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Grand National
http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=18102		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Pommard [ Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Grand National
With the great race only a few days away what are peoples thoughts and tips.
I am yet to finalize my choices but I am a great believer that it was and still is a "stats" race and a lot of horses can be ruled out straight away. Interestingly the stats look really bad for several of the horses at the top of the betting especially the favorite.
Here's a few stats from the last 30 runnings, since 1988.

1) No 7 year old has won, you have to back to 1940 and they don't even get placed nowadays.
2) In the last 30 runnings only 4 winners carried more than 11 stone.
3) In the last 30 runnings only 6 winners had previously ran in the race and only 1 of them had previously been placed.
4) None of the last 30 winners had previously raced less than 10 times over fences, in fact I think this stat dates back to pre 1940! There are a lot that fall into this category this year and it appears that less experienced horses running in the race is becoming more common.

So the most likely winner is an experienced chaser carrying 11 stone or less and running in the race for the first time. That's whittled it down to about 25 :lol:
Author:  ghosty [ Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
What did I say early this week, Joe if he got in!!! Bloody sods has taken all the good prices on him, I know I should have backed him at 50-1 :cry: :cry:
Author:  Pommard [ Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
ghosty wrote:
What did I say early this week, Joe if he got in!!! Bloody sods has taken all the good prices on him, I know I should have backed him at 50-1 :cry: :cry:


Fails on the experience though Darren, despite a Scottish National win. Fits the criteria otherwise.

Lake View Lad now fails on the weight front.
Author:  ghosty [ Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
Pommard wrote:
ghosty wrote:
What did I say early this week, Joe if he got in!!! Bloody sods has taken all the good prices on him, I know I should have backed him at 50-1 :cry: :cry:


Fails on the experience though Darren, despite a Scottish National win. Fits the criteria otherwise.

Lake View Lad now fails on the weight front.

I think that's a bonus because u need a horse who is still improving and and I think he is.
Author:  Pricey [ Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
Rock The Kasbah for me, absolutely adore the horse anyway and seems to fit well on most trends bar the lack of a recent run, though does seem to go very well fresh. 10st 13 is ideal and won a good chase over 3m+ earlier this season, 20/1 is more than fair.
Author:  Pommard [ Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
Well using my stats as an elimination method I am left with the following horses:

Rathvinden
Dounikos
Rock The Kasbah
Magic Of Light
Jury Duty
A Toi Phil
Noble Endeavor
Monbeg Notorious
Tea For Two
Mall Dini
Ultragold
Singlfarmpayment
Walk In The Mill
Vintage Clouds
General Principle
Folsom Blue

Narrowed it down to 16 lol, though there are some dodgy jumpers and total non stayers in that list, just need to study them all.
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
My Top 5

1 Captain Redneard
2 General Principle
3 Singlfarmpayment
4 Tea For Two
5 Folsom Blue
Author:  Pommard [ Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
Well after dumping obvious non stayers and possible dodgy jumpers (although I'm not sure there is such a thing nowadays with the new fences) and disregarding a few I just don't like I am down to 6!!

Rathvinden (Probably should be favourite as he ticks more boxes than any other horse but is having his first ever run in a handicap which is unusual and may lack experience for the test)
Rock The Kasbah (Great jumper and would be fantastic for Richard Johnson but worried about the trip)
Tea For Two (My pick the moment the weights came out. Loves flat tracks but stamina a worry and the rain hasn't helped)
Singlfarmpayment (Jumps well and well handicapped but quirky is an understatement and easy to see him throwing the towel in)
Walk In The Mill (Jumps well and will probably stay but may not be classy enough for this)
General Principle (Consistency not his strong point but his best form gives him a big chance)

Even with the ones I fancy I can find plenty of reasons why they won't win but it's worth noting that the average price of the last 10 winners is 33/1 so it is well worth ignoring the market and looking around.

Two quick notes on the racing today:

I virtually never bet ante-post but straight after Cheltenham I was going to place a bet on Lostintranslation for next years Gold Cup! It looks like that boat has sailed now.

After Min's wide margin destruction of Prolitilogue and Waiting Patiently surely the official handicapper will now rate him the best chaser in training and put him above Cyrname.
And yes my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
Author:  Taunton [ Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
My picks. Am really looking forward to the race. It is one of the highlights of the season.

1: Pleasant Company
2: Vintage Clouds
3: Tiger Roll
4: Tea For Two
5: One For Arthur

And I am rooting for One For Arthur, Go Scotland!! :D
Author:  Lordedaw [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
1. Vintage Clouds
2. Jury Duty
3. Rathvinden.

Can't really split the first two though
Author:  Kevcon [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
My shortlist of 6 in no particular order

Lake View Lad
Noble Endeavor
Walk In The Mill
Pleasant Company
Joe Farrell
Rock The Kasbah
Author:  GS63 [ Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
National history made yesterday, won with some ease too, sadly I was on Rathvinden! Hat trick for Tiger Roll next year anyone?
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Grand National
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
My Top 5

1 Captain Redneard
2 General Principle
3 Singlfarmpayment
4 Tea For Two
5 Folsom Blue


Not even a place :roll: :lol: :lol:

but never been more delighted to see a horse win than Tiger Roll
I backed him last year but thought he was unbackable this year
how wrong I was what a little legend
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