those it likes. It loves Baffert and it loves speed types. American Pharoah should love the track. Mr. Jordan already loves the track and can be competitive in this field (well for second of course). Dontbetwithbruno is a stakes horse for Repole and Pletcher. Finished third in the Parx Derby (which tbh, I didn't even know was a race), second behind Nonna's Boy in the Lamplighter. I actually was really high on Nonna's Boy in the past and seems to like Monmouth Park. He is on the up and could improve here. Upstart, honestly I find nothing impressive with him. I discount the Gulfstream Spring Meet races because they were terribly slow.... And Gulfstream is usually pretty fast. He would really need to improve to get up here... especially playing against the strong track bias. Competitive Edge is dangerous and has beaten some very good Grade 2 horses. Big step up here and going an extra furlong longer than ever before... not sure if he will stay. Would like him more if he went to the Met Mile instead of the Woody Stephens (not that the WS prep for Haskell hasn't been successful before). The lowest of the bunch is Top Clearance. Don't really see him doing anything here. Also, Keen Ice, as good as I think he is, wants to go much longer. I would hope Dale Romans enters him in the American St Leger, not that he will. Keen Ice could be a very nice horse going long on the grass.
Honestly, I expected worse. But I can make a case for about 5 of the other 7 horses for them to get up for second easily. In comparison to what could have been (and awful Haskell fields in the past), I think this is a fine field.

Low expectations. I'd think the increased purse would attract better stock. Second is worth a lot here.

I have their Beyer levels all doped out and adjusted for pace. Years and years of study at these and I believe myself to be an expert at them. Did I write that? I'll stick by it.

American Pharoah - 113
Upstart - 111
Competitive Edge - 107
Mr. Jordan - 103
Keen Ice - 99
Top Clearance - 96
Nonna's Boy - 95
Dontbetwithbruno - 88

Pharoah's actual level is 115 but the pace will hamper him somewhat. Thing is he is running 5 to 8 points below what his level at two says he should be running at now. I still have in the back of my mind that his injury at two and its issues may still be lurking.

Upstart's Gulfstream races are good. The dirt there was deep judging by those ridiculous slow times. My guess is this a prep for the Travers. That scorching bullet workout at Saratoga and his wins there at 2 make me think that.

Competitive Edge, one thing I learned early on in handicapping is always respect horses who run well off layoffs. Doing Australian races with no figures to work with has enforced this opinion. Competitive Edge has destroyed the competition both times he has run off the layoff. And here he is again - off the layoff.

Mr. Jordan's figures are regressing. They are not anywhere near what they should be even with short fields. In his last two starts it says "drifted stretch" and "bore out late". Something is amiss with him.

Keen Ice is a neat horse but Monmouth does not suit him. He should join Kent at the track bar tomorrow.

Surely Top Clearance was hustled by track management to run in here along with probably the remaining two horses.


My two cents.

Over the past few months, I've been working on my own speed figures (which are mainly used for harness, but I have a pool of races going for thoroughbreds, although less exact, but did get the trifecta for the Derby right). Here are my Pure Speed Figures for the field:

Last 5 (oldest to newest, left to right) Pure Speed Figures on National Average:
1-Upstart: 8.0 -2.8 -23.4 -22.3 -83.4
2-Competitive Edge: -3.7 [u-18.5 -19.3 9.3 -10.6[/u]
3-Nonna's Boy: -40.9 -34.7 -7.7 6.6 17.5
4-American Pharoah: -19.6 7.7 -10.6 12.5 14.6
5-Mr. Jordan: -33.4 -36.4 -35.8 -10.9 4.4
6-Keen Ice: -19.1 -8.8 -18.2 -22.0 6.3
7-Top Clearance: -18.7 -8.1 -10.4 -10.0
8-Dontbetwithbruno: -32.2 -51.6 -16.6 -9.1 11.7

Last 5 (oldest to newest, left to right) Pure Speed Figures on Track Average:
1-Upstart: 0.6 -4.6 -25.2 -25.0 -75.0
2-Competitive Edge: 1.1 -12.5 -21.6 9.5 -22.2
3-Nonna's Boy: -30.7 -39.4 -14.6 -2.0 17.0
4-American Pharoah: -12.7 7.0 -2.2 -12.9 9.8
5-Mr. Jordan: -13.1 -7.7 -38.1 -26.5 3.9
6-Keen Ice: -20.9 -5.6 -11.8 -13.6 1.5
7-Top Clearance: -18.7 -8.8 -15.0 -10.5
8-Dontbetwithbruno: -19.7 -54.3 -25.2 -9.6 11.2

Top 5 Pure Speed Figures on National Average In Last 3 Starts:
1-Nonna's Boy 17.5 (1st - Lamplighter - Mth)
2-American Pharoah 14.6 (1st - Belmont Stakes - Bel)
3-Dontbetwithbruno 11.7 (2nd - Lamplighter - Mth)
4-Competitive Edge 9.3 (1st - Pat Day Mile - CD)
5-Nonna's Boy 6.6 (3rd - Easy Goer - Bel)

Top 5 Pure Speed Figures on Track Average In Last 3 Starts:
1-Nonna's Boy 17.0 (1st - Lamplighter - Mth)
2-Dontbetwithbruno 11.2 (2nd - Lamplighter - Mth)
3-American Pharoah 9.8 (1st - Belmont Stakes - Bel)
4-Competitive Edge 9.5 (1st - Pat Day Mile - CD)
5-Mr. Jordan 3.9 (1st - Pegasus - Mth)

It's stupid having 3 big 3yo events on the same weekend, that's just poor planning.

A two year old I'm looking out for today is Earned in the 4 race at Mountaineer, she was working well before her debut and won well at Monmouth.

Some outstanding racing this weekend. Enjoy AP...MJ.

Wow. I don't think I have ever seen a more fluid stride in a horse than what American Pharaoh showed today in the Haskell. Victor was just sitting still while going down the stretch.

He's just to good for the 3yo's, hopefully he will run against the older horses now. It's a shame the best older horse Shared Belief is out.

It just goes to show how good Rachel Alexander was because she went over 0.60 quicker than AP in her Haskell, talking about Rachel Alexander but her Daughter Rachel's Valentina won on her debut at Saratoga and it will be interesting to see if she can follow in mum's footsteps.

The Breeders Cup Distaff is shaping up to be a great race in October, Beholder was outstanding yesterday and with Untapable and Stopchargingmarie just running a good race against each other and throw in some nice 3yo's it should be a cracker.

Wow. An absolutely amazing performance by a true champion. American Pharoah is unbelievable. The crowd at Monmouth Park was crazy. Just wow.

Also, about half way through the card, I got a message on Twitter from Caleb Keller at TVG asking me if I wanted to be the guest handicapper on The Quarters tonight. So I'll be calling in to TVG tonight handicapping the late Pick 4. Thanks to Monmouth Park for printing out the past performances for Los Alamitos while I was at the track.

Glad u enjoyed AP, did u get any winners on TVG.

One to watch out for later on this year is Finn's Girl, she won a Turf Maiden today over 7.5F at Delaware and is trained by Graham Motion. She ran green but finished well and cost a lot at 600,000. She's by Bernardini (shame he was retired to early could have been a star) out of a Giants Causeway mare called Oonagh Maccool who was very talented on the grass. Hopefully she can improve in the future.

I actually hit the pick for on TVG! First guest handicapper on The Quarters to do so.

I saw Finn's Girl win earlier today. Thought it was very good for a first time starter. Winning by 3+ lengths in a maiden on turf (especially as a FTS) is tough. Nice horse.

Also, watch out for the horses exiting the 7th race from Del Mar from August 2nd. Some mighty fine 2yos in that field and could be similar to probably the greatest AlwOC in the country in 2014 (with Constitution, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, as well as numerous next out winners). For a field of 8 (with 7 being first time starters) to go 5.5f in 1:04.40 (with early fractions of :21.91 and :46.30), very impressive.

I also expect big things from Keen Ice later in the season. For him to close on a Monmouth Park dirt that was so heavily speed favoring that only one horse was able to make up ground from back in the field all day (and only ended up finishing 3rd), very impressive. If he goes to the Travers, JCGC, or BC Classic, I am making sure to include him in all of my exotics. Very impressive.

Absolutely amazing! What a horse. Absolutely scintillating to watch! He is truly a special horse to watch.

For lack of a better thread I will post here - Today's Whitney looks like a great race. A lot of horses at the top of their game. I foresee a quick pace and will take a chance on the longshot V E Day. Castellano comes off which may be seen as good or bad. He lost last out on him and they may want a change with a new jock or Castellano likes Honor Code better. His fractions last out are quite impressive - at least his final quarter is. His Brooklyn splits ~ 49.1 - 24.3 - 49.2 - 23.4 ~ that 23.4 last quarter equals a 47.3! His biggest win was here at the Spa and I hope he rises up again.

V E Day
Lea
Tonalist
Moreno

I've got Admit I think that race was a throw away race, they crawled through it then sprinted at the end. I think VE DAY is just a slow boat and needs 1m2F+. I think he fluked one race last year in the travers and he still lives of it, the jockey club gold is how I rate him.
My horse Honor Code is going to need to prove he can put back to back races together, he's never done it but he has all the ability to do it, we will see.
Tonalist is the most solid horse in the race but has lost twice at Saratoga and it is a horses for courses race course and perhaps he doesn't like it.

It should be a great race but it's more of a watching race than a betting race. Hopefully one or two of these run well and will go give AP a race in the classic otherwise AP strolls through the year.

I hope the real Palace Malice turns up tomorrow so we can have some good racing till the end of the season.