I just wanted to start a topic where I can post my analysis of races over here in Australia, I'll probably concentrate on Listed and Group races and will try do something up for each of those starting with Thousand Guineas Day on Wednesday.

Wednesday 17/10/2012 (Analysis done Monday 15/10/2012 on the basis of a Dead track)
Weather forecast is for some rain developing tomorrow and light showers on Wednesday, after racing on a Good track on Saturday I think the worst it will be is Slow for the early race (if that) and Dead by the time the Guineas comes round.

Race 5 Listed Race over 1200m
Morant is currently favourite and rightly so, came from miles back at it's last start on a day when few horses made ground from the rear, and prior to that he was far from disgraced when 2l behind Bel Sprinter in a G3. The worries are that he's coming to his 6th start this prep so could be feeling the effects by now and in barrier 1 as a horse who likes to get back he could find trouble in running. The main dangers are Free Wheeling and Cascabel, both are first up, the former coming off a good winter with a G2 place and a Listed win, he may find this a bit short first up though, Cascabel is a consistent sprinter who likes the track and distance and has a good first up record, has Listed and Group placings but would prefer it in an open handicap race.
Bets
Morant - Win, Cascabel - Place
Lays
See The World (Sydney horse carrying top weight who bombed last start in Melbourne), Onthelookout (Another Sydney horse, carrying provincial NSW form, going anti-clockwise for the first time, way out of its depth here)
Trifecta
Morant, Cascabel, Free Wheeling and include Sharnee Rose and Flat Chat for the minor placings.
Weather Watch
Should the rain come and the track gets to a slow or heavy, Overtake comes into consideration and Morant firms into shorter odds as both love a wet track.

Race 6 Group 1 Thousand Guineas for 3yo Fillies over 1600m
A tough race with many formlines to choose from. Molto Bene is current favourite but for mine is a bit short at the moment considering the size of the field. She has hit the line strongly both starts this prep and is looking for the 1600m, however she has not won yet this year and while I think she is a deserving favourite I can't have her at the price. The main dangers are Longport, Lady Of Harrods, Maybe Discreet & Commanding Jewel. Longport has finished runner up to Norzita (favourite prior to its withdrawl from the Spring carnival due to injury) at its past two starts (winning one on protest) and is a front runner who if she gets a soft lead can punish them, her previous two starts have been in smaller fields with less pressure on the pace so will probably find a soft lead more difficult to get.
Lady Of Harrods got the perfect run in the guineas prelude to finish of the top of favourite Commanding Jewel, drawn perfectly again she should sit just behind the leaders and finish off strongly and is a definite chance. Commanding Jewel looked the goods on debut but since then has failed to find the line, 3/4 sister to last year's winner Atlantic Jewel, she doesn't quite possess the same brilliance and while a threat in this race she has failed to finish her races off, the jockey booking doesn't inspire confidence either (Damien Oliver). Maybe Discreet just held off Member's Joy last start down the long Flemington straight, will benefit more than Member's Joy in this race as she likes to race on the pace and Member's Joy gets back and will find it difficult to get home as well on the tighter Caulfield track, Maybe Discreet has drawn well and should settle just off the pace and will be thereabouts at the finish.
Balaclava Lady is an interesting runner, she was ridden to perfection last start by Michael Walker to win as an unfancied 40/1 shot, and a lot of runners are going on to this race from there with damaged reputations as a consequence, will need the ride of a lifetime to win this however.
Bets
Lady Of Harrods - Each Way
Lay
Love For Ransom (beaten by aforementioned Balaclava Lady last start, has drawn poorly and gets back, will struggle to make an impression here)
Dear Demi - (Well beaten by Norzita and Longport as favourite prior two starts, difficult to see it coming here and finding the extra effort to turn the tables on Longport and Sydney horses are always a risk running anti-clockwise for the first time)

Race 7 Listed race for 4yo+ Mares over 1600m
A two horse race between Oasis Bloom and Star Of Giselle, with Star Of Giselle getting the nod. It loves the track, can get the distance and is at the 3rd run of her prep so should be in peak fitness. Oasis Bloom is stepping down from a G2 victory last start and could find the extra weight more tricky to deal with. Has one run at this track for a disappointing result, however that could have been due to the Heavy track that day. The two should be equal favourites but the $3.80 available for Star Of Giselle is more enticing.
Blue Nile is a place chance at good odds, beaten 1.8l last start and finding interference near the line. If it can stay out of trouble then it should be troubling the frame.
Bets
Star Of Giselle - Win, Blue Nile - Place