any thoughts???

i know the Americans love Wise Dan But Excelebrations form is rock solid 11/8 for me is a great bet i no the team are delighted with him
i really cant see him being beat its a pitty he will not be back next year think he could rule the mile division
& timeform rate him highly at 135 based on him watching Frankels bum for 2 years

Anything on the American Form Doc Hay i no you picked 2 Top Quality 2yo's last year Hansen (winner & Union Rags 2nd in the juve
i was on Union last year but you tipped the 1,2 any thoughts on this year

Isn't Hurricane Sandy due to hit there at the weekend? Any chance it could be off?

its heading north into canada dont think its heading to the west coast mate thats the last update i got

at first i thought you were talking about a horse called hurricane sandy senior moment

Already done my bets, Big on Excelebration at 6/4
Rest are
Marathon - Fame and Glory
Juv Fillies Turf - Flashy Ways
Juv Fillies - Dreaming Of Julia
F & M Turf - Marketing Mix
Ladies Classic - Awesome Feather
Juv Turf - Balance the Books
F @ M Sprint - Groupie Doll
Dirt Mile - Shackleford
Turf Sprint - Next Question
Juvenile - Power Broker
Turf - SNA
Sprint - Amazombie
Mile - Excelebration

I couldn't touch Fame and Glory after O Briens comments last time about him not wanting to battle anymore and could have had enough of the game.

Yeah, I know but I just don't rate the American stayers!

i have great doubts about F&G & Starspangledbanner
but you are right american stayers not the best

i lumped on EXCEL b4 draw
and its been kind too him he will win

In the juvenile division, Excecutiveprivilege looks the banker of the meeting at 6/4 in Fillies race, I think she might end up odds on over there, monster of a filly, can come from behind, go from the front, she will take all the beating. The colts race looks a coin toss between Shanghai Bobby and Power Broker, both were really impressive last time, if this was Churchill I would take the Champagne form all day but I was really impressed with how Power Broker ran to the line over course and distance. Shanghai Bobby's flight has been delayed by the Hurricane, not sure if that will effect his work schedule, New York horses dont have a great record when the Juvenile is run at Santa Anita and only one women jockey has won a Breeders Cup race so he has question marks. There is no collateral form so its hard but im siding towards Power Broker as he has improved for dirt, seemed to take a huge step forward last time and that track experience might just swing it. The reverse forecast could be a safe bet in that race as its impossible to be overly strong on either horse.

The Ladies Classic looks one of the best races of the meeting, Royal Delta, My Miss Aurelia and Awesome Feather are the 3 i'll be concentrating on, Royal Delta won it last year and was very impressive winning the Beldame last time, she hasnt ran at Santa Anita but she deserves to be clear favourite. My Miss Aurelia won the Juvenile Fillies last year and is still unbeaten in 6 runs, 3 of them Grade 1s, she beat Questing hands and heels in the Cottilion last time and although she is 7 pounds worse off with that one here, Questing had the run of the race that day and I fancy My Miss Aurelia to confirm the form. Awesome Feather, the 2010 Juvenile Fillies winner, clocked 1.33.47 for the mile at Belmont last time and is unbeaten in 10 runs, this appears to be much the strongest field she has come up against but you certainly couldnt rule her out. Love and Pride has a bit to find on the book but she won at the track last time and she shouldnt be far away. Its a clash of the generations so again, its hard to know who is the best, but there is a lot of speed on and I reckon My Miss Aurelia and Royal Delta will track it and can fight out the finish with Royal Delta coming out on top provided the recent cut she suffered doesnt effect her. 5/2 looks a fair price as there is a good chance she will be a bit shorter over there.

In the Mile I think Wise Dan is the bet of the meeting at 11/4, Excelebration was visually impressive last time but he is best on softer ground and on a line through Cityscape he has a bit to find with Wise Dan. It will only be two weeks between the races and QEII winners have a terrible record in the race, Wise Dan has had a perfect prep, has a nice draw and I think hes a goodthing.

In the Turf, St Nic deserves to be fav but this is a much stronger field than last year and Ill take a chance on Point Of Entry 7/2, with a saver on Dullahan 12/1.

In the Filly and Mare Sprint, Turbulent Descent looks too big at 8/1, Groupie Doll will take a bit of beating but I fancied TD strongly last year when she was a short fav and I have to give her another chance at that price.

Thanks Doc good read as usual & a good insight into some races i have not looked at yet
like you comments about the 2yo filly she must be very smart

Oh by the way Coolmore bought a 50% share in Shanghai Bobby today and will continue with Todd Pletcher

I stil strongly fancy Excel but Wise Dan is very good and will be a tough nut to crack but think excel will do the business
I think St Nic should be Winning the turf he has 1 to beat IMO Point of Entry

Cheers mate cant wait now

I agree with your views PJ.
Excelebration should take all the beating and i too fancy him strongly, if he runs up to his best he should win.
In the turf St Nic in all honesty should be winning it, and should be shorter in the betting. i think around 3/1 is a good price.
Point of entry However only beat treasure beach by 1 3/4 lengths at Belmont Park last time out, now come on how many lengths is St Nic better than Treasure beach? more than that easily. That form isn't good enough to win a Breeders cup Turf surely, and I'm inclined to think that the biggest danger could well come from Shareta instead.

Nick Mordin

EXCELEBRATION (43) put up his best ever performance to take the QEII by three lengths in fast time. The way he picked up at the end of a strongly run mile on soft ground forces me to ditch my previous theory that he might be best over seven furlongs.

It's now clear Excelebration actually appreciates a greater stamina test than he normally gets over a mile. He's won all five times he's run on soft or heavy ground. And here he took a race that is the most testing of all Group 1 races over a mile due to the stiff course and strong pace that it invariably features. In fact six of the last ten renewals of the QEII would have gone to a horse that had previously placed in a Group 1 over a mile and a half but for Rip Van Winkle losing by a nose in 2010.

The concern this raises is that Excelebration will not be suited by the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish. This is why French horses have won seven times in the Breeders' Cup Mile and British and Irish horses just three times.

One of the three British and Irish wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile was by Ridgewood Pearl on one of those rare occasions it was run on soft ground. The other two were by Barathea, who'd run a close fourth in the 6f July Cup earlier that season and Loyal Tycoon, who'd won the Nunthorpe and the King's Stand over 5f that season.

The lesson that it takes a British or Irish sprinter to win the Breeders Cup Mile has not been lost on trainers. The last six winners of the QEII that went on to run at the big American meeting all contested Breeders' Cup races over ten furlongs or more.

The awful record of QEII winners in the Breeders' Cup Mile rams the point home:

1998...Desert Prince..............................14th

1994...Bigstone.......................................8th

1993...Bigstone.......................................6th

1992...Selkirk..........................................5th

1990...Markofdistinction.........................7th

1989...Zilzal............................................6th

1988...Warning.......................................12th

1987...Milligram.....................................13th

1985...Shadeed..........................................4th

It looks rather clear that unless there's an incredibly unseasonal downpour in California Excelebration is not going to place in the Breeders' Cup Mile. The idea of taking the bookie's miserly 6-4 and 7-4 about his chances looks plain daft to me (he's forecast to start 5-1 by the American publication Daily Racing Form behind the obvious favourite Wise Dan). I think the stable should reconsider their plans and aim the horse at the Hong Kong Mile or Japan's Champions Mile instead. Better yet, put him away for the season and aim him at the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring. A win in that race over nine furlongs would prove his stamina and thereby increase his stud value.

History is History doesn't mean it can't be changed.
Don't care what the stats are they don't matter,Excelebration doesn't know them does he. Connections think he will have no problem with track, conditions etc and I agree (of course you wont know this until the race as you are going into the unknown a little) but Excelebration has only ever really been beat by the mighty Frankel! no horse in this field could get as close as he has. I will happily back Excelebration every day of the week to beat Wise Dan (don't care how good the Americans make him out to be) and I'm very confident he will go out and show it come Saturday, if anything I think the track will play to Excelebrations strengths as he has bundles of speed and as Aidan and Joseph have said he is a 6/7F horse who can get a mile. 6/4 banker IMO

They say pride comes before a fall

The way I see it is, if you run the race 100 times, your going to make more backing Wise Dan at 11/4 than backing Excelebration at 6/4. It might be close but at 11/4 I think its the bet of the meeting, he will be closer to 6/4 over there.

If it was a straight mile on good ground in Europe id be on Excelebration but everything looks in the favour of Wise Dan to me.

I also dont like Excelebrations preperation for the race, he has had nice breaks between all his races this season and now hes going halfway round the world with only 14 days from a testing mile in soft ground, he was trained for Ascot, Wise Dan has been prepared perfectly for this race. You didnt see Goldikova running hard races 2 weeks before the mile, she was aimed at the race specifically.

How can you say a horse running against a great miler is the best bet of the meeting? 11/4 or not
when there are other horses such as The Fugue & St Nic etc at around 3/1 who arn't running against a great horse.
If Excelebration runs to his best, he wins. rather back a 6/4 winner than an 11/4 looser! but everyone is different.

I just can't get away from Excelebration whatever the odds are, I'm happy with 6/4, Great bet!