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| Horses Who Have Beaten Winx http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=16842 |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
Pricey wrote: I think Winx is a classy horse, definitely up there with the best on known form. However there is a nagging doubt that the best middle distance turf horses are in Europe between the Irish, British and French, and I'm guessing connections do too or they wouldn't even entertain brining her over next summer. It cant be total coincidence over the years that so many under achieving horses here go to Australia and are suddenly able to compete in their top Group 1 contests. I hope it happens and she has a long and successful campaign over here, I really look forward to seeing her in the flesh. That is correct - a fair few horses do end up in Oz but the majority of them don't do much at all. I guess a few are bought for their blood lines more so than their talent and most are owners taking a gamble. Hartnell has been about the best of the lot to come over and he's only won 2 Group 1 races, 2 G2 races and a G3 and was absolutely blown away by Winx in the 2016 Cox Plate. In the 2015 Cox Plate Highland Reel finished 5.5 lengths 3rd to Winx - here is the replay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=graxxfQ68OA So Winx has beaten the current Prince of Wales winner but still doesn't rate? |
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| Author: | Pricey [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: Pricey wrote: I think Winx is a classy horse, definitely up there with the best on known form. However there is a nagging doubt that the best middle distance turf horses are in Europe between the Irish, British and French, and I'm guessing connections do too or they wouldn't even entertain brining her over next summer. It cant be total coincidence over the years that so many under achieving horses here go to Australia and are suddenly able to compete in their top Group 1 contests. I hope it happens and she has a long and successful campaign over here, I really look forward to seeing her in the flesh. That is correct - a fair few horses do end up in Oz but the majority of them don't do much at all. I guess a few are bought for their blood lines more so than their talent and most are owners taking a gamble. Hartnell has been about the best of the lot to come over and he's only won 2 Group 1 races, 2 G2 races and a G3 and was absolutely blown away by Winx in the 2016 Cox Plate. In the 2015 Cox Plate Highland Reel finished 5.5 lengths 3rd to Winx - here is the replay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=graxxfQ68OA So Winx has beaten the current Prince of Wales winner but still doesn't rate? A superb performance no doubt, albeit on a tight track that would have suited her skill set much more than Highland Reel, who seems much better when allowed a lead on a galloping track. I say this with the utmost respect, because i do think Winx is a great horse and I really hope she comes over and does well, but i think she'd be vulnerable on the stiffer tracks here over a strongly run 10f, I can see why they have touted the Lockinge over 1m as a starting point. As you've said, ground wont be an issue for her, but if I was connections of her opposition I'd get some pacemakers in, especially if she tackles Enable or Cracksman who have stamina to burn. |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
Personally, over the mile at Ascot - I think that will be in her favour because of it's up-hill run. On a flat track like in Australia and elsewhere in England - I think she is vulnerable. She definitely lacked early pace during her last prep' over a mile and she had to sustain long sprints to finish off her races - and a few Aussie horses tried doing her in by being pacemakers. If she comes back in good order - you'll need pacemakers that will have to set near record pace to undo her. She will get 10f. |
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| Author: | PeterS94 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
A quick question has Winx ran over a straight mile like Newbury? |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
PeterS94 wrote: A quick question has Winx ran over a straight mile like Newbury? No. |
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| Author: | Degaussed [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: Pricey wrote: I think Winx is a classy horse, definitely up there with the best on known form. However there is a nagging doubt that the best middle distance turf horses are in Europe between the Irish, British and French, and I'm guessing connections do too or they wouldn't even entertain brining her over next summer. It cant be total coincidence over the years that so many under achieving horses here go to Australia and are suddenly able to compete in their top Group 1 contests. I hope it happens and she has a long and successful campaign over here, I really look forward to seeing her in the flesh. That is correct - a fair few horses do end up in Oz but the majority of them don't do much at all. I guess a few are bought for their blood lines more so than their talent and most are owners taking a gamble. Hartnell has been about the best of the lot to come over and he's only won 2 Group 1 races, 2 G2 races and a G3 and was absolutely blown away by Winx in the 2016 Cox Plate. In the 2015 Cox Plate Highland Reel finished 5.5 lengths 3rd to Winx - here is the replay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=graxxfQ68OA So Winx has beaten the current Prince of Wales winner but still doesn't rate? Very impressive, but Winx had the perfect trip. The fast-slow-fast pace of the race wouldn't have suited Highland Reel, who himself is better on ground with 'firm' in the description and over 12 furlongs. He would have preferred an end-to-end gallop, which is how he's won most of his group 1 races. He was also a much better four and five year old than he was a three year old. Not to take anything away from her though, as she was clearly the best horse in that race pretty comfortably. Looking ahead to next season: Timeform have the 'big three' rated (on their best performances last season) as:
Enable - 134 Winx - 134 If Winx were to come over she would be doing so in the Twilight of her career against two horses who should improve into being four-year-olds; she would have to maintain her peak level against horses likely to progress even further next year. And she would have to do so in her winter, having travelled halfway across the world, to race on stiffer, more undulating and galloping tracks than what she's used to, when she's almost certainly past her absolute best. If they're brave enough to bring her over and take on Cracksman and/or Enable, then that's brilliant for racing and would be some race. But I can't see the logic in it, or how she realistically beats either of them. |
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| Author: | Degaussed [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: Personally, over the mile at Ascot - I think that will be in her favour because of it's up-hill run. On a flat track like in Australia and elsewhere in England - I think she is vulnerable. She definitely lacked early pace during her last prep' over a mile and she had to sustain long sprints to finish off her races - and a few Aussie horses tried doing her in by being pacemakers. If she comes back in good order - you'll need pacemakers that will have to set near record pace to undo her. She will get 10f. I don't see how pacemakers would un-do Winx, to be honest. If anything they play into her favour by ensuring a faster pace, thus meaning those racing prominently get tired and fall away, leaving Winx to run through late on. Setting a steady pace, which then allows the horses at the front of the race the chance to quick at the end, would surely be the best way to go about it? |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
What do you mean by 'Stiffer tracks'? |
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| Author: | Pricey [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: What do you mean by 'Stiffer tracks'? Courses like Ascot and Newmarket are 'stiffer tracks' due to the uphill run to the finish line, it obviously puts much more emphasis on stamina and you nearly always need a horse that stays well to win there, for example the straight mile at Ascot is almost all slightly uphill. I must admit I dont know a great deal about many of the Australian tracks, but one's like Moonee Valley look very tight and completely different to the test Winx would recieve over here. |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
Yeah the Valley is a tight and a fast track - no room to sit and sprint....pretty much be on the pace or no worse than mid field. In a year or so time they will re-develop Moonee Valley and put lighting around it so it will be like Happy Valley in Hong Kong (If you ever go to HK - you gotta spend a night at Happy Valley) Flemington and Randwick have 400m+ straights and Flemington is quite a roomy track. That's why I think 1600m at Ascot will suit Winx just right. I think the 2000m of the Prince of Wales would be her limit at Ascot and who knows, if she ventures over she may just stick to mares only races because of her age? Cut n paste from the latest article from the Winx Camp. "Almost two months since her record-equalling third Cox Plate, champion Winx is back in Chris Waller’s stable to begin the build-up to her next challenge. Whether that includes a trip overseas or not, Winx has been prepared with the necessary inoculations" |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
Check out this link - Top 10 finishes of 2017 (Australia) - Winx is in two of them. Then watch the best finish of 2017 with Chautauqua proving that some horses are at their best at the same time every year. Sprinters aren't suppose to win from last in a G1 sprint  https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/gene ... 017/420979 |
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| Author: | Pommard [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: What do you mean by 'Stiffer tracks'? Generally speaking the tracks in the UK, Ireland and France are much stiffer and require a lot more stamina than those in America or Australia. There is lots of evidence of European horses who when racing abroad have excelled at distances further than they raced at at home. Take the Melbourne Cup for example; the vast majority of European horses that have won or placed in the race (whether European trained or sold to Australia) would not stay 2 miles in a horsebox over here. A lot of our trainers have made the mistake of sending over stayers and they have been too slow, our best ones have been classy 1m4f-1m6f horses. The same can be said for the Breeders Cup. Pebbles & Kalanisi in the Turf and Royal Academy & Last Tycoon in the mile were examples of horses winning over trips in excess of their best at home. Last Tycoon was the most notable as he was a 5f specialist who barely stayed 6f yet won the Breeders Cup Mile! For these reasons, if Winx was to come over I think they should definitely target the mile races, which also judging by the older horses staying in training in Europe next year will also be much the easier division. It would be great to see her but I think the cards would be stacked against her. |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
Strongest indication Winx will head to Royal Ascot. https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news ... ent/426438 |
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| Author: | SiriusChill [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
NPG319 wrote: Check out this link - Top 10 finishes of 2017 (Australia) - Winx is in two of them. Then watch the best finish of 2017 with Chautauqua proving that some horses are at their best at the same time every year. Sprinters aren't suppose to win from last in a G1 sprint https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/gene ... 017/420979 Perhaps the best finish I have ever seen from a horse and still my favorite Winx race - very early in the streak in the Theo Marks Stakes. The video is low quality but the performance isn't. Watch Winx only during the race. She encounters trouble and is dead last as they come out of the turn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuiYGHVQqTU |
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| Author: | NPG319 [ Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Horses Who Have Beaten Winx |
She's a mighty mare! Checked on the home turn - eased off heels down the straight....she knows exactly where the line is
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