I agree there is always a hype horse nearly every year at Ballydoyle but lets be honest, Starspangledbanner, Rip Van Winkle, Fame And Glory and St Nicholas Abbey all turned out to be group 1 animals on their day, and to be fair to Fame And Glory he was never really a big hype horse in comparison with the others mentioned.

It looks a very weak Guineas to me, Most Improved lame before the Craven, Born To Sea's form looks weak now with Nephrite, Aaraas and Ishvana being so close in what was a strongly run race although apparently he wasnt 100% on the day and its possible he could have improved a ton since then à la Sea The Stars. Trumpet Major was quite impressive in the Craven but that looks some way off a Guineas winning performance and I couldnt back him in a million years. Top Offer was an impressive winner of a decent maiden and he is obviously open to huge improvement but they wanted to get a run into him, probably more for experience than anything else and I just didnt get an impression anything like the one I got from Camelot last year.

I think Obrien has waited to see what is about this season before deciding what to do with Camelot and looking at the recent price changes from Ladbrokes, you have to think they have decided to go for the Guineas. I agree that on pure form his price is short, but its short for a reason, everyone can see that this horse is a bit special and there dosent appear to be anything remotely close to him in terms of natural ability in the race. It was the same story in the Racing Post last season, "too short", "won an egg and spoon maiden" "another obrien hype horse", there is just something about this horse, you seen it when he won his maiden and he backed it up in the Racing Post.

Would I back him at 6/4 to beat a Group 1 miler? No. Would I back him at 6/4 to beat this lot? Yes

Top Offer and Born To Sea are the only two potential Group 1 horses against him but they havent shown me the natural class that Camelot has so I will gladly back him at odds against on the day. Wether there is value in the price is irrelevant when your talking about top horses, im not going to back a horse I believe to be inferior because of a price. Value has its place in handicaps and is only an opinon anyway, its not an exact science.

You never know what will come out though for example makfi. Talk was all about canford cliffs dick Turpin st nic and he came out of the pack. You can't say his performance from last season warrants what appears to be an accepted victory. Born to sea was lame in killavullan and nephrite couldn't stay on the ground so is irrelevant. He may have improved again. Trumpet major would be my pick, he has shown he has trained on from 2 to 3 and same could be said of Caspar netscher I like him as well though maybe it is too far.

What does Aidan have though, that makes that such a great pointer Keith?
Nephrite is clearly a sprinter, and yet to prove he's anywhere near Group 1 class, while Power needs a straight the length of a heathrow runway to find top gear and the rest are fillies. Even considering the older horses, working with Slow & Snory and St Nic may be a good guide to the horses chances in the Derby, but as far as the Guineas are concerned, you might as well pair him with Mon Mome. The only horse that would be a good work partner for him, with the Guineas in mind, would be Excelebration unless I'm missing someone, so I would be expecting him to stand out.
Top Offer has been dishing it out to Cityscape on the gallops, but still that doesn't entitle him to be 6/1, nor does it guarantee that he'll stand up and be counted a week on Saturday.

The other issue worth considering is Camelot is a son of Montjeu. Now while there may be nothing to that, he has yet to really come off the bridle, yet to really be asked a question, yet to really have his resolve tested. Totally different I know, but anyone remember these questions being pointed at Cue Card? With just over a furlong to go, if he has two lengths to make up on Top Offer, Abtaal, Most Improved, Trumpet Major or whoever else you want and Joseph starts to pop him the question, who can be sure what he'll do?? Nobody can, because until he does, it's a big unknown, yet I say again....6/4!!

On what we saw last year, and in hindsight, if Frankel had turned up in the Derby and been a 6/4 shot, would anybody back him? I wouldn't!! He'd be the superior horse, but that wouldn't be the be-all and end-all, that wouldn't guarantee victory because there are other factors to consider, factors just as important if not more so. There may not turn out to be any proper Group 1 milers in this renewal of the Guineas, who knows, but that doesn't make it a done deal. A lack of value is one thing, a ridiculous price that has no correlation to the horses true chances is something completely different. Just take a look at the Windsor 6:25....
He may well be very good, awesome even, and I'm not ruling him out for sure, but that price is a joke and just bear in mind that last season, everyone was justifying the ridiculous prices on So You Think and look how that turned out. For every horse like Camelot that turns out to be as good as is quoted, there are at least ten false dawns and many burnt fingers to go with them!!

Yes you hear about the classic early morning horse, which ends up leaving it all on the gallops and not performing on the tack, and you have horses that are the opposite, e.g night nurse who was apparently horrendous on the gallops but look at him in the races. Training only tells you so much. It is the race and race environment where the truth is found. What will he find off he bridle? Perhaps nothing, look at grands crus, cruises on the bridle, asked the question stays pretty much on the same pace.

Its the times and "data" he produces on the gallops is what they are so excited about. It was the same last year before the Racing Post. I knew Nephite wouldn't be going to HQ when I had the bet, so that doesn't change anything. Of the others at home, Maybe is the only one to show real class at a mile but they weren't so bothered about backing her now. They would say that Power would never beat Camelot, but obviously second strings have been known to be the better horse on the racecourse many times.


The question I asked was, what is his trip? The answer I got was they really, really think he is a top class 1m4 horse but has so much speed and class the 2000 should not be a problem. Given the problems surrounding Most Improved and Top Offer not having a prep run, which I think was very important, Im not sure the opposition is up to much? If he lines up I think Tabor and Co. will just keep having it on and then I'll probably trade some of mine out.

Why is it more important for Top Offer and Most Improved to have a prep run as opposed to Camelot who is not having one??

His RP Trophy is not more impressive than St Nics so there is no way I can back him on the basis of O'Brien being amazed at his 'data' because I have heard that too much. This horse is no George Washington and don't think I have ever seen O'Brien speak about another horse with the same excitement as he did Gorgeous George. For all that, I hope Camelot wins the Guineas at a hack canter because I would love to see another superstar. What would be the plan post derby?? Arc or a shot at the triple crown?

Yes but the times of st nic and SYT were 'phenomenal' as well and as for them saying he has class and speed, they're not exactly going to tell you that its crap, as slow as anything and runs like a donkey on three legs are they? Of course they'll say he's a classy horse!

I dont get info from the yard. This has come via someone else who from time to time has to put on for those involved. Personally I haven't had all the hype before and whether or not the horses wins, I should be in a great position. I think Aiden has actually been pretty coy with Camelot.

Top Offer has had one run in a maiden where he was barely asked a question. I think another outing to gain more experience and maybe asked more serious questions would have helped him? A prep run for Most Improved wasn't nearly as important but still feel it would've been beneficial.

I agree with Top Offer there actually, I would not touch him at 6s!!

I am a sucker for a favourite so i will probably end up losing my house on Camelot - i just watched his RP trophy win and the way he quickened up was eye catching but it is too much of an unknown as to what he has actually beaten

The horse I am most looking forward to this year and will have a huge bet on is Black Caviar - this mare will walk all over our sprinters

Im on Top Offer at 16's, but only small and it was on the advice from db. We know the class is there but it surely looks a tall order from that one maiden run? Its not impossible and Im sure it was right to side step the heavy ground on Saturday this close to the big one, but I still feel he will be a much better horse after the Guineas.


Do I think Camelot is value? No. Im not even a good judge on the flat but I get a lot of help and took 9/4 with Hills and also traded on BF. I have no doubts what im told is true so am sure he will go off shorter. But is it a good way to make money? Probably not now at the current prices.

The form is out the window in this race, the prices on the main runners are all based on visual impression and potential, you are never going to get a fair price on the next "Ballydoyle Superstar" in terms of what they have achieved formwise, so you either take what you get, back something else or leave it out.

I like backing class horses and I think Camelot is a class horse, for me he is the best horse in the race so I wont let the price put me off, if someone else does not rate Camelot then its very easy for them to take him on at the price. You either fancy him or you dont and there is no point us arguing over whether the price is right or not, hes that price because the bookies wont lay anything bigger.

The problem is, there is no way of knowing a horses true chance in a race like this, and while I think around 5/2 would be a more reasonable price on what we have seen, I would not be keen to lay that myself and I can totally understand why bookies are going 6/4.

It's an extremely good point about the breeding. Montjeu's are extremely quirky and you never know what you're going to get when you pull the trigger.

Looks an awful race though. If he doesn't win then god help him.

I suppose the bookies are also looking at the rest of the field and thinking something along the lines of what Rich has said i.e. if he is supposed to be a class animal, then he should blow a field like that apart

I think the Fillies are better than the Colts this year over a mile