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US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
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Author:  SiriusChill [ Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:57 am ]
Post subject:  US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
You've tipped the rest and now it's time to tip the best. Go USA rah rah.

Starting with Saturday's Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and ending with the Belmont Stakes this contest features all the Graded races for three year olds in that period. Filly races included and also turf races. One pick per race with an alternate choice allowed. A point system will be used...

1st = 10 points
2nd = 5 points
3rd = 3 points

Double points if your choice pays over $10 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
Triple points if your choice pays over $20 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Picks should be made at least 15 minutes prior.

For free past performances of most of the races if not all you can check these websites...

http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day - One race a day usually the biggest race of the day.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm - Most races can be found here. Check the trainer names or the sire names.

http://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/ - Pretty much the same as the above link but somewhat disorganised.

I will try my best to link to past performances of the races involved as far ahead of time as I can.

The Races
_________
March 5
The Gotham - Shagaf/Laoban/Adventist
San Ysabel - Songbird/Land Over Sea/Mokat
March 12
San Felipe - Danzing Candy/Mor Spirit/Exaggerator
Tampa Bay Derby - Tampa Bay Downs
Florida Oaks - Baciami Piccola/Enjoy Yourself/Family Meeting
Honeybee - Terra Promessa/Nickname/Cosmic Evolution
March 19
Rebel - Cupid/Whitmore/Creator
March 26
Louisiana Derby - Gun Runner/Tom's Ready/Dazzling Gem
Fair Grounds Oaks - Land Over Sea/Dream Dance/Adore
April 2
Florida Derby - Nyquist/Majesto/Fellowship
Gulfstream Park Oaks - Go Maggie Go/Paola Queen/Off The Tracks
Spiral - Oscar Nominated/Azar/Surgical Strike
Bourbonette Oaks - Wonderment/Inclusive/Marquee Miss
April 8
Transylvania - Shakhimat/J R 's Holiday/Inspector Lynley
April 9
Wood Memorial - Outwork/Trojan Nation/Adventist
Gazelle - Lewes Bay/Royal Obsession/Mo d'Amour
Bay Shore - Unified/King Kranz/Cocked and Loaded
Ashland - Weep No More/Rachel's Valentina/Cathryn Sophia
Blue Grass - Brody's Cause/My Man Sam/Cherry Wine
Fantasy - Terra Promessa/Taxable/Ready To Confess
Santa Anita Derby - Exaggerator/Mor Spirit/Uncle Lino
Santa Anita Oaks - Songbird/Mokat/She's A Warrior
Providencia - Decked Out/Jeremy's Legacy/Nodiac
April 14
Appalachian - Catch a Glimpse/Ava's Kitten/Outsider Art
April 16
Arkansas Derby - Creator/Suddenbreakingnews/Whitmore
Lexington - Collected/One More Round/Synchrony
April 17
Beaumont - Lightstream/Nickname/Kinsley Kisses
May 6
Kentucky Oaks - Cathryn Sophia/Land Over Sea/Lewes Bay
Eight Belles - Carina Mia/Blip n' Th Bye/Nickname
Edgewood - Catch a Glimpse/Auntie Joy/Harmonise
May 7
Kentucky Derby - Nyquist/Exaggerator/Gun Runner
American Turf - Camelot Kitten/Beach Patrol/Surgical Strike
Pat Day Mile - Sharp Azteca/Forevamo/Star Hill
May 14
Peter Pan - Unified/Governor Malibu/Wild About Deb
May 20
Black-Eyed Susan - Go Maggie Go/Ma Can Do It/Kinsley Kisses
May 21
Preakness -Exaggerator/Cherry Wine/Nyquist
May 28
Arlington Classic -Surgical Strike/One Mean Man/Swagger Jagger
June 4
Pennine Ridge - Camelot Kitten/Highland Sky/Call Provision
Penn Mile - Catch a Glimpse/Airoforce/Giant Run
June 11
Belmont - Belmont Park
Acorn - Belmont Park
Woody Stephens - Belmont Park

I realise US players are few here so I made this contest so I could finally win something since I won that duckpin bowling trophy in 6th grade. :? So the winner of this contest will win this beautiful trophy...

Image

So get involved. There's a picture of a bowling trophy at stake!
Author:  SiriusChill [ Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Gotham Stakes

Past Performances - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=AQU&country=USA&raceDate=20160305&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9

Hopefully the track won't be too speed favoring and somewhat fair but this is winter at Aqueduct. :? I like the looks of Conquest Big E. He has the most solid final fractions of all the runners and I'm hoping the last race was a prep for this and not a bad race. He ran against his style against a slow pace and the eventual winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Alternate choice - Sunny Ridge

Santa Ysabel Stakes

Past Performances - http://www.tlore.net/trainers/oneill/public/brisnet.cfm - Click horse Land Over Sea on saturday for the PP's of this race.

Surely Songbird is unbeatable? An easy ten points. I will take a flyer on another - Code Warrior. Her Santa Ynez was quite impressive and she has the dosage numbers of a stayer. Last race looks like a prep. Here's hoping the obscure connections know what they're doing.

Alternate Choice - Songbird


For an explanation of Brisnet past performances check here - http://www.brisnet.com/library/uwc.pdf
Author:  mjtags11 [ Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Gotham:
-The New York trail is very very weak. Sunny Ridge may be the best of them, but the New Jersey bred is giving 7 pounds to the rest of the field. That's a huge handicap to overcome so earlier in his career. I'll go with a price from the middle of the field, Mo Power. Uncle Mo has been a very sharp sire so far and I look for him to continue to rack up the sire points with this one.
--Top Pick: Mo Power
--Alternate: Shagaf

Santa Ysabel:
-1/9 on Songbird?!! Insane.... But accurate. Songbird is the best filly in the country (only horse with a chance to beat her is Polar River). I just can't see her losing here. My long time second choice Land Over Sea will continue to stay in the pocket spot for me.
--Top Pick: Songbird
--Alternate: Land Over Sea
Author:  SiriusChill [ Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Yes 1/9 morning lines are rare. Not sure I've ever seen one. It's interesting that 9 others are brave enough to run against a 1/9 shot. Probably says a lot about the others than a possible chink in Songbirds armor. Would you risk your animal against that beast in the hopes of getting some black type for the breeding shed?
Author:  SiriusChill [ Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Quote:
Sunny Ridge may be the best of them, but the New Jersey bred is giving 7 pounds to the rest of the field.


I like the looks of this gelding. He is reminiscent of the Maryland bred gelding Magic Weisner who gave War Emblem all he could handle in the Preakness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Weisner

Both of these horses appear to have a gameness that you see in geldings that you never know what their limit is because they try so hard. You step them up higher and higher and they keep getting the money. They thought Sunny Ridge was only worth 40k on debut. Half a million in earnings later he's a Gotham favorite.
Author:  ghostzapper74 [ Sat Mar 05, 2016 9:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Songbird and Shagaf for me.

I think the fillies are better than the colts this year. Cathryn Sophia has been mighty impressive this year and if not for Super Song would be odds on in my eyes for the Oaks. If the big 2 runs in the Oaks then it will be a better race than the Derby.
Author:  simpleminds [ Sat Mar 05, 2016 10:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Hi Sirius i'm not a follower of USA racing please could you let me know which USA Courses the races are run at I got Aqueduct from your post for Gotham but no idea where and what course song bird was running at so at 1/9 must be a cert.

Sunny Ridge

Song Bird



Gray
Author:  SiriusChill [ Sat Mar 05, 2016 10:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Sorry about that Gray I thought about adding track names before. I'll get to it later.

The Gotham Stakes is being run at Aqueduct around 4:50 pm US Eastern time.

The San Ysabel is being run at Santa Anita around 5:45 pm US Eastern time.
Author:  mjtags11 [ Sat Mar 05, 2016 11:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Two for Two in the first week (thanks to a scratch).

Songbird wasn't even asked. Just amazing! What a special filly!! Triple Tiara perhaps?
Author:  ghostzapper74 [ Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
mjtags11 wrote:
Two for Two in the first week (thanks to a scratch).

Songbird wasn't even asked. Just amazing! What a special filly!! Triple Tiara perhaps?


Just put her in the Derby, at this stage of her career she's the best filly I've ever seen. Perhaps go down the Rachel Alexandra route and win the oaks and give the boys a spanking in the Preakness.
Author:  SiriusChill [ Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Well an auspicious debut for me in my own competition. :o Songbird is quite something. She was flying the first half with no urging. Fractions of ~ 23.1 / 22.4 / 23.4 / 26.1 / 7. Maybe something with a decent rally can test her at some point. Mile and an eighth and farther she may be beatable.

That Gotham was drab. Speed favoring rail bias Aqueduct Inner Track winter racing at its finest. bleh.

The Gotham - Shagaf/Laoban/Adventist
San Ysabel - Songbird/Land Over Sea/Mokat

The Standings after week 1...

Ghostzapper - 20
mjtags - 20
Simpleminds - 10
SiriusChill - 0 :(
Author:  mjtags11 [ Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
I was so focused on the beauty of Songbird that I didn't even realize that Land Over Sea finished second. Should've bet the exacta! Would've paid more than double a win bet on her would've paid.
Author:  SiriusChill [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Past Performances for this weekends races. My choices later including my Big 'Cap choices.

The Florida Oaks - Look for horse Spinamiss
The Tampa Bay Derby - Look for horse Destin

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

The Honeybee - Look for horse Doradansa

http://www.mcpeekracing.com/entries.shtml

San Felipe - Look for horse Cupid

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm


On another note - Two sure cinches for the Hall of Fame if ever there were. Zenyatta in particular holds a very special place in my heart. Her Breeders Cup Classic was the most exciting and inspiring race I have ever witnessed - and that was on television. I wasn't even there.

http://www.drf.com/news/rachel-alexandra-zenyatta-among-hall-fame-finalists
Author:  SiriusChill [ Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Florida Oaks - A contentious race with what looks like a slow pace developing. My choice here is Conquest Bebop. Conquest Bebop ran a bang up race in her second start which was her seasonal debut. Ran fast all the way and fell short with non speed jockey Luis Saez aboard. The next start judging by the video replay was a prep for this - all important black type. She was running real good in the stretch. Alternate - Spinamiss

The Tampa Bay Derby - Boy I like the looks of Economic Model. He was really rolling at the end of the Swale. Second start of the year and lots of pace in front. Irad Ortiz back on. Alternate - Tale of S'avall

The Honeybee - Terra Promessa looks hard to beat and may explain the short field. Alternate - Dorodansa

San Felipe - All speed types with one confirmed closer - Mor Spirit should dominate. Alternate - Exaggerator


BONUS RACE! - No points just picks....

Santa Anita Handicap - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SA&country=USA&raceDate=20160312&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10

Going for a nice looking longshot. Melatonin ran lights out last time running almost identical fractions the whole race of ~ 23.3 / 23.3 / 23.4 / 24.0. He was geared down a bit in the stretch too. What I like the most is he is undefeated with Joe Talamo riding. Gets a featherweight of 114 and the others aren't worldbeaters. Alternate - Effinex
Author:  ghostzapper74 [ Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Florida Oaks - Gamble's Ghost been working well come on baby zapper.

Tampa Derby - Brody's Cause first race since the breeders cup.

Honeybee - Nickname should improve for the last race.
San Felipe - Exaggerator got good all round form.

Santa Anita H'cap - Donworth is improving fast.
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