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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
You've tipped the rest and now it's time to tip the best. Go USA rah rah. Starting with Saturday's Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and ending with the Belmont Stakes this contest features all the Graded races for three year olds in that period. Filly races included and also turf races. One pick per race with an alternate choice allowed. A point system will be used... 1st = 10 points 2nd = 5 points 3rd = 3 points Double points if your choice pays over $10 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Triple points if your choice pays over $20 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Picks should be made at least 15 minutes prior. For free past performances of most of the races if not all you can check these websites... http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day - One race a day usually the biggest race of the day. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm - Most races can be found here. Check the trainer names or the sire names. http://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/ - Pretty much the same as the above link but somewhat disorganised. I will try my best to link to past performances of the races involved as far ahead of time as I can. The Races _________ March 5 The Gotham - Shagaf/Laoban/Adventist San Ysabel - Songbird/Land Over Sea/Mokat March 12 San Felipe - Danzing Candy/Mor Spirit/Exaggerator Tampa Bay Derby - Tampa Bay Downs Florida Oaks - Baciami Piccola/Enjoy Yourself/Family Meeting Honeybee - Terra Promessa/Nickname/Cosmic Evolution March 19 Rebel - Cupid/Whitmore/Creator March 26 Louisiana Derby - Gun Runner/Tom's Ready/Dazzling Gem Fair Grounds Oaks - Land Over Sea/Dream Dance/Adore April 2 Florida Derby - Nyquist/Majesto/Fellowship Gulfstream Park Oaks - Go Maggie Go/Paola Queen/Off The Tracks Spiral - Oscar Nominated/Azar/Surgical Strike Bourbonette Oaks - Wonderment/Inclusive/Marquee Miss April 8 Transylvania - Shakhimat/J R 's Holiday/Inspector Lynley April 9 Wood Memorial - Outwork/Trojan Nation/Adventist Gazelle - Lewes Bay/Royal Obsession/Mo d'Amour Bay Shore - Unified/King Kranz/Cocked and Loaded Ashland - Weep No More/Rachel's Valentina/Cathryn Sophia Blue Grass - Brody's Cause/My Man Sam/Cherry Wine Fantasy - Terra Promessa/Taxable/Ready To Confess Santa Anita Derby - Exaggerator/Mor Spirit/Uncle Lino Santa Anita Oaks - Songbird/Mokat/She's A Warrior Providencia - Decked Out/Jeremy's Legacy/Nodiac April 14 Appalachian - Catch a Glimpse/Ava's Kitten/Outsider Art April 16 Arkansas Derby - Creator/Suddenbreakingnews/Whitmore Lexington - Collected/One More Round/Synchrony April 17 Beaumont - Lightstream/Nickname/Kinsley KissesMay 6 Kentucky Oaks - Cathryn Sophia/Land Over Sea/Lewes Bay Eight Belles - Carina Mia/Blip n' Th Bye/Nickname Edgewood - Catch a Glimpse/Auntie Joy/Harmonise May 7 Kentucky Derby - Nyquist/Exaggerator/Gun Runner American Turf - Camelot Kitten/Beach Patrol/Surgical Strike Pat Day Mile - Sharp Azteca/Forevamo/Star HillMay 14 Peter Pan - Unified/Governor Malibu/Wild About DebMay 20 Black-Eyed Susan - Go Maggie Go/Ma Can Do It/Kinsley Kisses May 21 Preakness -Exaggerator/Cherry Wine/Nyquist May 28 Arlington Classic -Surgical Strike/One Mean Man/Swagger JaggerJune 4 Pennine Ridge - Camelot Kitten/Highland Sky/Call Provision Penn Mile - Catch a Glimpse/Airoforce/Giant RunJune 11Belmont - Belmont Park Acorn - Belmont Park Woody Stephens - Belmont Park I realise US players are few here so I made this contest so I could finally win something since I won that duckpin bowling trophy in 6th grade. So the winner of this contest will win this beautiful trophy... So get involved. There's a picture of a bowling trophy at stake!
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:30 am, edited 15 times in total.
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Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:57 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Gotham StakesPast Performances - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=AQU&country=USA&raceDate=20160305&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9Hopefully the track won't be too speed favoring and somewhat fair but this is winter at Aqueduct. I like the looks of Conquest Big E. He has the most solid final fractions of all the runners and I'm hoping the last race was a prep for this and not a bad race. He ran against his style against a slow pace and the eventual winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Alternate choice - Sunny RidgeSanta Ysabel StakesPast Performances - http://www.tlore.net/trainers/oneill/public/brisnet.cfm - Click horse Land Over Sea on saturday for the PP's of this race. Surely Songbird is unbeatable? An easy ten points. I will take a flyer on another - Code Warrior. Her Santa Ynez was quite impressive and she has the dosage numbers of a stayer. Last race looks like a prep. Here's hoping the obscure connections know what they're doing. Alternate Choice - SongbirdFor an explanation of Brisnet past performances check here - http://www.brisnet.com/library/uwc.pdf
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:12 am |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Gotham: -The New York trail is very very weak. Sunny Ridge may be the best of them, but the New Jersey bred is giving 7 pounds to the rest of the field. That's a huge handicap to overcome so earlier in his career. I'll go with a price from the middle of the field, Mo Power. Uncle Mo has been a very sharp sire so far and I look for him to continue to rack up the sire points with this one. --Top Pick: Mo Power --Alternate: Shagaf
Santa Ysabel: -1/9 on Songbird?!! Insane.... But accurate. Songbird is the best filly in the country (only horse with a chance to beat her is Polar River). I just can't see her losing here. My long time second choice Land Over Sea will continue to stay in the pocket spot for me. --Top Pick: Songbird --Alternate: Land Over Sea
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Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:09 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Yes 1/9 morning lines are rare. Not sure I've ever seen one. It's interesting that 9 others are brave enough to run against a 1/9 shot. Probably says a lot about the others than a possible chink in Songbirds armor. Would you risk your animal against that beast in the hopes of getting some black type for the breeding shed?
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:17 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Quote: Sunny Ridge may be the best of them, but the New Jersey bred is giving 7 pounds to the rest of the field. I like the looks of this gelding. He is reminiscent of the Maryland bred gelding Magic Weisner who gave War Emblem all he could handle in the Preakness. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_WeisnerBoth of these horses appear to have a gameness that you see in geldings that you never know what their limit is because they try so hard. You step them up higher and higher and they keep getting the money. They thought Sunny Ridge was only worth 40k on debut. Half a million in earnings later he's a Gotham favorite.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:54 pm |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Songbird and Shagaf for me.
I think the fillies are better than the colts this year. Cathryn Sophia has been mighty impressive this year and if not for Super Song would be odds on in my eyes for the Oaks. If the big 2 runs in the Oaks then it will be a better race than the Derby.
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Sat Mar 05, 2016 9:24 am |
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simpleminds
Group 1 winner
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:56 pm Posts: 5666 Location: uk
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Hi Sirius i'm not a follower of USA racing please could you let me know which USA Courses the races are run at I got Aqueduct from your post for Gotham but no idea where and what course song bird was running at so at 1/9 must be a cert.
Sunny Ridge
Song Bird
Gray
_________________simple in mind but wonderful in young lifehttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNzbn9 ... idx5pNkHaQ
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Sat Mar 05, 2016 10:44 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Sorry about that Gray I thought about adding track names before. I'll get to it later.
The Gotham Stakes is being run at Aqueduct around 4:50 pm US Eastern time.
The San Ysabel is being run at Santa Anita around 5:45 pm US Eastern time.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Mar 05, 2016 10:51 am |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Two for Two in the first week (thanks to a scratch).
Songbird wasn't even asked. Just amazing! What a special filly!! Triple Tiara perhaps?
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Sat Mar 05, 2016 11:55 pm |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
mjtags11 wrote: Two for Two in the first week (thanks to a scratch).
Songbird wasn't even asked. Just amazing! What a special filly!! Triple Tiara perhaps? Just put her in the Derby, at this stage of her career she's the best filly I've ever seen. Perhaps go down the Rachel Alexandra route and win the oaks and give the boys a spanking in the Preakness.
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Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:09 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Well an auspicious debut for me in my own competition. Songbird is quite something. She was flying the first half with no urging. Fractions of ~ 23.1 / 22.4 / 23.4 / 26.1 / 7. Maybe something with a decent rally can test her at some point. Mile and an eighth and farther she may be beatable. That Gotham was drab. Speed favoring rail bias Aqueduct Inner Track winter racing at its finest. bleh. The Gotham - Shagaf/Laoban/Adventist San Ysabel - Songbird/Land Over Sea/Mokat The Standings after week 1... Ghostzapper - 20 mjtags - 20 Simpleminds - 10 SiriusChill - 0
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:24 am |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
I was so focused on the beauty of Songbird that I didn't even realize that Land Over Sea finished second. Should've bet the exacta! Would've paid more than double a win bet on her would've paid.
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Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:48 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Past Performances for this weekends races. My choices later including my Big 'Cap choices. The Florida Oaks - Look for horse Spinamiss The Tampa Bay Derby - Look for horse Destin http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htmlThe Honeybee - Look for horse Doradansa http://www.mcpeekracing.com/entries.shtmlSan Felipe - Look for horse Cupid http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htmOn another note - Two sure cinches for the Hall of Fame if ever there were. Zenyatta in particular holds a very special place in my heart. Her Breeders Cup Classic was the most exciting and inspiring race I have ever witnessed - and that was on television. I wasn't even there. http://www.drf.com/news/rachel-alexandra-zenyatta-among-hall-fame-finalists
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:58 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
The Florida Oaks - A contentious race with what looks like a slow pace developing. My choice here is Conquest Bebop. Conquest Bebop ran a bang up race in her second start which was her seasonal debut. Ran fast all the way and fell short with non speed jockey Luis Saez aboard. The next start judging by the video replay was a prep for this - all important black type. She was running real good in the stretch. Alternate - SpinamissThe Tampa Bay Derby - Boy I like the looks of Economic Model. He was really rolling at the end of the Swale. Second start of the year and lots of pace in front. Irad Ortiz back on. Alternate - Tale of S'avallThe Honeybee - Terra Promessa looks hard to beat and may explain the short field. Alternate - DorodansaSan Felipe - All speed types with one confirmed closer - Mor Spirit should dominate. Alternate - ExaggeratorBONUS RACE! - No points just picks.... Santa Anita Handicap - http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SA&country=USA&raceDate=20160312&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10Going for a nice looking longshot. Melatonin ran lights out last time running almost identical fractions the whole race of ~ 23.3 / 23.3 / 23.4 / 24.0. He was geared down a bit in the stretch too. What I like the most is he is undefeated with Joe Talamo riding. Gets a featherweight of 114 and the others aren't worldbeaters. Alternate - Effinex
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:13 am |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: US Triple Crown Trail Handicapping Contest
Florida Oaks - Gamble's Ghost been working well come on baby zapper.
Tampa Derby - Brody's Cause first race since the breeders cup.
Honeybee - Nickname should improve for the last race. San Felipe - Exaggerator got good all round form.
Santa Anita H'cap - Donworth is improving fast.
Last edited by ghostzapper74 on Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:01 pm |
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