Medal Count. Appears to be a turf horse who at this late stage they think might have some dirt ability. I cant see him liking the dirt and his best hope is an off track. Wheeled back in 8 days off his second to last start to run a big second in the Blue Grass. Maybe pushing this one too much if they run in the Derby. If allowed one run off a suicidal pace he may grab a share.



Bred for long distance turf racing. Beyer guess of 97. Lowest one yet.

Ride On Curlin. Ran huge numbers sprinting as a 2yo. Has run a lot of races and his last start was an impressive rally in the Arkansas Derby behind Danza after being bumped at the start. Looks like he loves to run but perhaps they've run him too much? Getting the Derby distance is a ? too with dosage numbers of DI = 3.44 CD = 0.85.



Don't like this one for the Derby but sure like him overall. I'd save for the Preakness.

Beyer on Derby day - 103

Chitu. Lightly raced speedster is talented but a son of Henny Hughes winning the Derby? hmmmmm no? A.P. Indy on the dam side offers hope though. Has been exploiting short fields and speed biased tracks to qualify for the Derby. Probably running in Derby just to be there or maybe he's there to set it up for Hoppertunity? Conspiracies.



Not keen on this one. Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby though so toss at your own risk.

Beyer in Derby - 101

Uncle Sigh. Seems like a little bit of dreaming going on if he makes the Derby. Maybe he's better than it appears? Gave Samraat all he could handle finishing second to him twice. Now they go for Derby glory after a subpar Wood Memorial performance. Would be a shocker for sure and can't quite like this one. Another one maybe gearing for the Preakness?



Beyer speed figure on Derby day 99.

We Miss Artie. The Ramseys have horses and gosh darn it they're going to get a few into the Derby. Perhaps they should keep this one on the turf stakes trail instead? He shows some pretty bad races on dirt. Will need an off track to move him up.



Derby day Beyer of 95. Slowest yet.

Harry's Holiday. Debuted as a 2yo for a claiming price of $30k. Now he is Derby bound off an up the track finish in the Blue Grass? Has run some nice races on the way but seems far outclassed if he runs. On the bright side he runs a huge race every other race and the Derby would be an "other" race.



Derby Beyer of 92. THE slowest yet.

Vinceremos. Has heavily tilted toward sprinting dosage numbers of DI = 7.00 CD = 1.13. Huge knock there in my book. But has rallied in routes so this one pretty talented. Coming off an up the track finish in the Blue Grass will make his odds attractive. Maybe good enough to earn some purse money? Tough call



Beyer on Derby day - 96

At this moment in time my moneys going on Hoppertunity and Intense Holiday, both look horses that will stay and both will come from off the pace. There is a lot of pace in the race.

I will have Ride on curlin

Was sniffing around and found this comment on the DRF live feed interesting...

Commanding Curve. Very much bred for a mile and a quarter. Has Secretariat, Northern Dancer, Seattle Slew and Alydar in his lines. Runs pretty slow and steady and his times are slow too. Trainer drew into the race last year too and picked up second. Could see him gaining some money but seems more a Belmont type horse.



Beyer Derby guess of 95.

That does it for the horses with the exception of the also eligible. Now time to adjust figures for pace and post and make a choice.

It's a shame Hoppertunity misses the race.

That makes it easier for me as I had questions on whether he was running to his fullest potential. Foot bruise and bad feet in general might explain the late start to his racing career.

Also eligible draws in. Pablo Del Monte. An early bloomer trained by Wesley Ward who hasn't won since his first two wins. Just like every other Wesley Ward trained horse. Revved up to win early which ruins the rest of his racing career. Tried to rate off the pace early this year at Gulfstream which makes no sense. Back to speed last out with an improved effort. His speed here in the derby is doomed.



Can't access the Beyer speed figure for this one as of yet so no guess on that.

After much deliberation I have made my choices.

1. Danza - 104
2. California Chrome- 105
3. Intense Holiday - 102
4. Wicked Strong - 102
5. General A Rod - 101

The numbers to the right of the name are the Beyer speed figure I predict each horse should run.



Danza - really like the look of Danza after winning the Arkansas Derby off of one sprint prep. In that sprint prep he faded gradually at the end. In the Arkansas Derby he was running the longest race of his very brief career and he managed to rate kindly off the pace and rally for a powerful win. That win was against a rail and speed bias that day at Oaklawn too. I have reservations about his breeding because his parents were strictly sprinting types. Which I think says tons about his natural ability to overcome those barriers. There appears to be a bias at Churchill Downs this week favoring horses who have tactical speed and can rate to the outside just off the leaders which will play much to his favor. Undefeated with Joe Bravo riding and undefeated at two turns are big pluses. He has maintained the exact same workout schedule after the Arkansas Derby - that he was on before it. All systems appear go. Final piece to the puzzle was this observation made earlier in the week by a DRF contributor...



California Chrome - Will be hard to beat and I won't mind if he beats me. He has been having an easy go of it on the West coast and the hectic Derby field may be too much along with the expected fast pace. He has been doing whatever Victor Espinoza wants so it may not matter. Special horse/jockey bonds are hard to bet against.

Intense Holiday - Has the best rally I've seen which was in his second to last start. He put up a huge workout this week that was quite impressive. I'm banking he will be a tad too late and Danza will get the jump on him.

For the hell of it the whole field ranked in order of projected speed figure...

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1. California Chrome - 105 - 1st
2. Danza - 104 - 3rd

3. Intense Holiday - 102 - 12th
4. Wicked Strong - 102 - 4th
5. General A Rod - 101 - 11th
6. Candy Boy - 101 - 13th
7. Vicar's In Trouble - 100 - 19th
8. Wildcat Red - 100 - 18th
9. Samraat - 99 - 5th
10. Dance With Fate - 99 - 6th
11. Chitu - 98 - 9th
12. Ride On Curlin - 98 - 7th
13. Uncle Sigh - 97 - 14th
14. Commanding Curve - 97 - 2nd
15. Vinceremos - 96 - 17th
16. Medal Count - 96 - 8th

17. We Miss Artie - 93 - 10th
18. Tapiture - 93 - 15th

19. Harry's Holiday - 91 - 16th

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