Just thought I'd start this thread off for us all to have a place to discuss our fancies for this years festival. For my (value) banker of the meeting, I'm going for Puffin Billy in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (currently around the 10/1 mark). This unbeaten 4yo gelding from Oliver Sherwood's yard is 4 out of 4 and has never been extended.

I see Jezki and My Tent Or Yours as his only serious challengers, but I'm confident he'll make it 5 out of 5 come 12th March.

hurricane fly champ hurdle 5/1
quevega world hurdle 8/1

Blackmail was very impressive at leopardstown waiting to get a price for champion bumper

Have followed my tent or yours throughout his career and he is a very good horse, such a strong traveller. My worry for the supreme would be that i dont think he finds a great deal when off the bridle. I think he will enhance his supreme claims even more by winning the betfair hurdle. on at 20/1
What do people think Puffin Billy will go for, the supreme or neptune? i hope it is the supreme.
Overall i think Jezki is to short in my book at 3/1 and i wont be backing him.
I would also be wary of Un atout who could be seriously good.

I am going the First day of the festival, cant wait for it!

I have already tipped up Imperial Commander at 50's for the gold cup and after his superb performance on Saturday the fire is still shining bright. His best price has now halved but I still think he has massive each-way value in a wide open gold cup.

Imperial Commander (each-way) - 25/1 (Coral,Stan James) for the Gold Cup.

Most people think of Tidal Bay as a gold cup horse however Paul Nicholls has already come out and said that unless the festival going is soft TB will go for the world hurdle before a shot at the Grand National in April. He is a very nice price for the world hurdle with the 2 favourites both with doubts. Oscar Whiskey still divides opinion as to whether he stays a true 3m and Reve De Sivola's best form has been on very soft ground. At the prices Tidal Bay seems much more attractive.

Tidal Bay - 9/1 (sportingbet) for the world hurdle. 8/1 with some highstreet bookies.

I can't wait to see Darlan in the Champion, he is an awesome looking horse. I'm not sure if he'll be as speedy as Binocular or Hurricane Fly over his hurdles, so could easily be on the back foot after the first, but I'm sure he'll stay up the hill and that NH will have done as much work as possible to make sure he can keep up. Even if he doesn't win I'm looking forward to seeing him again, if I could own a horse it would be him! Then I can't wait for him to go straight to the Champion Chase in his novice season next Festival to take on Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, and Captain Conan... Wow, what a race that would be!

I would also love to see Coneygree winning the 3m novice hurdle. I think he'll be able to outstay At Fishers Cross, personally I think he might be better than him. But was just out speeded on the home turn on Saturday and couldn't get back into it, but I didn't think he gave up on the run in. I'm excited about seeing him in the Albert Bartlett. The New One looks quite a nice sort for the Neptune too, but I'd be worried STD (ha ha ) could panic again on the home turn at the Festival, but hopefully better ground will see him staying all the way up the hill.

The world Hurdle has got to be between Reve De Sivola and Tidal Bay hasn't it?? I'd love to see Reve De Sivola win it because again he's one I've always liked, but I'd worry that Tidal Bay might come and out sprint him, and then out stay him at the finish. The one plus to Reve De Sivola that I can see is that Tidal Bay's target is the National so surely PN won't be looking for Ruby to bottom him in Cheltenham just to keep the World Hurdle at Dicheat... Though knowing Ruby he probably will anyway! I'll be behind Reve De Sivola whatever happens.

I don't know why many people have dismissed the performances of First Lieutenant this season
I feel he might be a value each way bet in the GC
The 3m 2.5 f of the Gold Cup is definitely up his street
I only feel that a stronger jockey on him at Leopardstown would have seen him home, cutting off Tidal Bays run through
14-1 is a decent price

Gold Cup is wide open im leaning towards Long Run reluctantly
i do really like silviano conti but could this year be too soon for him

Does anyone else think this could be one of the hardest Festivals ever to predict?? Normally by now I have a few fairly firm ideas of horses I will be behind, but this year on this awful ground and with so many horses not having as many or any runs it's really hard to know. It could easily be an all Irish Festival as their horses are used to running on awful ground like this. Or, if the ground does dry up, there could be a few shock results. Particularly in the novice category, we could have one who has finished last in all its starts storming up at the Festival because it's been hating the heavy going, or one who hasn't even had a start winning it. I'm pleased I'm not going into this Festival with any big bets or any hopes of 'winning big', I think there could well be some burnt fingers, empty wallets and shock heroes at this years showdown.

I think in the bigger type races we have a reasonable idea who will be up there, after all top class horses 'should' be able to show good form on any ground. Your right about the novice races though. There could be a shock or two if the ground firms up abit. The same goes with the big handicaps, a horse who's had a few bad runs on the heavy ground could spring to life when it dries up abit.

With the weather going from one extreme to another recently its becoming increasingly likely we may get a soft going festival.

Overturn V Simonsig

Here is the replay of Overturn's win in the Scottish Arkle today
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/resu ... 5723cf0b98

Here is what Donald McCain had to say after the race..

"We had a hunt round Sandown and then two-miles-three round Doncaster, and we have had to be fairly sensible in waiting for today. That's what he's been waiting for.

"He was smashing and Jason said he was magic. He's been waiting for the day when Jason jumps out of the gate with him.

"We always looked for a reason not to send him chasing. If he'd made one mistake at home we wouldn't have done it. He enjoys it, that's the main thing - from the first day he's schooled, he's done what he did here.

"He will go straight to the Arkle, I wouldn't put myself through that again! He's won on three different types of track now and that will stand us in good stead for a month's time.

"We've been second in a Champion Hurdle and we jump fences like that. I have respect for Simonsig, you have to, but we don't have to be scared of him. He may well beat us, but he'll know he's had a race, that's for sure."


Upon watching this race earlier, i found myself thinking 'this horse just doesn't stop!'.. anyone else think @ 4/1 he is a viable alternative to Simonsig? I have to agree with McCain's final comment, delivered in typical underdog fashion - "he'll know he's had a race, that's for sure."

Overturn's display yesterday was good, but the question is, is he good enough to give Simonsig a race
I think so and will be backing him
The only thing that I am worried about is whether the festival will be spoilt by the weather. We have more inclement weather forecast for later this week which is suppose to last a week or so.
The water in the ground has never had a chance to dry out or even drain this winter, and any more snow and downpours will leave the festival a lottery, if it goes ahead.
Pray for drying conditions.

Sire De Grugy at around 20's for the Grand Annual, A mate of mine has an interest in this one and he had been banging on to me about Arkle possibilities for years and that is the sort of regard this horse has been held in. Cantlow has come out and won twice since losing to SDG at Lingfield and SDG was unlucky in defeat by Captain Conan. Cantlow is now favourite for the Festival Handicap Chase/Centenary Novice Chase and Captain Conan favourite for the Jewson shows that SDG is right up there in the Novice chasing ranks. If it goes Soft for Cheltenham, I certainly will be plunging serious money into this and the only worry I have for the race is Nicky Henderson plotting up to 6 horses for this as usual but 20's is still huge especially for e/w hunters.

Apart from this, Un Atout, Rule The World, Darlan, Overturn, Long Run and Tidal Bay (If World Hurdle is choice of race) are my main selections as it stands.

Darlan's fall at Doncaster didn't look good at all. Sure hope the horse is ok.

Pretty sure it's bad, horriffic fall, feel so awkward watching it.

Confirmed. RIP Darlan.