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Camelot 2000 guineas chances
http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=6162		 Page 1 of 9
Author:  Ubar02 [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Camelot 2000 guineas chances
If Camelot runs in the guineas what is your verdict on the outcome. Is he head and shoulders above the ret and a complete annihilation is in store, or is he overrated and something else is going to come out of the pack?
Author:  SuperCat [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
I'd like him to win for his sire and to have something really exciting to look forward to in the colts department. There are a few fillies I like but I haven't seen a colt race yet this year who really makes me look forward to the season. However with Aiden's recent record in the race I'm not sure I'd be too confident.

P.s. was it really necessary to start two threads about the same thing?!
Author:  Ubar02 [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
Possibly not, but started one looking to see whether people thought he would start, and then suddenly decided a better one to have would be one for speculation and build up to the race. Probably a bit excessive though. I was quite excited when I found out what Aiden said. To be honest never really been a big ballydoyle fan, sometimes seems like he throws a load of horses at one race in the hope of one managing to win, however if he is truly the 'next big thing' (but maybe not as big as frankel) then I would like to see him run well. Would be nice for montjeu but ultimately is not his final crop and he has done enough already to be seen as one of the all time great sires.
Author:  GS63 [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
Quote:
Supercat wrote:- P.s. was it really necessary to start two threads about the same thing?!




I spotted that too- I think Ubar's double posting is an attempt to get to 1,000 posts and Group 1 status Supercat!

Nice try Ubar! :)
Author:  Ubar02 [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
:lol: Well what can I say? I have a lot of ground to make up! :lol:
Author:  Ubar02 [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
You can forget about the other one now- have told people to come here instead. Now any thoughts on the original point of this post- camelot's chances in the guineas?
Author:  hackett [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
Didnt vote on any because dont think he will win but he might finish close.
Author:  anubisrich [ Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
I think that Top Offer and Most Improved will be more forward than him, also think that Trumpet Major has some of the Dick Turpin about him although I think he has a decent chance.

Would I back him at 7/1? Probably. At evens? No chance.
Author:  keithbeaky [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
Im on big at 9/4 and been told he could be the best they've ever had.
Author:  HurricaneRun [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
I have heard that about a few Ballydoyle horses - a number of them end up being a flop, others end up as superstars, my favourite of which is George Washington.

Anyway, am I prepared to bet at even money on this guy being the real thing?? Maybe haha, as I see the classic bunch this year as being very weak looking so far and I am very happy with the form of the O'Brien stable. I just hope we start seeing some good 3yo's in weeks to come. I think I may just watch the guineas and enjoy what I see - I would love to be on this horse at 9/4 Keith but I don't want to risk a lot of money betting him at evens
Author:  Dancing Brave [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 5:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Reply
O'Brien is a salesman as well as a trainer, and a very good one at that, because every damn season he peddles the same old nonsense, and every damn season, half the world of racing buy into it!!
Starspangledbanner was meant to be faster than the speed of light, until Markab walked past him smoking a cigar in the Sprint Cup.
So You Think was an equine god, the greatest horse ever to grace a race course, who has now come up short more times than Lee Westwood on an Augusta green.
Rip Van Winkle....Slow & Snory....St Nicholas Abbey....and that is just the last few seasons, the list goes on, and on, and on....

I'm not adverse to Camelot being good enough to win a Guineas, and this year is shaping up to be a less than impressive renewal, but if you took away all the hype that surrounds the horse, what price would he actually be given he has achieved not a lot, against not a lot?
Certainly not 6/4
No matter how highly you regard the horse he is up against it, simply because he is a middle-distance horse with the Derby as his ultimate goal, taking on milers with the 2000 Guineas as their ultimate goal. He'll be going a stride quicker than he has ever gone before, in a race that won't be nursed around him, with an inexperienced pilot whose judgement leaves a lot to be desired against fitter, more prepared opposition. There is a reason the Racing Post trophy is not a great pointer to the 2000 Guineas, and while let's say for arguments sake Camelot may well have the most overall ability of those who line up in a fortnight, that still may not be enough. At this distance, something in that field will have better pure speed than him, something in that field will have better tactical speed than him, and something in that field will have better acceleration than him; He just doesn't have nearly enough in his favour to be priced up 6/4!!
But as I've said before, it's not just Camelot that has no substance to his price, the first three in the betting are all shocking prices now. If I hadn't already jumped in early, I would probably be looking hard at Abtaal, in the hope that the poor old horse isn't handicapped out of contention by having Soumillon in the saddle again. He's just about the only horse left that has enough form in the book to think he could be good enough, yet remains a backable price.
Author:  HurricaneRun [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
I think DB's assessment is pretty much spot on

I seem to remember George Washington went off at odds similar to what camelot is priced up at - when you compare what each of them offered going into the Guineas it is amazing that Camelot is as short. Hence the reason, I suppose, that George was one of my highest single stakes since getting into racing whereas Camelot is one I will just be watching with a few quid ew on something at nicer odds.
Author:  keithbeaky [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
The info is very reliable. From his homework he is in a different league to everything else in the yard, including most older horses. The kid will be on and I can see him going off odds-on.
Author:  Ubar02 [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
As was st nic two years ago. And one cool cat. And hold that tiger. And giants causeway. All theses have been hype up by o brien in the past. Quite frankly, evens is ridiculous off the back of two runs at two, both unimformative, do we actually really know what was behind him at Doncaster. Will be going myself to see if he is the real deal but would not be the first coolmore horse to be overhyped. I recall SYT was something else at home before prince of Wales and Dubai world cup. Look what happened there.
Author:  HurricaneRun [ Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Camelot 2000 guineas chances
I actually think St Nicholas Abbey is a very good horse and it should not have run in the guineas. That run aside he has some very good form in the book. Not a super super superstar but a very good animal all the same and it is a big shame he was not able to run in the Derby as he would have run a very big race (he showed in the coronation cup that Epsom was to his liking)
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