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 Kentucky Derby 2016 
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
The Whitney is very strong and surprisingly so, I wasn't thinking half of these horses would go here (Coach Inge, Normandy Invasion, Wicked Strong, Noble Bird, Liam's Map, Honor Code). I was very high on Coach Inge heading into the Brooklyn and had a very good run in the Suburban, but dueling early killed him. If he can get the lone lead, he has a great chance, but with Noble Bird and Moreno, I don't think that will happen. Tonalist hasn't been sharp here and I don't love what I've seen from him in his last two races, but winning here wouldn't be a shocker. This is a testing ground for the Stephen Foster winner Noble Bird; if he can hit the board here, put him right in the mix in the older handicap division. Lea is a tough horse to beat, and VE Day is a Saratoga lover, both are a must use. Normandy Invasion is very surprising here, but I like this spot. He has been racing against slower and lower last two times out, but the step up in distance as well as early pace could help his closing kick. He definitely fits in this field, but whether or not he returns to his stakes form is the question.

My Top Picks:
1- VE Day
2- Lea
3- Moreno
4- Normandy Invasion

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Sat Aug 08, 2015 1:26 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Well V E Day had no excuse. I thought Liam's Map would be tough but that performance from him was extraordinary. Honor Code is a force. Great race to watch.

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Sat Aug 08, 2015 10:56 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
The Whitney was probably the best race outside of the triple crown, what a race.

Yessss :D Honor Code finally put back to back races together, I think he's finally grown up. Hopefully he'll go straight to the Classic now, please don't over race him.

Liam's Map ran a monster race considering the stupid pace they went up front, hopefully it doesn't bottom him out and he could improve further but he was getting 7 pounds of Code. Being that he's by Unbridled's Song he should still improve.

I didn't think Tonalist liked the track going in and I still think that after the race.

V E Day is just to slow, I think he's a plodder.

Lets hope that some of these get to the Classic so we can have a good race with AP.


Sat Aug 08, 2015 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Liam's Map is by Unbridled's Song and a Trippi mare. He is bred to go as fast as possible on the front. That's why it didn't surprise me much that he ran such a fast pace. He'll probably do the same thing every time he runs.

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Sat Aug 08, 2015 11:10 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
SiriusChill wrote:
Liam's Map is by Unbridled's Song and a Trippi mare. He is bred to go as fast as possible on the front. That's why it didn't surprise me much that he ran such a fast pace. He'll probably do the same thing every time he runs.


I was looking at Liam's Map's breeding today and I was looking at his mum Miss Macy Sue and racking my brain trying to think how I knew that name and I checked her up on Equibase and then it came to me that I saw her Maiden win at Hawthorne in 2005 :( . I remember that I followed her and she was a very nice filly. Bloody Hell that was 10 years ago, where has the time gone. :?


Sat Aug 08, 2015 11:20 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Mj there is a nice Ohio bred called Master Mick who won the big Thitledown two year old race yesterday, could be the next nice Ohio bred.


Sun Aug 09, 2015 3:30 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Might as well add "and US Racing 2015" to the thread title here. I have just doped the 3 stakes races provided by the Racing Form's Free Race Of The Day for Friday,Saturday and Sunday. Race Of The Day link - http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day

Friday ~ The Lake Placid - Seriously? A five horse field? What gives? You'd think everyone would jump at the chance to not have to face Lady Eli here. Short field means a slow pace and a slow pace means a speed type will benefit greatly. Miss Temple City three races back ran admirably against Lady Eli. That race surely gave the connections the confidence to decide and run her in the Coronation Stakes last out where she ran quite well. Bred for the distance and longer she will be tough.

Saturday ~ Del Mar Oaks - Prize Exhibit is a beast. Gets more speed to come down on compared to her last race. Gets that precious Grade 1 black type.

Sunday ~ Saratoga Special - Pretty lousy looking renewal of this race. I like the looks of the Canadian shipper Holding Gold. Don't recall ever seeing a Lonhro horse in the US before. Looks perfectly prepped for this race.

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Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:25 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
A mighty win yesterday at Woodbine by a filly called Gamble's Ghost, her first start and what a first start. I think she is the most impressive Ghostzapper horse to win first time out I've seen. If she can improve then perhaps the world's her oyster. Though the one downside is that it was on the AW :(


Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:03 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
The first big weekend for the two year olds and some interesting horses have come out of it.

A nice maiden winner at Del Mar called Mt Veeder, showed plenty of speed for a ghostzapper and should improve going further and will be interesting to see where Baffert takes him next.

Had a nice filly win a maiden at Saratoga called Tap to It, looks like a stayer.

Had a Grade 2 for the colts but I didn't think that much about them, I've yet to see a real nice colt.

Also had a Grade 2 for the filly's and the first 2 Just Wicked and Tonassah finished a long way in front of the other horses and looked very decent. I think these two with Songbird and Off The Tracks are very good.

Also Ruby Notion won a stakes race over 5 on the grass at Monmouth and looks like her trip to Ascot has improved her.


Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:10 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Was just staring at American Pharoah's pedigree...http://www.pedigreequery.com/american+pharoah

For a horse so talented and from what I saw of his last race - the most perfect stride I have ever seen - his breeding is really pretty average. Where did he get this ability? Spent some time going through his pedigree and one name kept appearing - Bold Ruler. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bold_Ruler

Bold Ruler's name shows up many times starting at 4 and 5 generations back in Pharoahs pedigree.

-------
Bold Ruler is sire of...

Secretariat
Gamely

Bold Ruler is grandsire of...

Ruffian
Spectacular Bid
Foolish Pleasure

Bold Ruler is great grandsire of...

Seattle Slew
--------

Pioneerof The Nile was no beast and the dam Littleprincessemma never won a race. The dam side of Pharoah is really ordinary. I think his ability is straight from the sire line. Going by the looks in the photos provided he looks a lot like Fappiano. American Pharoah is yet another of Bold Ruler's super horse descendants in the mold of Secretariat, Ruffian, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid. Judging by that top sire line he will make a great sire. Way back there in that sire line is Mr Prospector - his influence always amazes me.

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Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:06 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Sirius actually he's got a very good blood lines, Pioneer of The Nile dad was a horse called Empire Maker who would have been one of the better 3yo's in the last 15 years if not for injury. He was a mix of grass and dirt in his pedigree and he had a lovely stride for a dirt horse, I think he got that through his mum Toussaud. I think grass horses have better strides because of the kinder surface, dirt really takes it out of them. Empire Maker would have been interesting if they had run him on the grass.

U think Empire Maker was by a outstanding horse in Unbridled and his mum was by El Gran Senor( Royal Euro Blood) by the mighty Northern Dancer, it's the perfect dirt with the perfect grass.


Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:38 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I see a great pedigree as well. I mostly enjoy the limited cross breeding that his pedigree has. Going back to Bend Or through the Brigadier Gerard line is rare but a very strong line. And his tail mare line is strong as well. It's a pretty common pedigree if just looking at the bookends (sire line, dam line), but is filled with gems of the breeding world, hidden behind many unknown names.
And I'm very excited for him at stud. I would love another year of him racing, but if spoken words become written truth, imagine the progeny of him and Black Caviar! Exciting if that actually happens.

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Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:26 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
mjtags11 wrote:
I see a great pedigree as well. I mostly enjoy the limited cross breeding that his pedigree has. Going back to Bend Or through the Brigadier Gerard line is rare but a very strong line. And his tail mare line is strong as well. It's a pretty common pedigree if just looking at the bookends (sire line, dam line), but is filled with gems of the breeding world, hidden behind many unknown names.
And I'm very excited for him at stud. I would love another year of him racing, but if spoken words become written truth, imagine the progeny of him and Black Caviar! Exciting if that actually happens.


It's going to be a sad day when they retire him( coolmore shame on u) because I think u never know how good a horse is until they run 4+ because dirt horses get better with age, they improve massively from 3 to 4.

One of our best horses Dancing Brave bred a few good ones but was a flop and the best sprinter in my life time Dayjur was a total flop at stud and they both retired at 3. Who knows how Frankel will get on.

My Champ Ghostzapper started stud with a price tag of 200,000 ( the most by a new stallion ever) and has yet to get close to his ability.

I've looked up Littleprincessemma and I see she's got a filly by Nile so she's a full sister to AP and does anyone know what's her name, and I see next year there will be a full brother to AP. I wonder who owns them.


Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:44 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I hope Frankel does well at stud. Very surprised at how much all of the Treve half siblings and full siblings are going for. She seems to be a diamond in the rough. I hope Treve wins a third Arc, but I wonder if a win there would put her on top of the international rankings... I am surprised that Golden Horn is as high as he is. Very great horse but a 130? And above both Treve and Solow? Sorry Longines, stick to watches cause you messed this up. I would have Pharoah first, Solow second, Treve third, and Golden Horn fourth. But if he does beat Treve in the Arc, then good for him. Also, a Treve three-peat would put her 4th all time in career earnings behind T M Opera O, Deep Impact, and Makybe Diva. And who knows, if she comes out of the race in good form, she may very well be racing next year too, but I doubt it.

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Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:06 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
mjtags11 wrote:
I hope Frankel does well at stud. Very surprised at how much all of the Treve half siblings and full siblings are going for. She seems to be a diamond in the rough. I hope Treve wins a third Arc, but I wonder if a win there would put her on top of the international rankings... I am surprised that Golden Horn is as high as he is. Very great horse but a 130? And above both Treve and Solow? Sorry Longines, stick to watches cause you messed this up. I would have Pharoah first, Solow second, Treve third, and Golden Horn fourth. But if he does beat Treve in the Arc, then good for him. Also, a Treve three-peat would put her 4th all time in career earnings behind T M Opera O, Deep Impact, and Makybe Diva. And who knows, if she comes out of the race in good form, she may very well be racing next year too, but I doubt it.



I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of rankings coming out of uk/inter, because they are a joke. The US Beyer figures are miles in front of what we have over here because they take into account of what a horse does on the course, ours are based on opinion not fact. Solow beat The Great Gatsby by further than what Golden Horn did yet is behind on figures, Why because he is French. Timeform over here gives horses like Golden Horn big ratings so they get more headlines, more advertising space. They are a shambles.


Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:28 pm
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