San Felipe:
-I am completely on the Smokey Image bandwagon and won't be hopping off yet. After watching his romp in the Cal Cup Derby, I can't help but see a star in the making. But, there is just one major problem, there is a wealth of speed in this race. If he is involved in a speed duel, it is all over. There is only one horse in the field that isn't true speed and that is Mor Spirit. While he isn't the best horse in the field, I'll take him.
Top Pick: Mor Spirit
Alternate: Smokey Image

Tampa Bay Derby:
-Brody's Cause is the class of this field and should perform well off of the layoff. If he manages to win, he will jump to the top of my Derby Top 10. Closing on the Tampa Bay dirt is tough but he is just that much better than the field. I would also look out for Rafting, who will improve in his second start in the graded stakes class.
Top Pick: Brody's Cause
Alternate: Rafting

Florida Oaks:
-Just like the dirt, speed has been killer at Tampa Bay and the Florida Oaks looks like the type of race where speed will win. Ava's Kitten is the best of the speed and has shown good class. Coming off a layoff, this daughter of Kitten's Joy looks primed for a big performance for turf star Chad Brown.
Top Pick: Ava's Kitten
Alternate: Conquest Bebop

Honeybee:
-Nickname had a troubled trip last time when drawing the rail. Now drawing to the middle of the field, she should be able to get out of the traffic she encountered last race. Now in her second start at Oaklawn, she will improve off of the last race. Also, with all of the rain that Oaklawn has gotten over the past few days, there will be an off-track, which Nickname performed well on last time.
Top Pick: Nickname
Alternate: Cosmic Evolution

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Frank E. Kilroe Mile: Midnight Storm *BEST RACE OF THE DAY*
San Carlos: Calculator *BEST BET OF THE DAY*
Santa Anita Handicap: Effinex

Week 2 in the books and I picked up some steam.

The Standings after week 2...


mjtags - 30
Ghostzapper - 25
SiriusChill - 15
Simpleminds - 10


How about that Big 'Cap pick??? While looking at replays on the Bloodhorse website I stumbled upon a thread with a contest to pick winners on a series of races on Saturday. Just for fun and the winner gets to pick the next weeks races. I entered the contest and took the winners share. Join in if you want. You'll need a Disqus account to comment. BluePedal is indeed I.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2016/03/10/looking-for-a-longshot-in-the-tampa-bay-derby.aspx

Just took a look at that and found that many of my friends in the industry are on there haha!!

Nice pick in the Big Cap! Apparently Effinex had hives but the connections still chose to run him in the race without disclosing the information (although Barbara Livingston took a picture of him with hives and there was a news report on the condition). Santa Anita had some great races yesterday, but just didn't have the feel of a Grade One day. The Dubai World Cup took away some stars that would've went and really impacted Santa Anita's biggest day of the Winter meet. Hopefully next year they make some changes to get those big names back for this race.

Rebel Stakes past performances can be found here...

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20160319&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10

Sunday's Sunland Park Derby has been cancelled due to an outbreak of equine herpes virus.

The Rebel Stakes...

A good amount of speed in here ensures a solid pace but I wouldn't be surprised if all the speed goes slower than expected. I had settled on the big late run of Cherry Wine but I have a feeling this may be a prep for another race after a two month break. Cherry Wine has really put it together with Corey Lanerie riding.

I have gone with the big rally of Creator. It seems they thought he was better on turf because his first two starts were on turf. He eventually made it to dirt races and he is running quite well. Two huge rallies against slow paces at the Fair Grounds to finish second. Ships to Oaklawn and wins in hand with a perfect setup. I'm hoping he gets that setup again.

Creator's entry mate Madtap has gone ballistic with the addition of blinkers. The one to beat in my book.

Cupid seemed headstrong in his first two starts and faded. His last he sat close up again but the pace was slow and he rolled at the end. If he always prefers being up close he will not like the pace of this race. He has to settle farther back than normal.

Creator/Madtap
Cherry wine - Alternate

Rebel Stakes Pick: Cupid (Alternate: Gray Sky)

And just for the heck of it, the other stakes races at Oaklawn:
Azeri Stakes Pick: Untapable
Razorback Handicap Pick: Carve

And my picks for the replacement races for the Sunland Derby and Oaks:
Festival of Racing Stakes: Collected
Plum Pretty Stakes: K P Wildcat


-------------------------------------------------
My Rebel Analysis from my site:

1. Creator
After romping home in his last race, a Maiden Special Weight at Oaklawn, this Steve Asmussen trainee steps up into graded stakes company for the first time. Sure to be bet, putting up two 80+ Beyers in his career and was very eye-catching making up 11 lengths to win by over 7. However, the races he has been in have been so slow early, that he never really needed much to get up. Having taken 6 tries to break his maiden, I'll leave this one alone. If he beats me, oh well, but the class of the races he has been in just doesn't seem enough to warrant a bet on him.

3. Ralis
Doug O'Neill has plenty of Derby hopefuls and Ralis is no other, winner of the Hopefuly last summer. However, his inconsistency is a major concern and he hasn't been training as well as he could. With very slow times in his past workouts, he will need to show up to have a chance. Not convinced that this will be a winning effort. Toss.

4. Cupid
Bob Baffert is in love with the Rebel, having won the race five of the last six years. He ships Cupid over to try to capture his record sixth Rebel. After easily winning the last race at Santa Anita to break his maiden, Cupid has been working very well. However, Baffert aimed his horse at the Sunland Derby instead, making me worry about how good this horse really is. His last race was one of the better ones in this field. I'll give him a good, long look.

5. Discreetness
After capturing the Smarty Jones back in January, the Springboard Mile winner just couldn't get going in the Southwest. However, I won't discount him because of that. Jon Court sat him much farther back than usual and Discreetness couldn't get going late because of it. I expect to see him much closer to the pace this time out. Maybe not classy enough to win, but an in the money finish is possible.

6. Siding Spring
2015 was the year of Mark Casse, but Siding Spring is not living up to that moniker. He has done his best running on the turf and has been trying dirt his last two efforts. He may have some class, but it won't be on the dirt. Toss.

7. Spikes Shirl
Dallas Stewart has been known to have longshots hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. This year he may have found another. Spikes Shirl is a solid horse for Fipke and Stewart. Having run very even races the last two times, he may be able to get going late if the pace ends up flattening out. I won't doubt this horse yet, but not a true win contender. Remind me of this horse when making my Kentucky Derby exotics.

1a. Madtap
The other Asmussen runner is far from having the class to fit in this field. Although he scored an 89 Beyer in his last race, a six length score at Oaklawn. Now stepping up in class, he has a chance at a win if he can be within one length of the leader (or on the lead) in the early going of the race, something he has only done once in his career.

8. American Dubai
One of the faster horses in this race, this Rodney Richards runner should get the lead in this race. If he can slow it down early, he may be able to run with this race. Reminds me a lot of Trinniberg. Not the best in this race, but such a speed threat and gets Chris Landeros for this one. I'm using him.

2. Z Royal
The Coach, D. Wayne Lukas brings in this son of Eskendereya after two poor efforts in graded stakes. Not seeing much promise in this class for this Zayat runner. Doesn't look like Ahmed Zayat will capture back-to-back Rebels.

2x. Gray Sky
The better of the two Lukas runners, this one comes out of a close second place finish to the unbeaten Dazzling Gem. Although he had no success in the Smarty Jones, just reeling behind, he improved greatly after the last race. Major threat to win and gets Florent Geroux aboard.

9. Cutacorner
I won't doubt this horses ability, but I don't see enough from him to win this race. He was never a factor in the Southwest and hasn't seemed to want to put together a good effort time in and time out. He has been working really well, however, and looks poised for a big run. I'll use him in my exotics, but not my win contender here.

10. Whitmore
Irad Ortiz, Jr. doesn't make too many trips down to Oaklawn, and when he does, he goes for the win. Whitmore was able to capture the place money last time and can easily do it again. He raced very wide last time out, and just got passed down the stretch by the roaring Suddenbreakingnews. I'm giving Whitmore a huge shot here, a horse that looks to get better as the races get longer.

11. Cherry Wine
Two straight wins have put this horse into this spot, and just like most Dale Romans Derby hopefuls, he is a closer. He may enjoy an off track more than a fast one, but has the skill to run well here. I'll use him at the bottom of my Trifectas.

12. Suddenbreakingnews
It is rare to see a Mineshaft offspring doing so well this early in its career. Suddenbreakingnews has yet to finish worse than second and has been very tough down the lane. He has been working a little slower than he was coming into the Southwest, which is a worry, but he has been so good in each outing that it is hard to discount him. Drawing an outer post again makes it another tough challenge to win, especially if he drops back as far as he did last time. I think he is the class fo the race, but carrying the most weight he has ever carried (and at least 5 more pounds than most of the field, outside of Discreetness, who also carries 122) will make this a weary bet. Won't be my top pick, but will appear on all of my tickets.

(see more at http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com)

Cupid for me, it looks a weak field and the only horse in the field that could be a derby runner. Looks a bit of a morning glory horse so will he show it in the afternoon's.

I want K T Wildcat in the Plum Pretty at Sunland, a local star and it ill be interesting to see if she can step up in class. I love her running style, a bit of the Zenyatta's about her.

Cupid!!!!!! After hitting the rail early down the stretch, Martin Garcia guided him home easily. What a win! Onto the Arkansas Derby for this one.

Impressive performance by Cupid. Last out he rallied from slightly off a slow pace and in the Rebel he leads all the way with a fast pace. I like this pattern.

The Standings after week 3...


mjtags - 40
Ghostzapper - 35
SiriusChill - 18
Simpleminds - 10

The Louisiana Derby - Past performances found here (Look for horse Battery) - http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

On paper this race is void of much speed with the exception of Candy My Boy. I think a lot of folks will be on him but I will pass thinking his last took too much out of him. I like the looks of Forevamo. His first two starts were full of speed and him fading. In his third start Colby Hernandez got on board and he rallied big time. He has continued to improve his rally since then and third back off the layoff is a plus. Mo Tom looks very good but may be too far back off the slow pace. I waffled about Greenpointcrusader. I can't figure why he has had so many jockey changes for such a top class horse.

Forevamo
Mo Tom - alternate

Greenpointcrusader for me, always thought a lot of this horse and his last race was probably the best form of any horse going into this. Johnny V would have ridden him in every race but his trainer ( Pletcher) has had horses in those races.

Louisiana Derby:
-While Gun Runner should lead them down the stretch at the Fair Grounds, this will be a much tougher race. Both Forevamo and Mo Tom were closing well in the Risen Star and I will be using them back again. The outside post should help Forevamo, who would rather find a spot to close from early rather than get caught on the rail.
Top Pick: Forevamo
Alternate: Mo Tom

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Fair Grounds Oaks:
-The fillies get their shot here and I am going with Land Over Sea in this one. She has been knocking at the door but kept falling short behind Songbird. She gets away from Songbird and looks very live here.
Top Pick: Land Over Sea
Alternate: Stageplay

I'm glad someone is paying attention. I forgot the Fair Ground Oaks.

Adore
Land Over Sea - Alternate.

Week 4 is done. Gun Runner is starting to look like a real force. Forevamo ran his race but was wide most of the way and was beaten fair and square. I'd stick to a mile and a sixteenth and less with him If I were training him. Land Over Sea was pretty impressive which makes Songbird look even better if that is possible.

The Standings after week 4...


mjtags - 50
Ghostzapper - 35
SiriusChill - 21
Simpleminds - 10

Very excited to see Mohaymen v Nyquist.

Going to be interesting to see if either are the real deal. I did my speed figures for this year's Derby preps and they are quite slow compared to past years. The top figure is the Holy Bull for Mohaymen, with a 9.6.
The last time there was not one figure above 10 in the preps, 2007.
To compare to last year, Firing Line got a 16.5 in the Sunland Derby, Dortmund a 13.0 in the San Felipe, and American Pharoah got a 7.7 in the Arkansas Derby.
Look at 2014, where California Chrome received a 21.8 in the San Felipe and a 15.5 in the Santa Anita Derby; since 2005, only one horse received a higher figure, Consolidator in the San Felipe.
Wonder if these figures will increase in the final leg of preps.

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Land Over Sea was much the best yesterday and I have been high on her since the fall. While I think Songbird is well and away the best 3yo filly in the nation (and perhaps the world), Land Over Sea could challenge her come the First Friday in May.

Florida Derby and Oaks past performances can be found here (Look for horses Nyquist and Gomo) - http://www.tlore.net/trainers/oneill/public/brisnet.cfm

Spiral past performances - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=TP&country=USA&raceDate=20160402&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10

Bourbonette past performances (Look for horse Wonderment) - http://www.mcpeekracing.com/entries.shtml