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 Australian Racing 
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Post Australian Racing
It's almost Spring here, which means the Spring Carnival is just around the corner, starting in Sydney in late August, and concluding in Melbourne in mid November, springtime in Australia features some of the most prestigious races in Australia.

So I thought I'd start a thread to discuss Australian racing.


Fri Aug 06, 2010 7:17 am
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There are three Group 3 races this weekend, two at Randwick (in Sydney) and one at Flemington (in Melbourne).

Randwick - Race 5 Missile Stakes - 1200m (6f)
A race with a few contenders and a few just getting a run under their belt.
Danleigh and Sniper's Bullet are proven first up performers and both have Group 1 wins to their name, however both prefer the mile trip. Love Conquers All has got the form coming into the race, with two impressive wins with the last win coming in a listed race, beating Hay List who then demolished a field in Brisbane a couple of weeks later. Cannonball is a well travelled sprinter from the US who has failed to make an impression in his past two starts in Australia, however I believe he has switched trainers and could be a big improver. Of the others, only Prince Braeman and Spirited One have any form over the distance, but both are well up in class.

My pick is an each way on Sniper's Bullet, should be able to get about 9/1.


Randwick - Race 6 - San Domenico Stakes (3 year olds) 1000m (5f)

Horses aged only last Sunday over here, so the majority of these had impressive two year olds seasons. Decision Time is the pick of the bunch, and has finished no worse than 2nd in it's 6 starts, beating most of these over the past 6 months. Spirit of Boom is one of the few it hasn't met yet, who looks to be quite a promising horse and it will be interesting to see how it does mainly for an indication of how Pressday (who beat it last start) might fare later on in the Spring.

Flemington - Race 6 - Aurie's Star Handicap 1200m (6f)

Elusive Touch and Royal Ida carry strong form into the race, and it will most probably come down to one of these two, and I'd give the edge to Elusive Touch due to the lower weight. Headway the classiest sprinter of the lot, may be scratched due to a heavy track, so be wary of that one. Of the others, Grand Duels and Beltrois both make strong cases but Beltrois is first up and hasn't won first up in four attempts, and Grand Duels has been beaten by Elusive Touch in his last two starts. The Handsome One is a lightly raced 3yo who makes some claims but will probably find the older horses too strong.

My tip - Elusive Touch win at about 5/1


Fri Aug 06, 2010 7:38 am
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Great idea, stick with Giddy, looking forward to it as I do like to watch the racing down under.

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Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:12 am
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Will do, from the weekends races, Love Conquers All was a very impressive winner. Danleigh and Sniper's Bullet both ran on well and will definitely benefit from a step up in trip, running 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Obsequious pulled off an upset victory, dispatching the more highly fancied Solar Charged and Decision Time easily, connections think they'll keep it to the shorter races instead of aiming it at the more prestigious 3yo Guineas and Derby's upcoming.

Elusive Touch narrowly held off the fast finishing Leica Larrikin, who will definitely be one to watch as it steps up in distance. Beltrois finished 3rd but was quite a way off the front two.


Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:51 am
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Big weekend this weekend with 4 listed and 4 group races spread across three tracks.

Starting at Morphetville (Adelaide) with the Group 3 Spring Gully Stakes (Race 6) over 1200m (6f)
Victorian and South Australian Derby winner Rebel Raider makes a come back after injury cut short his 4 year old campaign, trip looks to be too short and more for getting him back out on the track which leaves me looking to more experienced sprinters. Of those Periduki and Likeable Will have the form coming in, but Xaieta has also run well in the last few months, and looks to offer a bit more value than the other two.

My tip: Xaieta E/W but only if it's at better than 9/1.

In Sydney we have two feature races, the Run to the Rose (1300m 6.5f 3yo G3) and the Starlight Stakes (1100m 5.5f Listed Race)

The Run to the Rose is the lead up race to the first Group 1 of the season the Golden Rose. It sees three unbeaten 2yo resuming, in Masquerader, Squamosa & Classics, and the well favoured Sasa who was placed at Group 1 level as a 2yo. Sasa will probably be looking for further and get done for speed by some of these, with Masquerader and Squamosa looking the pick of the bunch. Early markets have installed Squamosa as favourite, however if the track dries out a touch (and he isn't withdrawn) the I can't see past Masquerader.

The Starlight Stakes field is in danger of being decimated by scratchings due to the heavy track. At this stage Winter King looks to run favourite and with good reason, however the field may end up only having 4 horses in it so it may be best to leave this one out.

I'll try and preview the Caulfield races later tonight.


Fri Aug 13, 2010 1:51 am
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Don't have time to do a proper write up but my tips for tomorrow at Caulfield.

Vain Stakes (Listed Race 3yo c&g 1100m)
Star Witness - Win
Brietling - E/W

Quezette Stakes (Listed Race 3yo f 1100m)
Crystal Lily - Win

65th Anniversary End of WWII Stakes (Listed Race 1200m)
Ab Almahlik - E/W

Liston Stakes (Group 2 1400m)
Shoot Out - Win
Carrara - Place

Cockram Stakes (Group 3 1200m)
Big Spirit - E/W


Fri Aug 13, 2010 5:58 pm
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Alright just wondering if you can enlighten me on the whereabouts of denman?? apparently darley australia were sending denman over here to challenge starspangledbanner?? would like to see the challenge actually because I saw denman win at rosehill quite comfortably last time I was down under and looked a decent horse!!!! whatever happened to that manhattan rain as well as that was talked about as being something special? love seeing the aussie horses run over here especially as the last two times i've been down under I saw haradasun run at caulfield then backed it when it won over here then watched starspangledbanner win at caulfield before it won over here, hoping denman can do the 3 timer haha....rather lucky as my grandparents live in caulfield and my dad lived there for 10 years and my auntie and uncle live in newport which is only a short train ride from flemington so hoping to get out there for the race that stops a nation soon!!! good to see the updates from down under as I'm always watching at the races at 4 in the morn when I can't sleep!!! good on ya giddy!!


Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:31 pm
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They failed to get Denman ready for the July Cup so retired him to stud. All very Godolphin like.
Manhattan Rain started to regress and Giddy might correct me on this, but I think he started to develop a tendency to fall out the gates which didn't help so he was also retired to stand at Arrowfield stud.

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Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:35 pm
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Shows how far I'm behind haha it was a year ago to the date I was last out there!!! thanks DB cheers for the info on that frankel as well will be watching it as was very impressive didn't back it though as the price was too short!!


Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:40 pm
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Your welcome. Bit more info about the duo...

Denman - http://www.racingpost.com/news/bloodsto ... stocknews/

Manhattan Rain - http://www.racingpost.com/news/bloodsto ... ud/687148/

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Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:59 pm
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Manhattan Rain was always very promising but from an early age became very colt-ish, tending to get worked up or frisky before a race, always had an eye for the lady horses if you will, probably a good thing he was sent to stud, never actually did much, was always there or thereabouts but hardly a winner.

Anyway from the weekend I had a touch of second-itis I think. Shoot Out looked very impressive and is the horse to beat over the spring already. Masquerader had a very nice run and looks like it will relish a rematch with Squamosa over more even weights and a slightly longer distance.


Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:59 pm
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First Group 1 of the new year tomorrow and it looks to be a cracker, the 3yo Golden Rose over 1400m.

I'll go through the full field.

1. Squamosa - 11/1 - Unbeaten including first-up last start this prep, only beat Masquerader by half a length though with a 3kg weight advantage and was losing ground the last 100 metres.

2. Decision Time - 20/1 - Unimpressive in two starts this prep. Finishing more than 3L off the leader on both occasions, hard to see it improving that much this start especially with the wide barrier.

3. Hinchinbrook - 8/1 - First start as a 3yo sees it takes on its 6th different jockey in its 6th start. Would not surprise with a strong performance and with Corey Brown on board could go well.

4. Masquerader - 7/2 - Unlucky last start where it came from the rear of the field and only just missed out against Squamosa, based on the strength of that performance it will go close but it currently doesn't have the value.

5. Toorak Toff - 9/2 - Won impressively first up but face a 300m jump in distance, and a much stronger field. Has the form coming into the race but there are question marks over his ability to get the trip.

6. Kudalkari - 25/1 - Beaten 20L by Squamosa last start but that can be forgiven. Unlikely to see it improve that much though, and stable is out of form currently.

7. Run for Levi - 100/1 - Price says it all. Way out of its class and a place hope at best.

8. Top Drop - 66/1 - Not disgraced last start, beating Decision Time home and only 2.5L off the winner, but is a clear second choice in the stable behind Hinchinbrook.

9. Ilovethiscity - 25/1 - Goes from a maiden to a Group 1, looks out of depth. Came up against a few of these in his 2yo career and was easily taken care of.

10. Praecido - 16/1 - One win, no placings from eight starts, definitely too short for this, valiant effort behind Squamosa last start and breeding suggests he will run to the line, solid jockey booked but too short at this point, would prefer at least 33/1.

11. Crystal Lily - 7/2 - Favourite if only just, was run down over the closing stages last start by Panipique and there are doubts about her going the 1400m with her only starts over 1000m-1200m so far, can win but too many queries.

12. Chance Bye - 16/1 - Found the line well last start, seems to have overcame the leg problems that hit her towards the end of her 2yo season, is well priced and some queries over the distance but has drawn well.

13. Panipique - 9/1 - Impressive first up victory last start and has the breeding to go further, a strong showing in this would see her as one of the favourites for the Guineas, stable is running hot as well.

14. Sasa - 25/1 - Disappointing last start and is drawn out in the carpark, which will make it difficult to get in a good position. Barrier takes out small hopes there were.

15. Gybe - 100/1 - Lightly raced filly, making her 3rd start and first against any of these. Won a Listed Race as an 80/1 shot at her very first start beating some good filly's but was a disappointing 3rd in a handicap last start, would prefer to see her run in a slightly less competitive race before taking this on.

Selections.
1. Masquerader
2. Panipique
3. Squamosa

Other fancies of the day include...
Race 5 Sydney, Scouting Wide should improve on its last two starts and take home the win, and in Race 4 it is hard to see anything stopping Winter King from making it three in a row.

In Melbourne, Race 4 Breitling will look to make amends for a disappointing last start but Yosei at E/W looks the value bet of the day. Race 5 sees Here De Angels back from a spell and will look to make amends for its last start 2nd by a head to Starspangledbanner. The big guns all go off in Race 6, with a who's who of Australian racing facing off, Shoot Out, So You Think, Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Faint Perfume all clash. $19.8million dollars won in total by the field of 14 among their careers. Shoot Out has the form, but Tracy will start sentimental favourite. Interesting to note the "cups king" Bart Cummings has five runners in the race, with So You Think having the best shot.

My bet of the day is Walpersdorf in Brisbane race 2, was unlucky not to win last start and should win tomorrow with 5/1 being a good price.


Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:26 am
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I quite like Hinchinbrook. Obviously the stable virus stuff is worrying, I'm not too fussed by the frequent jockey changes as over 1400m and the draw he has tactics shouldn't play too big a part.


Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:36 pm
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Price on Hinchinbrook is appealing but issues surrounding his prep for this race are off-putting so I'm eyeing up Toorak Toof on his recent figures.

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Fri Aug 27, 2010 6:13 pm
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Has it run yet? don't know nothing about australian racing, over ever seen one melborne cup but I enjoyed the read.


Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:17 am
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