good stuff db
confidence rewarded
well on top in the end
got 4/1 3/1 and 5/2 last night
the last is in double with my fancy
heeraat

needed every yard
but another gamble landed
two doubles going onto heeraat now
if bohemian dance makes it three
it will be behind the sofa time

Well done; hope you had a nice win
Newbury seems to be next in a long list of tracks sporting a definite pace bias at the start of this new season.

As such, Contributer did well to come from last in a slowly run race and I suspect that effort alone was the reason he didn't draw away in the manner expected at the furlong pole; all the same, job done in comfortable fashion. He wasn't up against the greatest bunch of opponents, but it was a good start and he is a nice horse with a future; it'll be interesting to see what route they take from here.

My tracker has reminded me the count for tomorrow goes from seven to eight, as Newbury won't be the only maiden featuring a clash of list runners. Anyone would think there is a shortage of maidens in this country?!

19:30 - Nottingham - Maiden - 10f

One of a few in this contest to show promise in one juvenile run and could be case of who has improved most since; the son of Oasis Dream has done well over the winter, continues to show promise and should relish the extra distance over a more suitable track. He's got a reasonable chance, especially with his yard starting off well, and he should be there or thereabouts, but he'll improve with racing and as such, it is hard to be uber-confident about him in what is quite an open contest.
Rating - ***

19:30 - Nottingham - Maiden - 10f

Can't crab the start to the season her stable has made either and maybe it is worth noting she has been returned into a contest such as this, ahead of some easy-kill fillies maiden. That said, she meets three well connected colts, looking to build on promising introductions and so just like Emperical, it is hard to be overly enthusiastic about her win chances in what appears a warmish little contest. Of the two though, surprisingly maybe, she would edge preference in my view with the Cecil charge seen as more a long-term project.
Rating - ***

On a separate note, I couldn't help but notice Doc Hay running over 5f, on soft ground, in Ireland no less. Can't help but think all your Christmases have come at once Joe?!

"Ing Hay(Doc Hay) was charged three times with practising medicine without a license on accusations from local, non-Chinese doctors and a Portland couple, but the charges against him were dismissed each time. He was generous to the community, a quality demonstrated by the discovery at the time of his death in 1952 of over $23,000 in uncashed clients’ checks, some of them written during the Great Depression."

Decent race but he must have a chance with everything in his favour. Dont know about Leitir Mor, he had plenty of chances to win races in Ireland last season and he looks a bit of a placepot horse, ran the race of his life in the Dewhurst like most horses Bolger sends there, but the rest of his form isnt anything special. There isnt a lot of early speed in the race but Nero Emperor should make sure he dosent have it all his own way. Cape Of Approval couldnt beat Bold Thady Quill last time, who is a decent animal but this looks tougher. If ive got Leitir Mor right, and the Doc runs up to his best then he should have Maarek to beat, 6/1 looks a fair price but so does 10/3 Maarek. Obviously im with the Doctor.

I will have to give Fran Berry some more tomorrow, I had a decent bit on Birds Eye View first time out this season and the saddle slipped, not his fault I obviously but he go the blame for it at the time. I thought she could be well handicapped off 79 and at 5/2 I will give her another chance to prove it.

I notice you didnt mention Mystical Sapphire, 50/1 is surely too big? they are risking a very nice mark with her, or Guarantee, who I quite like the look of. Have to be with Educate in the Border Legend race.

What do you make of the the last race maiden? Squire Osbaldeston caught the eye with Cecils in good form, but looks to be a lot of potentially decent newcomers.

A lot depends on why Mystical Sapphire has the entry here, as to what to what view to fill. No doubt she failed to fire at Kempton and while nothing was officially reported, I still maintain the reason for her wayward effort was largely due to the bit slipping; she is definitely better than that run, but have connections kept the faith that she is a lot better than that, or just decided to take in a few days out anyway while the opportunity presents?!
I think the reality is somewhere in between the two, but with preference in the former camp, so my view on her would have to be that she is certainly capable of outrunning 50/1. She travels well, has a good turn of foot and on pedigree should be able to reproduce that not only on turf, but on turf no worse than good to soft. However, she obviously has four more established fillies in Roshdu Queen, Maureen, Agent Alison and The Gold Cheongsam to match it with, and I think she'll be reliant on at least two of that quintet under-performing to reward an each-way bet. Still stranger things have happened
The 10/1 has gone I see, but I'd still favour Agent Alison if there is to be a shock on the cards.

I've never been taken by Guarantee, just don't totally rate him and but for that one piece of form, where he beat Biographer, I wouldn't even be entertaining him. He is a soft-ground horse, so a lot will depend on what conditions are like today, but that St Leger run was woeful; he was totally outclassed and as such, his price sucks here; I still think the front two are or should prove to be, too strong.

Squire Osbaldeston has come back well from the winter and his homework is strong. He'll appreciate the step up in trip and while he is on the short side, he'll be the one to beat I guess. Feel Like Dancing, Circus Turn and obviously Hamelin have shown ability on the practice grounds, but all will be doing a lot of learning on the job; as far as as Squire Osbaldeston is concerned though, I'm no big fan of the sire!!

Unlucky with Agent Alison, ran a blinder, you called the forecast which paid £27.55! and spot on about Guarantee.

Agent Alison seemed perturbed by the bashing she got at the start, but I think the better horse won. She might turn the form around over the Newmarket mile, but I don't think it was a particularly good race. I'm surprised Maureen is shorter in places than Sky Lantern; I've never been a big fan of the latter, but even though defeated, her second behind Hot Snap looks the more solid effort of the two.
Mystical Sapphire was disappointing; thought she would show a bit better than she has done
That looked a nice pipe-opener for Doc Hay. Never really led into the race and as such, never able to land a blow, but staying on well to the line, while looking like he might have needed it a touch physically.

Model Pupil looked very reluctant under pressure and that is the second time in three starts since his injury, he has adopted that approach. Twelve furlongs in this grade proved insufficient as he was caught out the moment the pace quickened and could never make back the ground; he certainly needs upped in trip from now on, but he's evidently a very different horse post-setback to prior, and that makes him a far less appealing proposition to follow as the season goes on.

The four that clashed in the maiden, did so as the first four in the betting, but they did not finish in the order expected by the market, or by me. Cape Peron was impressive in victory, as he was keen early, and had to make plenty ground to challenge, off what was a relatively sedate pace. He has beaten a couple of good yardsticks drawing away and looks like he will be better still, stepped up further in trip; something his breeding supports. Kyllachy Rise did nothing wrong in defeat and ran a corker to finish second, probably not totally suited by having to do a lot of the donkey work and seeing plenty daylight; he'll certainly have his day soon enough!! Glorious Protector was keen and unsuited more than most, by the race developing into a sprint. Not much travelled better, but when let down under Spencer, he just couldn't find a gear change. Fourth looks a disappointing run, given the support he came in for, but I think there was definite reasons to mark his performance up and I'm sure he's another who will benefit from being upped in trip. So nearly a one-two-three finish, but never any danger of a one-two-three-four finish as Secret Session posted a real stinker. He looked unwilling from a long way out and virtually stopped to a walk heading inside the final two furlongs. I did suspect, contrary to the market, that he was a bit out of his depth here, but not nearly to the degree that would explain that run and it'll be interesting to see which way the well touted son of Mizzen Mast goes from here.

The Newbury meeting was rounded out with Hamelin, who shaped largely as expected. He ran green, but showed plenty promise, a bit unlucky not to finish closer, tightened for room briefly when finding his stride, before staying on again at the finish. Time will tell if the race was any good, but he certainly showed plenty to build on next time and he'll be a lot better for the outing, both mentally and physically.

I must say regards Nottingham, I think the market has over-reacted to the Contributer form by the price they have Thouwra in at. The Dunlop charge was returning from a setback that day and readily accounted for the Godolphin charge, who while admittedly shaping well, did so in a class five Wolverhampton maiden. All things considered, I just don't see why he is as short as he is, and I'm actually more tempted than I thought I would be to get him beat with the Beckett filly, Lemon Pearl, with the market as is right now.
Not sure why the money is coming for Brass Ring; may be an ordinary maiden, but not ordinary enough for him to win it!!

The Beckett yard has done little wrong so far this season, but Nottingham was not a happy hunting ground this evening for them. No doubt Lemon Pearl was the worst of their three disappointing favourites, a well beaten seventh showing none of the promise she did on debut last season. While it was far from ideal to race three wide, I think the big issue was the ground as she never looked comfortable on it, and was reaching the whole way up the straight. Based on that performance, you would imagine she'll be switched to the AW, should the sun continue to shine and I certainly wouldn't quit on her just yet.
Emperical ran a solid race, enjoying a nice run around the inner, but unable to quicken and just plugging on steadily to fill third. One more run and he'll be assessed at which point he'll become of greater interest.

Last Monday didn't go so well for a list representative beginning with P tackling a Windsor maiden, but hopefully history won't repeat this Monday as another takes his chance at the Berkshire venue. We also see action at Wolverhampton as the sister to Bated Breath makes her seasonal return.

18:50 - Wolverhampton - Maiden - 6f

The Charlton yard have so far been slow to start the season, but the hope would have to be that Abated can overcome that in this field, despite the fact she'll need the run. She needs to learn to settle, but this is a weak enough contest and while she won't remotely be a betting proposition, worst case scenario she will be assessed for a mark after Monday evening.
Rating - ****

19:00 - Windsor - Maiden - 10f

Remains entered in the Derby and is steadily coming along at home, though homework is yet to truly catch fire. The step up in trip should really suit and bring forth plenty improvement and worth remembering connections won this very maiden last season. Sets the standard on form, though not by miles and obviously the Godolphin newcomer, also kept in Derby contention, is an interesting opponent. Persepolis the one to beat, but I'm hopeful more than confident I have to say.
Rating - ****

you got all the trials right db
so who wins the guineas then?
had nice win on court minstrel today
missed it last time but remember
how much you talked it up
for betfair hurdle and then for cheltenham
won a good race easy in end

I've not been paying any attention to the jumps, since Cheltenham and I stupidly hadn't been tracking him. He's a good ground horse, I mean why wouldn't I keep an eye out for him when the sun finally shines?! I feel a DOH is appropriate!!
I'm glad he has shown how good he is and more so, how ridiculously well handicapped he was from one-thirty-one, but I'm gutted to have missed him, especially at Plumpton. How an earth has he been allowed allowed to jump off at 3/1 against that field?!

2000 Guineas
It's no secret I rate Toronado a great deal, but Dawn Approach was easily the best juvenile around, and I think he is more a Guineas horse than the Hannon charge, in more ways than one. If they meet again at Epsom, I'd be with Toronado all ends up and I actually believe as the season goes on, he'll improve past the Bolger charge and make up into the better horse, but for now, I still think Dawn Approach will hold sway, come early May. Aside from that, anyone backing Christoforo Colombo or Mars at single-figure odds needs locked-up for their own protection!!
Style Vendome has a good turn of foot, but the form doesn't amount to much, and Garswood looked good the other day, but again, did so beating absolutely nothing of value. George Vancouver has his moments on fast ground and if getting that, I could see him filling out third, but I prefer Van Der Neer for that spot. He did well to finish second behind Kingsbarns at Doncaster last season and was far more superior than the winning margin at Lingfield indicated. He travels well, he can quicken and he has belied concerns over the mile trip. I think getting back on the better ground will be a big plus to his chances and while I don't think he can win, he's underrated in the betting. I'd even go as far as to say, I think he might be an Irish 2000 Guineas winner in waiting, should the principle duo have their sights set elsewhere as expected.
I should mention Steeler who was narrowly behind Van Der Neer at Town Moor; if connections want to win a big race with him this season, he should be lining up at Greenwhich Park tomorrow morning.

1000 Guineas
Far more open race and Hot Snap obviously made herself the one to beat, with her impressive trial success. The extra-furlong will help, alongside the additional experience now gained, but they did go a good end-to-end gallop in the trial and I just wonder if she will get caught for tactical speed if the same isn't replicated here. One with no such concerns would be Big Break, but she is racing against time and I suspect with Hot Snap now such a contender, the Weld filly may bypass this in favour of Ireland. If she is ready to take her chance though, she would be my idea of the winner and always has been.
Just the Judge was a smart juvenile and has wintered well, but the form of her Rockfel win has been as much miss, as hit and I'm worried by that a touch. I'd like to see her go close after what happen to the filly the yard sent here twelve months ago and I certainly think think she is a big danger to the Juddmonte duo, more so than What a Name, who I'm not convinced is good enough. Mind you, if Homecoming Queen can win a Guineas?!
Certify, deserves credit for notching win after win, but I wouldn't be shocked if she hasn't trained on; add in the temperament questions, the unconvincing reports of late and the performances of the two fillies they sent here last season and she makes zero appeal at her current price. Sky Lantern looks best of the Hannon trio and her best won't be good enough, so onward we go to Moth. I was interested in her last season on breeding, but she was too weak to finish her races; the winter seems to have rectified that, but while visually impressive, her price bears no relation to what she has actually achieved, nor therefore her realistic chances. I wouldn't give up on Agent Alison at a price, more for place purposes than win obviously, and I suppose if there is something from complete left-field to enter calculations, unlikely as it is, Orpha could be the one. Strike one for Juddmonte though

Id be very, very surprised if Dawn Approach didn't run in the Irish 2000, its the only Irish Classic Bolger has not won yet (Irish Leger is hardly a classic) and he has always said the horse was a miler. New Approach nearly missed the Derby because he wanted to win it! I dont think he would even have a Derby entry if it wasnt for his owner who is going to have a hard time convincing Bolger its the right race for him. Coincidently, the English 2000 is the only English Classic he has not won excluding the Leger(hardly a classic these days).

Im very confident that he will take both this season, touch wood, the horse stays sound. The eyes on this beast are something else, he has the heart of his sire and he will be the Champion 3yo. Im on large at 3/1

Doc Hay ran ok, in hindsight, Maarek was a cracking bet at 10/3 and he was different class in that field. I dont know if there is anything in this but I have a theory that he prefers to challenge on the wide right of the field with no horses to his right. All his significant wins have been achieved in this style, whether that is just a weird coincidence or not I dont know but he has hung right slightly on numerous occasions throughout his career. Is a quirk like that possible? Even his maiden win, he was on the outside until challenged inside the final furlong and he nearly lost the race after looking a comfortable winner. Not making excuses for him not winning yesterday the best horse in the race clearly romped in and it wouldnt have mattered where he was.

If the Godolphin influence wasn't there, I think he would certainly go down the Irish route, but with them at the helm, I'm not so sure. Obviously a lot will depend on whatever else they have in Derby contention, and if he were to lose the 2000 Guineas, I've no doubt he'll pitch up in Ireland looking for compensation, but if he wins at HQ, I still think the lure of the Derby could be too appealing for them to sidestep. I was trying to think of a runner they have had in the Irish Guineas since Dubawi won, and I couldn't think of any at all, but according to the records they did send Anna Salai over to the 1000 a couple of years ago. That is it though, and for an operation their size, especially one that in recent seasons has taken a bit of time to find form, thus not fared so great in the English Guineas, I think that speaks volumes; more so when you consider not always are the Irish Guineas fields that strong.
They've certainly been more forthcoming with regards to the Irish Oaks and Derby!!

I suppose any quirk is possible; at a push he may have inferior vision in one eye, but I haven't paid enough attention to all his past runs to take a view on it.

Cant believe Quevega is 13/8 second fav, get on while you can!

If the ground is anywhere near good she won't see which way solwhit goes.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingne ... 92072.html

Solwhit has always been a soft ground horse anyway And Byrnes has reported that he didnt come out of Aintree very well. The two 3 mile races he won have been absolutely shocking, but yeah, im sure if he runs up to the level of beating Holywell 3 lengths, Quevaga in receipt of 7 pounds wont see which way he went