High Y'all! So I thought it would be fun to do a little Handicapping Competition for the Belmont Stakes.
Each of you gets a mythical $100 bankroll to spend any way you'd like on the Belmont Stakes and the undercard (but one bet must be on the Belmont Stakes). Whoever wins the most mythical cash wins the competition.
Possible Bets: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3
NO Pick 4, Pick 5, or Pick 6.
Good Luck!

Leaderboard:
1-Sirius Chill: $427.50
2-PJRhodes: $43.75
3-Mjtags: $0.00
3-Ghostzapper: $0.00
3-Nashwan: $0.00

My Bets:

Race 7
-$5 WP on 9-Promise Me Silver ($10)
Race 9
-$2 Pick Three of 4 with 2,4,9 with 1,5,8 ($18)
Race 9
-$20 WP on 4-Tonalist ($40)
-$5 Exacta of 4 with 6,7 ($10)
Race 11
-$10 WP on 1-Mubtaahij ($20)
-$2 Exacta of 5 with 1 ($2)


Didn't stay the trip for Promise Me Silver...
Tonalist should have won the Met Mile. Honor Code interfered with Tonalist and impeded him down the stretch. Unbelievable that there was no call.

I doped the race a few days ago and am left guessing again. So many what ifs. Let' s start...

American Pharoah - Once again has the worst dosage number for getting the distance, especially going a mile and a half. The longest race in his career was the Derby and he won that by the smallest margin of all his races leaving out his debut flop. Baffert gave him a workout 10 days after the Preakness and another 6 days later - that's a big sign that he is still on his toes. His Beyer Speed Figures still suggest to me that he is not at the level I projected for him. He should be at around 113 and he is running around a 108.


Materiality - He has a big chance if he runs that Florida Derby race again. Given an easy lead or on a slow pace he has the breeding to hold them off and kick away in the stretch. So late to start racing for a triple crown horse still tells me there may be something amiss with him that could prove to be his downfall.

Mubtaahij - Looking at his past performances one thing jumped off the page - his workout regimen after the Derby. After what looks to me as merely a prep for the Belmont in the Derby, Trainer de Kock brought him back to the track 15 days later(bad sign) then proceeded to have him workout 5 times again with very short breaks in between of 3,4,3,3,5 days. Don't think I have ever seen an American trainer work a horse out like that ever. I think they plan on having the fittest horse to survive a slugfest.

Frosted - My Derby Choice. I still like him a lot if he does what he did in the Wood and also confirms my opinion that the key to him is Joel Rosario. Has worked perfectly for this too.

The rest are 10 Beyer Speed Figure points slower than these with the only hope among them being Keen Ice if he gets a suicidal pace to pounce on.

---------------

I'd like to see a fast pace develop for Frosted but I can't see the trainers of the others wanting that. Only way to beat American Pharoah would be to toast him on the front and have his breeding limitations surface in the final furlong.

Slowish pace develops with Materiality on front and American Pharoah on his flank with Mubtaahij with those two. Turning for home American Pharoah takes over. Materiality fades some and Mubtaahij stays on but doesn't accelerate. Frosted makes an eye catching move to draw even with American Pharoah. American Pharoah digs down and wins the Triple Crown.

$50 Exacta - American Pharoah / Frosted

$50 place Frosted

-$30 Exacta on the Pharoah over Frammento

$25 win on Something Extra 1.15
$20 win on Sky Kingdom 2.34
$25 win on Shook Up 3.15

Some real great racing tonight, I think Epsom could take a leaf out of it considering the crap on offer at the derby meeting.


Something extra finished 2nd but was given one of the worst rides I've seen, the jock had him in second all the way and yet never tried. The jock was Mike Smith, what the "£%& was he playing at.

R7 - Miss Ella
R9 - Tamarkuz e/way Heart ruling the head
R10 - Big Blue Kitten
R11 - Frosted - Coz Shiekh Hamdan says so

R7 SHOOK UP
R9 BAYERN
R10 WAR DANCER
R11 AP

Through Race 6, the Brooklyn Handicap, no one has won a bet. Mext up is the Acorn stakes.


PJ, I am assuming each is a $25 win bet unless you say otherwise.
Nashwan, I am assuming Miss Ella, Big Blue Kitten, and Frosted are all $20 win bets, and Tamarkuz gets a $20 Win/Place (total: $40) bet unless you say otherwise.

An article in Paulick Report asking California trainers if American Pharoah can win today...

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/santa-anita-horsemen-confident-in-pharoahs-belmont-chances/

The most persuasive answer to me...

Surprised that there is not inquiry/objection on the Met Mile. Tonalist was running strong only for Honor Code to slam him into Tamarkuz, cut him off, and then run past. Unbelievable miss... but it is live on national tv so I doubt the stewards would ever make a change.

With 2 races left, the Manhattan and the Belmont Stakes, no one has won a bet. It will come down to the final two stakes races on the day. Who will win the Competition?
Here are the bets remaining for each person:

Mjtags11
Race 11
-$10 WP on 1-Mubtaahij
-$2 Exacta of 5 with 1

Sirius Chill
Race 11
-$50 Exacta of 5 with 6
-$50 Place on 6-Frosted

Ghostzapper
Race 11
-$30 Exacta of 5 with 4

Nashwan
Race 10
-$20 Win on 5-Big Blue Kitten
Race 11
-$20 Win on 6-Frosted

PJRhodes
Race 10
-$25 Win on 4-War Dancer
Race 11
-$25 Win on 5-American Pharoah

I think the track is running fair for AP so there's no excuses on that front. The earlier 1m4 dirt race was run in a quick time of 2.27 and I'm looking for AP to run the Belmont in 2.26.00 and if he does that then he could be classed with the greats.

If AP is pressured down the stretch, or forced to go super fast early, I can see 2.26, however, I am looking at the final time of 2:28.26. If AP is to win, I see him winning clear, cantering home. If he is pressured late, I just can't see him winning, not at this distance. I am hoping that if anyone does beat AP, it is Mubtaahij (as I would like to cash a ticket for Belmont Park today... all my success today has been at Santa Anita and Epsom). But Good Luck to American Pharoah. My heart will be with him... just not my money.

He travels like my ghostzapper on the front and he's got Empire Maker( best middle distance pedigree in the US) in his pedigree and I cant see him getting beaten.

Just to good, the perfect trip. Perfect 12 sec's fraction's.

The time was a good 2.26 and change.

I hope Shared Belief comes back from injury for a monster race.

Goosebumps