10 days out from the race seems the right time to start a thread about the big race. If I feel like it I'll offer some opinions and analysis of the runners. Feel free to chime in with your opinions too. Keith and Emerald and Johnny you can bring your bickering over here too if you want! It's all good.

I opened the past performances today of the probable favorite of the Derby - California Chrome. And there it was right in front of me as plain as day! California Chrome's whole card - Victor Espinoza!!! Take a look...



From his debut to November 1st he lost four of his first six races. Victor gets aboard for the King Glorious Stakes on December 22 and he hasn't lost since. Notice that in each of those five wins he's 3 or more lengths clear in the stretch and even more at the finish. I absolutely love horses who awaken under a new jockey. He just may be unbeatable in the derby with the only question being the distance as he is not ideally bred for a mile and a quarter.

A Derby winner usually runs a Beyer speed figure around 108 in the big race. From my best guesstimate he should run around a 110. DEFINITELY the one to beat.

One last thought - In June of his 2yo season he was showing big speed and choking in 5 1/2 furlong sprint. Now as a 3yo in April he is rating just off the pace in a 1 1/8 route and going on with it. He has indeed put it all together.

Let me know what you fancy. I'm looking to lay something in the race.

I've not decided who to back yet because Cairo Prince got injured but I think the Wood Memorial was the strongest trial race. I'd like Vicars in Trouble to win For Rosie Napravnik but he's a front runner and there seem's to be lot of pace in the race. I'll be looking for a horse to come from of the pace.

I'll try. Be warned my handicapping has been terrible lately. Nashwan had a nice longshot that hit the board last year so maybe his choice would be a better hope.

Using the free past performances from DRF for the top 5 3yo's which can be found here...

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-watch-weekly-divisional-ratings

...I'm offering a few opinions. Next up Hoppertunity. Trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Pegram and friends - Hoppertunity has probably been pointing to the Derby since he was purchased for $300k. If any trainer can get a horse primed for the Derby it's Baffert. Judging by his race schedule and how much they have asked of him in his races he is ready to run lights out.



Jan 4 - Debut. Under hammerlock is only allowed to basically gallop with a modest run at the end.
Jan 30 - Set free and disposes of 10 horse field with some left in tank.
Feb 22 - Hammerlock hold again in an obvious prep for the Rebel. Again modest run at the end.
Mar 15 - This race he is pushed to give all he has. Gamely rallies to win Rebel after being brushed. Enough points now to make the Derby.
Apr 5 - With the points secured the goal here was probably to run well but not to deplete his reserves. Nice slow pace and nice run into a fast final half set the stage for him perfectly.

My best guess on what Beyer speed figure he'll run in the Derby is 106. Not a superstar but the breeding and the perfect schedule make him a solid chance.

Why he made his career debut as a 3yo in January makes one wonder what delayed his training. Seems fit now but who knows if they might be pushing him faster than they should be.

Next up Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong. A horse for a course? If the Derby were being held at Aqueduct he would be the prohibitive favorite. I'm not convinced he can run as good as he does at Aqueduct at any other track. That being said his two late runs at the Big A as a 2yo in the Remsen and in his last start in the Wood are very powerful late runs. They are legitimate runs and not false rallies picking off tiring foes.



I'm also wondering if Jockey Rajiv Maragh and him have a connection going on. If so, expect a big performance. Breeding says yes too.

Guessing his Beyer speed figure is a tough one. Going by his 2yo campaign he should be around a 98. But his Wood figure is a legitimate 104. Is that the Big A affinity owing to the big figure? I will hedge and say he should run a 103 on Derby day. A tough horse to handicap for sure.

Next up Vicar's In Trouble. And going a mile and a quarter he will indeed be in trouble. With dosage numbers of DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 he is bred to be a sprinter. His two big stakes wins this year have been with the help of slow paces. I'd prep for the Preakness if I were the connections and then go back sprinting after chasing the triple crown glory.



These past performances are free from Brisnet as the DRF's past performances for the other contenders from now on are not. From what I can glean he should run a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the Derby.

Here we have Danza. Winner last out in the Arkansas Derby off of one sprint prep. Quite an accomplishment but not an ideal way to prep for the Derby. Did that Arkansas Derby win take too much out of him? His breeding suggests that he would barely get a mile and a quarter. A positive is he's never lost with Joe Bravo riding.



He has my favorite handicapping angle out there. One that is most powerful. Show speed in first race back. Nice rally in second race back. Made even more impressive in that the speed was in a sprint and the rally was in a route. I'm going to say he's ready to run on Derby day and is very much a contender.

I give him a Beyer speed figure of a 105

Candy Boy. Son of underrated sire Candy Ride. Took 4 tries to break his maiden and now is Derby bound. John Sadler not my favorite trainer. Like most Candy Rides is bred to run all day so the Derby distance is no problem. A bit of a light campaign before the derby but it appears they're prepping him to run his best on the first Saturday in May with the one easy stroll behind California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. That after getting his qualifying points in the RB Lewis Stakes win in February.



Should love the expected fast pace and distance. A decent hope.

Beyer speed figure guess of 104 on Derby day.

Dance With Fate. Much heralded as a synthetic course specialist. I came down to him and Medal Count in the Blue Grass and I of course picked Medal Count. A somewhat odd schedule to get to the Derby with a break after the El Camino Real Derby into a huge performance in the Blue Grass. Has the right style and breeding to be here but can he run on dirt? Is 1 for 1 with Corey Nakatani so there's that.



Seems like he rarely misfires and I'm thinking he'll be ready on Derby day. Handling the dirt the big ?.

Beyer figure guess on Derby day of 98 so one of lower figures.

Intense Holiday. Terrible name. First thing I notice is his first three starts he's all speed and then after that he slowly but surely learns how to rally off of it like a good Harlan's Holiday should. Has a pretty nice prep schedule this year with Jan 25 prep into the Feb 22 big race into the Mar 29 heavy duty prep. Like the looks of that. Looks ready to run on Derby day.



Dosage figures of DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83 suggest a mile and a quarter may be pushing it as far as distance limitations. Should get it but may struggle in final yards. His rally two starts back in the Risen Star win is legitimate and better than any of the horses I've put up so far. Serious contender.

Beyer speed figure in the Derby guess of 102.

Samraat. A rather nice looking New York bred. Bred to run all day but also versatile enough to lead every step in his debut in a 6 furlong sprint race. Always runs and doesn't appear tired. Should be a serious pace factor. They've been rating him in his last three starts and if I trained him I would probably try and set every fraction in the Derby. When on the lead he looks scary.



Beyer speed figure of 102 in the Derby. Given an easy lead this one could surprise. A seriously talented individual.

Tapiture. Running for the current poster child of American trainer Malfeasance - Steve Asmussen. Almost always in the money with the last start being the first out of the money finish. That last start looks merely to be a prep for the Derby IMO. Should be fit enough for the Derby but with a somewhat sprint oriented pedigree raising some flags for me. Won the Ky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs by four lengths at 2 but also lost a maiden race at Churchill Downs. Loves the track? Who knows?



Is running Beyer's this year 10 points better than predicted from what his 2yo Beyer level suggests he should be at. Something is different that is behind his much improved figures and the only thing that seems right is he loves Oaklawn Park or he is just flourishing for some other reason.

I will hedge and give him a Beyer speed figure of a 100 on Derby day.

Wildcat Red. Never raced outside of Gulfstream Park where he has used his big speed to his advantage on the very speed favoring Gulfstream dirt surface. Dosage numbers of DI = 5.67 CD = 1.20 say he is very much a sprinter. They're probably chasing a dream because I wouldn't try the Derby with this one. Maybe the Preakness but I'm from Maryland.



Can't see this one staying the distance. Maybe off track moves him up but still no.

Beyer on Derby day of 100.

General A Rod. Perhaps the worst name ever given a horse. Which is what happens when you name a horse after yourself which it appears the owner Armando Rodriquez did. Has the breeding to stay the Derby distance. Like Wildcat Red has been exploiting the Gulfstream Park speed bias this year. Always runs a good race and has run at Churchill Downs before.



Derby day Beyer of 101