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 Hoping for expert advice 
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Handicapper

Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:45 pm
Posts: 261
Post Hoping for expert advice
Hi everyone

I was wondering if anyone could offer me any advice on one of my horses.

Before I give details I should tell you that I am a small time player (only get to play once a week) and enjoy training a variety of abilities, so often my horses are not looking to win any big races.

Bezaff is a 5 year old mare who has run consistently well up until she ran in a class 2 hurdle carrying relatively little weight where she was outclassed the whole way. After this i entered her in a conditions race over 2m3f (her prefered distance is 2m ) on good ground. She is rated at 144 (hurdler)

However, the next time she ran in the same type of conditions race she did not do so well and i wondered if anyone had any thoughts as to why?

She stalked behind as usual and then at 10f made her way steadily through the pack. At 5f she was at the front and had a full stamina bar. At 3f everything over took her, because she just became so one paced.

The distance was the same
The going was more preferable (She likes firm but has won on good to soft, this was good )
The weight was the same (and relatively compared to others in the field)


What I did notice was that the race that she lost was about 6 seconds slower (could this mean that it then turned into too much of a sprint at the end for her to cope with? could she have done with more pace at the start ?)
I also noticed that sedgfield (where she lost) has easier fences and is less testing than chepstow (where she won)

my training was the same (green training for two weeks before the race) and her weight (477kg) was the same.

I know it's not an exact science but i do enjoy the realism of the game and appreciate learning new things and perserving with mediocre horses. I also understand that given these details it's difficult to pinpoint reasons but i guess i'm just most inteersted in why the horse was so badly outpaced at the end?


would love to hear what people think


Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:17 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
What does her confidence bar look like?


Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:46 am
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Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm
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Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
even though the race is the same level the horses in the one where she ran badly may have been far superior to the ones
she beat in the one she won no race is the same even though the level of the race is this same.

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Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:45 pm
Posts: 261
Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
Hechicera wrote:
What does her confidence bar look like?


Thanks for the reply

confidence - 66%

enthusiasm - 100%

Finish application - 100%



but battling qualities is very very low

I am never really sure the difference between finish application and battling qualities


Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:11 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:45 pm
Posts: 261
Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
even though the race is the same level the horses in the one where she ran badly may have been far superior to the ones
she beat in the one she won no race is the same even though the level of the race is this same.



Thanks for the reply and I do see your point. I was just surprised because both times my horse was the top rated in both races and in the one she lost she was beaten by a 9yo rated at 125. But I see what you mean and it could be that the horses rating does not reflect the horses ability under those conditions


Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:19 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
With that confidence, it is unlikely that was a factor.

I have noticed in SO7 that pace of the race does seem to be more of a factor than in SO6.

One other thing that can be a factor is her maturity age, which you can't see. So if it was just this one race, it was probably some combination of pace and the other horses. If it continues with her, it may be her maturity has peaked, or it is still peaking and her distance preference may bump up a little. While you can't see it, it is hereditary. So you may want to check when each parent's career peaked over fences (if they did).


Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:24 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:45 pm
Posts: 261
Post Re: Hoping for expert advice
Hechicera wrote:
With that confidence, it is unlikely that was a factor.

I have noticed in SO7 that pace of the race does seem to be more of a factor than in SO6.

One other thing that can be a factor is her maturity age, which you can't see. So if it was just this one race, it was probably some combination of pace and the other horses. If it continues with her, it may be her maturity has peaked, or it is still peaking and her distance preference may bump up a little. While you can't see it, it is hereditary. So you may want to check when each parent's career peaked over fences (if they did).



That's really helpful thank you


Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:04 pm
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