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 Melbourne Cup 2018 tips 
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Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
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Location: South Australia
Post Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
The big race is not far away now so here's your chance to be a hero or zero by telling us your tip/s for the Melbourne Cup and why they will win (or why a horse can't win).

Once I get hold of a betting sheet and final field I will post them up here.
Weights for the Melb Cup https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/melb ... p-weights/

Right now my money is on Cliffs of Moher - probably one of the best performed English/Irish horses to ever line up in the Cup. Carrying 56.5kg is a fair whack but I think it has enough class to get the job done. He is now owned by Lloyd Williams and I believe the horse is still an entire so win lose or draw - expect him to hit up the breeding barn in Australia sometime soon.

Yucatan is still the favourite for the Cup and his win in the Herbert Power G2 was all class on the tight Caulfield track. Swooped the field a long way out and picked up the pace and ran away with an easy win - he will carry a handy weight - 54.5kg. The big question is can he run 3200m/16f?

As I mentioned in another post - beware of the two Japanese horses entered in the Cup.


Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:37 am
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:44 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Have been on Cross Counter ante-post for this since he bolted up at Goodwood in what was an excellent time figure. He ran a nice little prep race next time out when 2nd in the Great Voltigeur (Kew Gardens back in 3rd). Charlie Appleby said that he was happy with Cross Counter finishing 2nd that day because it should raise his profile and get him into the MC, which says to me they never intended for him to actually win that day. He has had a slightly set-back, but he's a 3yo going places and I hope he can run a big race.


Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:29 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Degaussed wrote:
Have been on Cross Counter ante-post for this since he bolted up at Goodwood in what was an excellent time figure. He ran a nice little prep race next time out when 2nd in the Great Voltigeur (Kew Gardens back in 3rd). Charlie Appleby said that he was happy with Cross Counter finishing 2nd that day because it should raise his profile and get him into the MC, which says to me they never intended for him to actually win that day. He has had a slightly set-back, but he's a 3yo going places and I hope he can run a big race.


He will be rated as a 4yo in Australia but that shouldn't be a problem.


Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:18 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
One Japanese horse, Tosen Basil will be scratched from the Cup.


Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:20 am
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Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
not the best of draws for Yucatan

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Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:06 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Here's the final field https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/melb ... o1oeNaJt-k


Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:12 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
not the best of draws for Yucatan

Will have to be ridden for luck.


Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:13 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
1. Magic Circle
2. Best Solution
3. Red Cardinal
4. Ventura Storm

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Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:48 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
So far I am leaning towards Magic Circle and the Japanese horse, Chestnut Coat.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:59 am
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Group 1 winner

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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Pro punter and ex bookie, Robbie Waterhouse stands to win a cool million if one of AOB's horses wins.
https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/gene ... ckZ9jfV0SM


Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:38 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
And Cross Counter gets a hefty $50,000 whack to win $500,000.
https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/gene ... WfkNT7f6Jw


Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:41 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Melbourne is expecting 5 to 15mm of rain on Cup day.


Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:56 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
first 6 finishing order

1 Rostropovich
2 Avilius
3 Yucatan
4 Finche
5 The Cliffsofmoher
6 Muntahaa

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Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:25 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
I'll have a quick go at a round up of all the European challengers. I have very little knowledge of Australian form so will leave that to others.
What I have noticed over the years that the 2 miles of the Melbourne Cup is nowhere near the stamina test that a 2 mile race in Britain, Ireland or France is. Almost all of the European horses that have done well (whether exports or European trained) have all been 1m4f - 1m6f horses. I suspect it is a combination of the pace of the race and the nature of the track.
I will work through in race card order:

Best Solution: On a great roll and obviously acclimatised well but is only a group 2 performer really (had to go to Germany for his group 1 success) and faces a huge task off top weight. Well drawn and may run well but an unlikely winner.

The Cliffsofmoher: Classy on his day but doesn't win enough and doesn't truly stay 1m4f so the least likely off Aidens.

Magic Circle: Much improved this year and strongly fancied but his best form is over 2m+ and may well get outpaced and have to come from to far back. I am doubtful but connections are very very bullish.

Muntahaa: Impressive and seemingly much improved last time out. Doesn't appear to be particularly well handicapped but could still be improving and definite each way chance (is quirky though).

Marmelo: Disappointing 9th last year but trainer has had his way this year and avoided a prep. May well improve and place but some other Europeans look better handicapped.

Yucatan: Hugely impressive last time and if that has not left a mark should go very close, unfortunately the draw has been unkind and may have to use a lot of petrol early. Yet to run over more than 1m4f but shapes like he will stay.

Nakeeta: Was very surprised he ran as well as he did last year and has not been in the same form since. Would be a huge surprise.

A Prince Of Arran: Has been in very good form down under but his his European form should not be good enough and running only 3 days ago is surely a negative. I can't see it.

Rostropovich: Not the most consistent but useful on his day. Disappointing behind Winx (should have been 3rd best) but subsequent news from the stable seems to suggest that it was very much a prep and not the main target. Draw not helpful but has a chance if he stays (a bit doubtful). Well handicapped on best form.

Cross Counter: A steady improver who showed good form last twice. Potentially the best handicapped horse in the field and been kept for this although the recent set back is a slight worry. My tip.

1: Cross Counter
2: Rostropovich
3: Muntahaa
4: Yucatan

I have been wrong before and will no doubt be wrong again!


Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:22 pm
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Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
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Location: South Australia
Post Re: Melbourne Cup 2018 tips
Another crazy bet on the Cup - $200k on Yucatan
https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/gene ... YEi0E3iqw0


Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:19 am
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