A week away till the big day then.

Orfevre - My main antepost foray (also backed Last Train early in the season) and been a big fan of this horse since way back last season. Had a bit of a blip to start the year and still no clue why they tried to run him over two miles, but come back to himself now, and did all he needed to do in the trial. He's not straightforward and like Sarafina last year, if I hadn't got involved early, I wouldn't be getting involved now given current odds, but I do think he is a serious class act when in a co-operative mood.

Danedream - Wasn't convinced by her Arc win last year, more so when Buena Vista spanked her after and she was atrocious on her seasonal debut, but then won the King George to my surprise. I'm really not sure what to make of her; she made hard work of the trial, whatever connections say, but it was a trial and nothing more. She is the defending champion, thus I respect her, but last year was unrelenting, this year doesn't have the horses entered to suggest it'll be run anything like the same and I just couldn't be with her now, having opposed her in every race she has contested since winning this in 2011.

Nathaniel - I think he is a bit underrated, but I have the same issue with him as I do with Danedream. He's a galloper, best suited by a strong upheld gallop and I can't see him getting that this year, thus other horses seem better equipped than he.

Camelot - Should have been spelt OTT
I could see the argument that he should take his chance in probably the only race he could he redeem his reputation in, but at the same time, make no mistake about the fact he had a hard race in the St Leger and possibly in the Irish Derby. Many horses don't come back from an Arc nightmare and once you lose a Montjeu mentally, you are not getting them back; Masked Marvel a prime example on both counts, so this is far from a no lose situation. If they are harbouring any thoughts of bringing him back next season, he won't run in this, but putting that to one side, he has yet to prove he is good enough to contest an Arc, let alone win one, hasn't been trained for it and for an afterthought, should be 16/1, not 6/1.

Shareta - I think the ground cost The Fugue the Yorkshire Oaks, just as much as Shareta actually won it, and I would actually consider it a major upset if she won an Arc. She was visually the most impressive winner on trial day, but I actually rated her performance the worst of three. She had the race run to suit, was perfectly positioned and benefited from the fact that those on behind spent the entire time tripping over each other. She is a solid filly in a fillies race, but despite finishing second last year, I have to take the view this is beyond her.

Saonois - Regarded as a bit of a fluke French Derby winner, but showed on trials day that may not have been the case, and form in the book is stronger than any other 3yo here. I liked his performance in the Prix Niel, even though the race turned into a sprint, and if they dawdle around next weekend, there is not a question in my mind that this horse will kill them; it won't even be a contest. Chances are they won't walk around though, there are two many gallopers in here for that to happen, so while as I've said before, I don't expect this to be a overly strong run renewal, Saonois still has to prove he can deliver similar performances in a soundly run race. I think he can, I think he will get away with the distance because it won't be a gruelling test and I'm glad to hear Andre Fabre talk up this horse, as well as the Orfevre camp pinpoint him as the biggest danger, because he is my idea of the winner. If he was trained by a bigger name, he would be 6/1, not 10/1. He's not however, and I'm guessing few know much about the trainer, or for that matter, the young rider who last season was still an apprentice. The Saonois story is a cracking one, one of a cheap and unfashionable horse who had to drop into claiming company to break his maiden, and was kept on the go throughout the French off-season; one of a horse that rose up to win the French Derby and now bids to follow up with an Arc. Connections opted not to sell when a big offer came in and I hope they reap the rewards for such a bold decision. I think they will!!

Masterstroke - Alongside Preferential, Navarre and Last Train, he was in my mini-list of French horses to follow this season, so pleased to see him make up into an Arc candidate. Whether it is a bit by default however, is a question he will need to answer on the day. He produced a couple of expensive failures early, but has got it together a bit now and did well to reel in Gatewood last time. That form obviously leaves him with a mountain to climb and his price is solely based on the Andre Fabre factor; he should be in the region of 33/1, not 12/1 if you take that out of the equation.

St Nic - My beloved St Nic where do I start??
Arguably, he should be shorter in comparison to Danedream and Nathaniel given his King George run, and he did run well in this last year, despite an oddly aggressive ride. Strangely enough, I'd much prefer him to Camelot, Masterstroke and Shareta and the right-handed stat wouldn't worry me at all. But before you all fall off your seats, I just don't think he is quite good enough to win, and given the way I think the race will play out, I don't think he will be quick enough either.
(Can see him making the frame, but if I commit to that, I'm going to have to go and take a shower!!)

Meandre - Ran well last year having finished second in a trial and may do the same again, but he lacks tactical speed and ultimately isn't nearly good enough to win an Arc.

Sea Moon - Any rain will help, but needs things run to suit and despite a poor ride, got shown up in the King George as shy at this level. Hard to find a reason for him to reverse form with three in front, that re-oppose, barring soft ground and a good draw and think Canada is the better option for him.

Galikova - She makes Steeler look like Zafonic; Might win a World Hudle, certainly not an Arc!!

Kesampour - Twice brushed aside by Saonois, no reason he'll turn that form around.

Summary

Shareta would be a disappointing winner, while Camelot and Mastership are both poor, poor value on all known form, and I can't consider either a serious candidate as such. Saonois is the three-year-old to concentrate on form-wise, Orfevre the big danger, and Nathaniel would be my frame filler.

Update:

Shame that the race has cut up a bit in the last week, but Great Heavens has joined the party, and my initial impression is why bother?? Not only has she not been targeted at the Arc, she hasn't even been trained for it. Given she was being readied for a goal still two weeks away, just four days ago, there is zero chance she is turning up here in peak condition and even in peak condition, her chances would have been slim to non-existent. On form lines she falls behind Shareta, yet they are the same price in the market. More madness!!

The draw today was pleasing with regards my duo, as having watched an awful lot of racing at Longchamp over time, the one thing I didn't want was a middled draw. Neither got it, and both actually ended up where I would have wanted to see them. That may be odd, given Orfevre drew wide, but this is not a horse you want tucked away, no matter how well Christophe Soumillon rides this track, when in the mood. Being to the outside, with room to make your move is what this horse knows best , it's where I would have wanted to see him racing and now, it is hopefully where he will be racing. That is not to say eighteen of eighteen is ideal, obviously a few stalls inside would have been better, but it doesn't hugely matter how high he is, as it solely comes down to Soumillon being able get into a position early. If he can, I think anyone who has watched Orfevre compete in Japan won't be bothered one bit by the idea of him racing two or three wide, nor with the ground on the soft side. Some may disagree with that analysis, many do by the fact his prices has drifted today, but even then if I were to perceive stall eighteen as the negative others do, I'd rather have a horse with proven ability and a bad draw than a horse with unproven ability and a good draw!!
The soft side is however a bit of a concern for Saonois now, not because he won't handle it, but because it dents his main asset and tests his stamina a bit more than ideal. He too has been drawn where I would have preferred however, tucked down towards the rail. This horse has tactical speed to navigate trouble, but also seems happiest and most effective when covered up and having to split horses. He'll get that with this draw and while like everything else, he'll need luck, I still think this horse has been largely overrated in many quarters and is my idea of the most likely winner.

The one that I might regret overlooking has to be Sea Moon. If more rain falls and the ground becomes slow and dead, he'll be right at home. I'm struggling to get past that King George run, but with two of the three initially re-opposing now out, I'm wondering if I have counted him out too soon. Out of a dam by an Arc winner, I have this nagging feeling I should have kept the faith and if he looks well on the day, I may have to step in and increase to three against the field; I would be kicking myself more if he won and I didn't have him on side, than if he didn't and I did. He is not great value in the UK market now, at around 10/1, but I suspect I'll be getting something more reasonable about him on the PMU come the day.

Good news with regards to Camelot- no decision made yet on his participation but if he does run JOB will not be on board.

no chance of him making the weight word is seamie will ride camelot if he goes

first snow fairy now danedream
field size might be single figures at this rate

Im backing Camelot if he runs, already on Orfevre at 16s so got him covered, take Encke out the Leger and Camelot would be 6/4 just now. Danedream was a big danger, never backed Nathaniel and wont be starting now, Shareta will probably run a big race but be disappointing if she won, cant for one second believe that Sanois is a better horse than Camelot although he has had a better preparation for the race. I know Obrien can go over the top but not to the extent that he is going to embarrass himself by saying an average horse is the best hes ever trained, I really dont think a bunch of billionaires are too concerned about trying to squeeze maximum value out of a horse who has already won a Guineas and Derby, it absurd. Dont forget, when you are passionate about something its easy to go over the top, they genuinely believe that Camelot is one of the best they have had, I dont doubt that for a minute, whether they are right I dont know, its hard to argue that he is better than the likes of Galileo and co but he must be doing something at home for Obrien to say hes the best weve had by far. It was a different scenario with So You Think, they paid stupid money for him, talking up good horses is standard practice but dont tell me hes saying that about just an average horse. Might be tailed off but thats the way it goes, not the first or last I will back that will be tailed off but if the same horse who won the Derby turns up, I cant see him being far away in what is starting to look like a weak Arc, I still fancy Orfevre though.

Ladbrokes clear top price suggests that he probably wont run so all the above might not matter!!

‎18 lefts in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at First Forfeit Stage.

Ballydoyle have 5 runners left in
Camelot, Ernest Hemingway, Imperial Monarch, Robin Hood and St Nicholas Abbey.

They have withdrawn - Await The Dawn, Fame And Glory, Memphis Tennessee, Treasure Beach, Windsor Palace, Wrote also the fillies Maybe, Twirl and Wading.

DANEDREAM WILL MISS THE ARC

Danedream(Lomitas) looks highly likely to miss out on defending her title
in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Gr1).
The mare worked well on Monday morning and is in great form. However another horse trained by a
different trainer in Cologne has tested positive for EIA (also known as swamp fever), meaning that all of the horses in the training centre must be placed in quarantine.

This results in Danedream being blocked in Cologne and forbidden from
making the trip to Longchamp. Obviously her connections are doing everything
in their power in an attempt to avoid this catastrophe but it looks to
be a hopeless cause as restrictions have already been put in place and an exception
being made for Danedream does not look likely.

Nathaniel now extremely doubtful as well.

Has gone out to 110 on Betfair.

ya nathaniel is out

Camelot might just be able to turn up on the day as the only creditable runner to redeem his reputation haha

Looks like one of the easiest arc in years.

Buick for camelot would love to see that

Arc 'strongly' in mix for Camelot - Aidan O'Brien

AIDAN O'BRIEN has given his strongest hint yet that dual Derby winner Camelot will take his chance in Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.


The three time-Classic winner is as short as 3-1 for the world's richest turf race after leading fancies Danedream and Nathaniel were ruled out of the Longchamp contest on Tuesday.

O'Brien said that a final decision on his running plans will be made on Wednesday but the Montjeu colt was proving incredibly popular with punters who were looking for an alternative to ante-post favourite Orfevre despite not yet being confirmed as a definite runner.

O'Brien said: "The horses will do a bit in the morning and will then be scoped, blood tested and fully checked out. When that is done we will finalise plans.

"We're looking at the race very strongly for Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey and we would be really looking forward to it [running them] if it can happen."

"We've had the race in mind for St Nicholas Abbey for some time and Joseph will ride him."

With Nathaniel out of the race, his regular rider William Buick emerged as the 2-1 favourite with Star Sports to take the ride on Camelot should he line up in the Arc.

Regarding possible jockey bookings, O'Brien added: "We have a lot of options for Camelot if he runs. There is no shortage of world-class jockeys."

looks like Imperial Monarch will head to the canadian international

Massive shame how it's cut up. Gone from potentially classic to rather weak.

Saonois has the class to get out of trouble quickly which is useful in the Arc. Orfevre has taken to racing in Europe and will be suited by a decent gallop. SNA has a chance but if Camelot runs he'll probably be a pacemaker.

I have a really funny feeling Camelot is not only going to win, but win easily...