thanks db
your confidence on toronado has been noted
thanks for the wood ditton picks
noticed gatling boy out tomorrow
remember you put that up to win at good odds
good odds again tomorrow what your view?

While I wouldn't be confident of getting Ghurair beaten, I do have to take the opinion that that race is not as clear cut as the market suggests and that he is mighty short. I liked Havana Beat, Greatwood and The Gatling Boy last season, and I think all three have plenty more to offer this season. Cumani seems slightly behind with his string, despite a couple of winners at Kempton over the last few days, so that would be a concern for Greatwood, while Havana Beat has an iffy draw, so I certainly think The Gatling Boy has reasonable each-way appeal. He's from a really good family and I know connections did harbour Derby aspirations heading into the winter for the big son of Tamayuz. He should relish being stretched out over ten furlongs on a track like this and I'd imagine with the prize money at stake, fitness won't be an issue, but given his size, he may not be the easiest to get fit. Of the three mentioned, I think Havana Gold is the most reliable to give a good account against the favourite, Greatwood the best of them long-term, but 16/1 the Hannon charge underrates him for sure; just a case of whether or not that price pays when all is said and done.

think you were spot on
more than one league difference
between toronado and other three

Toronado very very impressive there
Serious horse

4/1 guineas
10/1 derby
stoute juddmonte filly db?

Without seeing Dawn Appraoch, how he has wintered and if he has trained on, as you would expect he would have, 4/1 for the Guineas is what they would call, missing the wedding, then going for the funeral. The Greenham is a glorified conditions field, and the third favourite for the main event is a once raced Dundalk winner, so all today has proven is that it is probably a two horse race, not a one horse race now; that said, at this stage still in ante-post betting, I'd rather take the 25/1 about Van Der Neer than the 4/1 left about Toronado.
The Derby is the value, because he should be favourite after that, plain and simple. Mars is the worst priced horse in the history of racing, Kingsbarns is racing against time and Battle Of Marengo in any other season would be a pacemaker. It is an insult to my eyesight that that glorified plodder is shorter in the market than the classy Hannon colt, though I suspect PJ will take umbrage at that. Add in the fact Telescope has now been squeezed into a ridiculous price, given he is yet to race outside of maiden company and on the back of that Cravern performance, how can Toronado not be favourite?? He'll stay ever inch of a Derby trip, I have absolutely no doubt about that!!

Call Ahead has not shown anything to suggest she is anything other than ordinary; she is priced up on connections and unless her homework is misleading, I don't think this is an average enough maiden for her to win it. Same probably applies to Pavlosk tomorrow, though she is the nicer of the two and more forward, but keep an eye on the Islington filly in the penultimate race. She works with Liber Nauticus and I know she has given out a good feel more than once alongside the Classic targeted filly. The draw is not ideal and I don't know if she is ready to go or not here, but if the market speaks positively, you'll know why.

Still Dawn Approach for me in the Guineas.

Battle of Marengo is a leger horse IMO
Mars price is Crazy 6s here in Ireland (I would not back him at that price he has a lot to prove yet
(though as everyone knows i have nailed my colours to the mast) = Meaning show one's intention to hold on to those beliefs until the end.
Telescopes price is also ridiculous
Kingsbarns is fighting for time but the plan is for a late trial i heard today that is still on target

So i think i have agreed with everything you have said DB

in football terms i am only Accrington Stanley at this you are Manchester United

Would Kingsbarns have the most ability out of the ballydoyle horses PJ and be the main hope? Would have to be a big player in the Derby along with Toronado and maybe even Dawn Approach if they decide to go that way. Telescope ridiculous price i agree after only winning a maiden. We had the same with Bonfire last year with all the hype and now that horse has been found out to be rather ordinary.

If you are going to liken me to a football team, I suspect my beloved Arsenal are a more appropriate fit
Hillstar completed our four representatives at the Cravern meeting, and made it four respectable performances over the two days, but no winners. It's hard to be overly down on a second place finish, but it was nevertheless a performance well below expectations for such a well-handicapped horse. It was admittedly a messy race and he has had to make an awful lot of ground up, just to get into a challenging position, but even up to that point, it was far harder work than it should have been. He'll no doubt come on for the run, and I suspect he found the ground today fast enough for his liking, but the proximity of Heading North is unimpressive and whether or not the winner was dossing in front, or just given a tactically astute ride to keep some back, the reality was the Stoute charge showed disappointingly minimal fighting spirit in the closing stages. I still thoroughly believe he'll be contesting superior races in a years time, to that in which the opposition today will find themselves and as such, his inability to register a win is a missed opportunity and he'll certainly not be worrying any of the Derby principals with his effort this afternoon.

Newbury sees a whopping seven horses from the list compete over the two day card, with the immense added annoyance that four clash in the same maiden; where are two divisions when you need them?!

(Friday)
14:30 - Newbury - Conditions - 10f

Always an intriguing little contest this, often won by a horse going places, with the recent roll call featuring the likes of Light Shift and High Heeled. If similar is to come from this renewal, it will most likely need be won by the selection, as the four in opposition fail to offer the same future potential as the son of High Chaparral. His opening handicap mark is lenient and the fact that connections are willing to forgo that route is telling of his claims here, and of the regard and expectation they hold for him this season and while the yard haven't been in particularly good form, they did enjoy a winner yesterday, thus I'll be a shade disappointed if he doesn't take this race en route to better things.
Rating - *****

(Saturday)
13:50 - Newbury - Group 3 - 12f

Took a while to power away from inferior opposition at town moor a few weeks back, but was reported to have never traveled in the ground and will find conditions more to his liking here. Very much a stayer in the making and the stiffer a test this is, the more he will come to the fore. Noble Mission might be rated higher, but make no mistake this is the best horse in the race and hopes must be that he can take another step towards the Ascot Gold Cup on what will be his first real test of the season.
Rating - ****

16:05 - Newbury - Maiden - 8f

This is a very decent maiden that will see plenty winners come out of it, including this gelded son of Beat Hollow, but others bring in stronger claims on form and profile, so while I think he'll be nearer first than last, I do suspect winning may be beyond him here. Yard are however starting the season in good shape and decent show expected.
Rating - ***

16:05 - Newbury - Maiden - 8f

Been looking forward to seeing this son of Azamour return to the track after that promising debut, made in good company. The Dante entry is the one I prefer most from the four runners entered and his claims are bolstered by the fact his small yard has started the season is decent form.
Rating - ****

16:05 - Newbury - Maiden - 8f

His promise was more evident on debut, than that of the Ed Walker charge above, but like that one, it came in a strong contest and it won't be a surprise to see the son of Kyllachy priced up as favourite for this contest on the back of that. He has wintered well and his homework has been good since returning, so he has claims that will match his likely market position, especially with the Warren Place team hitting the ground running. That said, my slight preference falls elsewhere, though he is undoubtedly going to prove a big player / danger in here to all.
Rating - ****

16:05 - Newbury - Maiden - 8f

Greenness cost him on debut, where missing the break resulted in an awful track position throughout that he just simply couldn't overcome. He finished his race well, but the calibre of that contest falls a long way short of this race, and while good things are both thought and expected of the son of Mizzen Mast, I suspect he may have to wait a bit longer before he breaks his maiden.
Rating - **

16:40 - Newbury - Maiden - 11f

Has done well over the winter and continues to show promise on the gallops that gives him hope, to some degree, of following in those talented family footsteps. He'll obviously be better with racing and time, and isn't going to be geared towards debut, but I would hope he could run a race of potential that can be built upon going forwards.
Rating - **

How confident are you on Model Pupil beating Noble Mission on Saturday DB? I wouldn't have thought it was the better horse out of the two so its interesting you say that. I was going to bet Noble Mission but that has made me think twice now haha.

held in very high regard by the team
but i think the disruption in his preparation is far from ideal and could be detrimental to his Derby hopes time will tell
last spring Mars was said to have great potential his homework was impressive
But Kingsbarns was preferred for the RPT & Mars was put away
Foundry and Ruler of the World the 2 of them are around 25/1 could be value

I'm sticking with Dawn Approach for the 2000 guineas too, think he'll prove to be something special this season.
And Moth for the 1,000 guineas.

contributer been smashed nearly fav now
what about so beloved tomorrow
and sure you mentioned sign manual last year
plus what you think about
greenham and the fillies trial
oh and border legend

Contributer is where he should be; they got that market badly wrong having him at 9/2, with Incorporate at 7/2. I know Space Ship ran well yesterday, but if the Juddmonte colt, or indeed Cruck Realta are able to win this, the other three should be retired immediately as a public service to racing
I suspect this is a bit of a tool, the Dunlop charge, and for me the race revolves entirely around him, so only right that the market does too!!

Noble Mission
He's slow and yes, Model Pupil is too, but Model Pupil is slow because he is a stayer, where as Noble Mission is slow because he is slow. More is expected from Model Pupil this season, than from Noble Mission, not solely by me I hasten to add, and the Hills charge has a better engine to take to battle. The fact it is twelve furlongs on Saturday, that makes it interesting between the two, and so to answer your question, I'm not fully confident that Model Pupil will come out on top, but there is a big chance he will in my opinion. He has a lot more yet to offer and the John Porter market has way too much between the two, for all that it is only one firm that has priced up so far.

So Beloved
They should have put him away last season, when they planned too, as that last run was just a complete nightmare. He's done well over the winter and he has always held his own at home with Dundonnell and Pythagorean, who has now been gelded I seem to recall. The trouble you have tomorrow, apart from it being a warm little handicap is the son of Dansili is a massive horse and not easy to get fit at home. He looks to have been given a workable opening mark, so he certainly has a big chance on that alone, but I wouldn't be shocked if the closing stages got the better of him ultimately; certainly a horse who is going to have a nice day out at some point this season though!!
Ribaat is the Kremlin House Guineas horse, hence the weight of money behind him. They had similar aims last season in this race, which came crashing down around them thanks to Aljamaaheer finishing only fourth, but whether the Guineas is a realistic option for Ribaat or not, they certainly think he will be contesting Group races before the season is out. Make of that, what you will!!

Border Legend
Talented and deemed to be very well-handicapped, but he's not all there, nor is he easy to win with, so aside from needing plenty luck in the run, Hayley will have her work cut out with the ride alone. All depends if 10/1 is enough compensation for all the above; for some it will be, for some it won't and I'll take my position contently in the latter group.

Sign Manual
He's a horse I thought would prove well-handicapped and progressive when stepped up to staying trips, but under the proviso of good, fast ground, which he may not get tomorrow. I don't know if he is capable of putting it all together yet, up against more hardened handicappers, thus gut feeling would be that tomorrow is not the day, but obviously if the market suggests otherwise, I'd quickly take serious note.

Fred Darling
Roshdu Queen would be a non-player for the Guineas in my mind. I think others will not only improve past her, but I'd have to have a big doubt about her getting the Newmarket mile, and at the prices for this race, those concerns must translate. I don't know what happened to / with Maureen in the Cheveley Park Stakes, but she would my preference from the two principles. However, I'd be looking for a big run from Agent Alison who is a big old filly and has bound to have appreciated another winter on her back. She had her problems prior to the Marcel Boussac, which in itself was a mess of a race and in my view, has less to find here than the price differential would have you believe.

Greenham
Might have a bearing on the French 2000 Guineas, but certainly won't have any relevance to the English 2000 Guineas, not as far as win purposes anyway. That said, interesting little contest with Moohaajim and Olympic Glory hard to split. I would actually say the Botti charge has slightly stronger form, and in a truly run mile on fast ground, he'd be my preference, but this race will be none of those things, so I think Olympic Glory will win the battle, before going on to loose the war.