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 horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo 
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:16 pm
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Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
I cull at 2yo Martin, I check them over at 1yo but I keep until 2yo, they are worth more at auction for one thing. I agree it is annoying when the game turns one of your crappy cast offs into an unbeatable 10x G1 winner, but the stats don’t actually improve the ai just races them better, it has always been a bit like this.

As for the stats drop it is not that you see them as they will be at 3yo anymore it seems to be you see them for what they can be when mature, that could be anything from 3yo to 9yo, and there are other factors involved too, they need to race, potential will not improve so well if they don’t get races into them early and yearly, and try to get as close to your best guess of distance, be it from the indicator or breeding or race experience.

As for what I cull it differs from my flat, jump and combined games, but roughly I want my jumpers to be 75%-80% as a 2yo with at least 50% realised potential, since I am currently doing full on league training and turning out over 300 foals a year I am generally culling anything less than 80% and 55/60% realised, but I think different breeding lines do different things so you need to puzzle out your own breeding to a degree. Flat and combined games where you have the advantage of running them as 2yo (you get the best potential uplift at 2yo) I tend to be a little more forgiving, depending on distance I want 80-90% potential on flat, 50% realised. Combined can be all over the map since it is inevitable that your going to mix flat and jump maturity points, but the 80% / 50% rule of thumb largely applies.


Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:22 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:42 pm
Posts: 111
Location: Lincolnshire, England
Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
'At maturity' seems much more plausible than 'at 3 yo', and as you say, 'maturity' is different by type of horse. You also make a good point Githyanki about breeding lines - I have a one 'family' that seems to improve at 5-6 yo but another that just doesn't improve at all with age.

So you persevere with as low as 50% unrealised potential ? Much lower than I normally go to - I need to be a little more generous perhaps. Will maybe try that in the next few seasons.


Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:41 am
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:16 pm
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Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
Flat horses gain potential faster largely due to the 2yo year, you will know by the time they have raced at 3yo if they will develop, longer distance types I give till 4yo. 50% for a jumps horse is possible to fill out by around 8 or 9 but it does not happen often, it is why I am moving more to 55/60%. I tend to be more forgiving where the parents were both stars. You will know by the time they are 6/7 if they are going to make it.

In terms of numbers on my NH game let’s say 250 foals, I usually cull at 2yo down to around 100, by 6/7 this will be down to about 70, by 8 your talking 40/50 horses that have made it and go after the big races, but some are still just no good. My flat barn has less mares from 150 foals the first cull is usually to 50 the 3yo chop maybe 30 who I persist with.


Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:40 am
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Selling plater

Joined: Sun May 02, 2010 11:37 am
Posts: 37
Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
I only play Flat, and I don't play league mode so I can see the stats of my yearlings and see how they progress through their career.

Overall potential does improve with racing / age, generally about 5 points per season. So if you've got a 1yo with say 75% potential, they may well reach 90%+ at full maturity.

Realised potential also increases with racing, though they'll never increase more than about 20 points from where they started. They will however pass down their overall potential to their offspring, rather than the realised potential.

Cruising speed decreases about 20pts between 1yo and 2yo, and is fully regained as a 3yo. I'v never noticed a horse gain cruising speed between 3yo and 4yo - though that's not to say that it can't happen.

Extra speed is set as a 1yo and doesn't change between 1yo and death.

Personally I do my culling when they are 1yo as it's easier than trying to do so at 2yo and figuring out what their cruising speed bar truly is. Sprinters with low cruising speed tend to gain less at 3yo, whereas stayers will gain more. Again though I'm sure the 1yo bar for this stat is final. If money is an issue then, you should do your culling at 2yo as they will raise more money at the sales, as a previous poster already mentioned.

With regards to staying types (on the flat), I usually find that if they're good enough, they're old enough. There's a 1m6f group race in Dubai or South Africa early in the season, open to 3yo+. Logically you would expect a 3yo to get destroyed in such a race as they're only just turned 3yo and it's a long distance. But if I have a good stayer, e.g. future St Leger or Cup horse, they'll win that race.


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Again the above is based only on my experiences playing flat game - I can imagine that jumps bloodstock behave differently, and quite possibly different bloodlines on the flat could behave differently (though I'v had tonnes of saved games, importing and exporting trying to breed the best bars.)


Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:44 am
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Selling plater

Joined: Sun May 02, 2010 11:37 am
Posts: 37
Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
Regarding culling young horses, I tend to compare the bars to the horses mother. If they're an improvement, then I retire the mare (generally, unless they're fairly special) and keep the new horse.

If it's male, it's even tougher as I have to compare them to the stallion, and my existing stallions. If they're not an improvement, or offer something different in terms of their blood lines or the make up of their bars, then they go in the bin.

Obviously sometimes you'll get an offspring that's a bit of a hybrid, for example higher cruising speed than it's dam, but lower Extra Speed. Usually a result of mixing parents that each have 1 higher stat and 1 lower stat, compared to their partner.


Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:49 am
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:16 pm
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Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
The increases you mention are a decent indicator but it is not an absolute, I have seen 10% moves in a racing season and realised potential move more than 20% in the life of a horse. Every line is a little different, your point about breeding on is accurate, though more often than not a horse with low realised potential needs a paring with a horse with high realised potential to produce a better foal.

I won’t speak to the other stats as I cannot see them and my experience would be from the last version of the game.


Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:57 am
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Handicapper
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 10:22 pm
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Location: Texas, USA (on loan from Wales, UK)
Post Re: horse speed decrease from 1yo to 2yo
The yearling stats are often their 3yo stats (along with their max stamina), so you'll see a 'decrease' in stats as the yearling ones are actually not reflective of their ability at that stage. The potentials are the only thing that are likely to be different between the 1yo and 3yo seasons dependent on the results of any 2yo races.

This is what I've experienced on a mix of schedules, mods, default, and both UK and US flat schedules. Your mileage may vary. ;)

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Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:37 am
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