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 US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest 
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Friday's Past Performances...

The Kentucky Oaks - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20160506&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

Eight Belles (Look for horse Jade Princess) - http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

Edgewood (Look for horse Heavenly View) - http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

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Thu May 05, 2016 8:07 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Friday's picks...

The Kentucky Oaks - Lewis Bay / Cathryn Sophia - alt.

The Eight Belles - Jade Princess / Summer Reading - alt.

The Edgewood - Harmonise / Catch a Glimpse - alt.

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Thu May 05, 2016 8:10 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Kentucky Oaks - Go Maggie Go

The Eight Belles - Carina Mia

The Edgewood - Catch a Glimpse


Thu May 05, 2016 5:19 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Kentucky Oaks: Land Over Sea (Rachel's Valentina)
I’ve been on the Land Over Sea bandwagon for a while, and I’m not hopping off yet. She got very unlucky running against Songbird in five consecutive races. She finished 2nd to Songbird three times and has just looking better and better. Her late strides are impressive. Rachel’s Valentina couldn’t get past Songbird or Weep No More in her last two races, but she has been working well. She only has one start this year and four starts overall, but she may like going long.

Eight Belles: Nickname (Marquee Miss)
Nickname tried her hand in some of the bigger stakes races on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. She’s been knocking on the door and looks to be in good form. Marquee Miss tried the Oaklawn preps, but didn’t stay the trip. She came out and finished third at Turfway. I’d like to see her regain her early 2016 form.

Edgewood: Catch A Glimpse (Ava's Kitten)
This edition of the Edgewood looks to be very formful. Catch A Glimpse hasn’t done much wrong, and the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf winner looks to be coming into this race in great form. After two easy wins at Woodbine, she has won race after race, improving nicely since then. I can’t bet against her. Ava’s Kitten may prefer going longer than this, but she was just barely beaten by Catch A Glimpse last time out. I expect them to run one-two again here.

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Thu May 05, 2016 9:46 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Kentucky Derby - Mor Spirit (Gun Runner)
It was tough deciding between Mor Spirit and Gun Runner for the top spot, but ultimately it came down to who had the better late closing kick. While Gun Runner may be better suited for the distance, his closing kick was erratic and wasn’t sustained through the whole stretch while Mor Spirit, although needed to be asked repeatedly, has a strong late kick that gobbles up the ground.
After falling to Airoforce in the slop of Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he bounced back with a going away win in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Once the year started, he headed to Santa Anita and took the Robert B. Lewis in impressive fashion. However, he met a strong loan leader in Danzing Candy in the San Felipe, unable to run him down, before having to close in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby against Exaggerator. Gary Stevens was told by Bob Baffert to not press him much if there wasn’t a chance to win. With a very good second place finish, he was racing a lot better than Stevens asked him.
His running style is as a solid stalker, sitting about three lengths off the pace, letting the front runners do most of the work up early. Once he hits the top of the stretch, he is geared to make his move. While it does take a lot of asking to get him to kick it into high gear, his late kick is explosive. He was able to easily move by late in both the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert B. Lewis, but was unable to take the lead in his other two preps. However, he was able to grab some ground late, even making some ground up on Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby. He doesn’t like an off track all that much, but has yet to finish out of the exacta in his seven career races. He should get a fast track on Saturday and should relish the longer stretch of Churchill Downs.
His pedigree shows that he can get the distance, in fact he should relish this distance. While I don’t like that he has Storm Cat on the sire line and not a lot of Mr. Prospector overall, he has the same sire lines as Big Brown (Northern Dancer on both sire line and dam sire line). He has a dosage index of at 1.57 and a center of distribution of 0.44. The average dosage index of the field is 3.33, which is high for the Kentucky Derby. Historically, when the DI average is above 3, the DI of the winner is below 2. With four horses with a DI above 4 (Suddenbreakingnews 4.20, Dazzling Gem 5.00, Nyquist 7.00, and Outwork 11.00) this race has a lot of horses with more speed than stamina (odd since this race is devoid of front runners). With such a high DI average, horses with lower DI will perform better, like Mor Spirit.
In his works, Mor Spirit has been exceptional. In his work on May 2nd, he easily worked out the half mile, going faster than he was schedule, running without even being asked. I love to see a horse who just loves to run, whether asked or not.
Mor Spirit has two hall of famers in his pocket, Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert and three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens. He is a horse that loves to run and knows what he is supposed to do, race and win. Mor Spirit has the heart of a champion and has been saving up for this race. I can’t help but think that he is sitting on a huge race. He has the profile of a Derby winner and looks to be getting better as the races get longer.

Pat Day Mile - Forevamo (Gray Sky)
A wide open betting affair, the Pat Day Mile has a lot of very good 3yos who couldn’t get into the Derby. Forevamo was always in it down in Louisiana and shows a lot of late speed. I’m interested to see him shorten up and try the mile. Gray Sky could very well get the early lead in this paceless race. If he can snag that lead, he may wire the field.

American Turf - Shakimat (Airoforce)
Very difficult race. I’m going with Shakimat, the probably Queen’s Plate favorite, after his impressive win in the Transylvania, one of the best wins I saw all Keeneland meet. Airoforce finally returns to turf after having a miserable time in the Derby preps and could run well.

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Sat May 07, 2016 5:33 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Kentucky Derby - Suddenbreakingnews/Gun Runner/Nyquist

American Turf - Converge/American Patriot/J R 's Holiday

Pat Day Mile - Fellowship/Ralis/Discreetness


Derby - I'm going with what I see in the early betting and the Oaks/Derby Double payoffs. Suddenbreakingnews is getting bet pretty well. I re-examined his form and can see him winning. His Beyer level is a few points off of Nyquist so it's going to be a big ask. I'm hoping he can show some of the speed he showed early in his career. His days between races is a really nice pattern of - 64/33/28/21.The Derby is the fastest he is coming back for a race. His final quarters are some of the best in the race too. Gun Runner is a nice specimen and he gets a good spot inside where he can break ahead of everyone around him and secure a good position. Nyquist will be really hard to beat. Here's hoping he can't get the distance but I suspect he probably can and I won't be surprised if he wins easily.

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Sat May 07, 2016 7:00 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Well Nyquist won easily again without being pushed too hard. I can see him winning the Triple Crown. Thanks for giving us a chance Ghost and forgoing your Derby Day picks.

The standings after week 8...

Ghostzapper - 153
mjtags - 117
SiriusChill - 93
PeterS94 - 63
Simpleminds - 13

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Tue May 10, 2016 9:02 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Peter Pan: Unified


Thu May 12, 2016 5:49 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Going with Unified in the Peter Pan.

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Sat May 14, 2016 6:15 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Wild About Deb to cause a upset.


Sat May 14, 2016 6:37 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Peter Pan - Wild About Deb is skipping allowance conditions. Skipping over Grade 3 level. Shipping 3000 miles to run in the Peter Pan today. Her last race was impressive.

Wild About Deb
Unified - alt.

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Sat May 14, 2016 7:24 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Unified showed a nice ability to rate and win. Still the distance looked too long. He will be a force at a mile to a mile and a sixteenth.

The standings after week 9...

Ghostzapper - 156
mjtags - 127
SiriusChill - 96
PeterS94 - 73
Simpleminds - 13
jstu9 - 10

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Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri May 20, 2016 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed May 18, 2016 11:21 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Past Performances for the Black Eyed Susan and Preakness can be found here - http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day

The Preakness Past Performances aren't up yet so give it a day.

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Wed May 18, 2016 11:28 pm
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
SiriusChill wrote:
Unified showed a nice ability to rate and win. Still the distance looked too long. He will be a force at a mile to a mile and a sixteenth.

The standings after week 9...

Ghostzapper - 156
mjtags - 127
SiriusChill - 96
PeterS94 - 73
Simpleminds - 13


I didn't make the standings? :(

Anyways,
Black Eyed Susan: Land Over Sea
Preakness: Nyquist


Fri May 20, 2016 6:21 am
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Post Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Sorry bud I was used to the regulars choices that I forgot to add you in. I'll fix that now. Thanks for the heads up.

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Fri May 20, 2016 7:32 am
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