View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Fri Nov 01, 2024 2:04 am



Reply to topic  [ 19 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
 Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes 
Author Message
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
Just gunna say that I don't see California Chrome winning this. Needs this race as a comeback. I see Albano win. Loved this horse on the Derby Trail and had a nice 2nd in Haskell and 3rd in Smarty Jones. Not going to take a stand against Untapable. Too dominating. Really want to see who is better, Untapable or Close Hatches. Also, with Palace Malice's retirement, my top horse of the year pick is Close Hatches. Unless Chrome wins out, Close Hatches should have this.

_________________
http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com


Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:02 am
Profile WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
Check out Horse Racing Nation. Although it is a fan powered site, they are usually correct about what horses are going towards what races (although they have Close Hatches targeting both the Distaff and the Classic... hmmmm). I use them in lieu of PPs for many big races as they provide video for many races, along with commentary on the horses by other members. I myself am a member and comment from time to time.
I see Untapable as the best 3yo, just a pinch above Shared Belief. While I love SB a lot, he only has two big wins this year, the LosAl Derby (on a more unique track and against a small field) and the Pacific Classic (most impressive, but proves that he is a synthetic horse). The LosAl Derby is his only win over dirt, all other wins were over synthetic. Untapable should never have been sent to the Haskell. The connections just wanted to try and make another Rachel Alexandra. However, if she loses the Cotillion, she will fall to 5th in my 3yo rankings. This is a very important race for her. California Chrome needs to string together a win in the PA Derby and a very good showing in the Classic to get 3yo of the year, if Shared Belief doesn't win the Classic (which I don't see him doing).
Right now, here is my prediction for the Classic Top 5:
1) Will Take Charge
2) Toast of New York
3) California Chrome
4) Majestic Harbor
5) Shared Belief
I think Will Take Charge will come back from his 2nd place finish last year to take the Classic, followed by Toast of New York, a horse that I think will relish dirt, as he has only been run on synthetic and turf, the latter of which he hates. California Chrome just seems to have magic to tap into when he runs in California. Majestic Harbor will love the return to Santa Anita and is my pick in the Awesome Again. Shared Belief is too good to finish out of the top 5, but probably won't like the dirt, or the pace. I would also watch out for Aidan O'Brien's War Command. The connections had the 3rd place finisher of last years classic, Declaration of War, and O'Brien is dying for a Classic win. I like this horse if and only if he can step up in the QEII or Champion Stakes. The other O'Brien nominee is Australia, who is probably the best horse out of every one in this field, and would go for this race over the BC Turf as a lose here wouldn't affect his stud fee (according to owner Michael Tabor). Although unlikely, I wouldn't count this shipper out of running, but you will almost definitely see an Aidan O'Brien horse in the Classic.

And just make a nice spot on the rail and and just stay there all day. Duct Tape yourself if you have to! And if you have a TVG account and the TVG app, you can bet from your phone! And I think Parx might have phone wagering themselves, not 100% sure on that tho.

_________________
http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com


Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:43 pm
Profile WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
mjtags11 wrote:
Check out Horse Racing Nation. Although it is a fan powered site, they are usually correct about what horses are going towards what races (although they have Close Hatches targeting both the Distaff and the Classic... hmmmm). I use them in lieu of PPs for many big races as they provide video for many races, along with commentary on the horses by other members. I myself am a member and comment from time to time.
I see Untapable as the best 3yo, just a pinch above Shared Belief. While I love SB a lot, he only has two big wins this year, the LosAl Derby (on a more unique track and against a small field) and the Pacific Classic (most impressive, but proves that he is a synthetic horse). The LosAl Derby is his only win over dirt, all other wins were over synthetic. Untapable should never have been sent to the Haskell. The connections just wanted to try and make another Rachel Alexandra. However, if she loses the Cotillion, she will fall to 5th in my 3yo rankings. This is a very important race for her. California Chrome needs to string together a win in the PA Derby and a very good showing in the Classic to get 3yo of the year, if Shared Belief doesn't win the Classic (which I don't see him doing).
Right now, here is my prediction for the Classic Top 5:
1) Will Take Charge
2) Toast of New York
3) California Chrome
4) Majestic Harbor
5) Shared Belief
I think Will Take Charge will come back from his 2nd place finish last year to take the Classic, followed by Toast of New York, a horse that I think will relish dirt, as he has only been run on synthetic and turf, the latter of which he hates. California Chrome just seems to have magic to tap into when he runs in California. Majestic Harbor will love the return to Santa Anita and is my pick in the Awesome Again. Shared Belief is too good to finish out of the top 5, but probably won't like the dirt, or the pace. I would also watch out for Aidan O'Brien's War Command. The connections had the 3rd place finisher of last years classic, Declaration of War, and O'Brien is dying for a Classic win. I like this horse if and only if he can step up in the QEII or Champion Stakes. The other O'Brien nominee is Australia, who is probably the best horse out of every one in this field, and would go for this race over the BC Turf as a lose here wouldn't affect his stud fee (according to owner Michael Tabor). Although unlikely, I wouldn't count this shipper out of running, but you will almost definitely see an Aidan O'Brien horse in the Classic.

And just make a nice spot on the rail and and just stay there all day. Duct Tape yourself if you have to! And if you have a TVG account and the TVG app, you can bet from your phone! And I think Parx might have phone wagering themselves, not 100% sure on that tho.


I'm going to have to totally disagree with u, Shared Belief is the real deal. How can u say he wont like the Dirt, his best win in the Los Alamitos was on dirt. I don't think the toast of new York will like the dirt and Chrome has it all to prove after a tough triple crown season. V.E. Day is improving fast and will love the distance being by English Channel. I'd like to see Close Hatches go for the Classic, she deserves to have a crack at the big one. I think will take charge is a bit of a dog, not a horse I could ever bet on.


Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:34 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
I'll tell u what I cant wait for and that is Keeneland with it's new dirt surface. Back to proper racing.


Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:58 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
Looked at the entries and both are looking to be the best Parx has had in years. Untapable has a tough field to face, with both Joint Return and Stopchargingmaria in the race. Also, question, is the Cotillion a handicap race? I see there are differing weights and not sure why. As for the Pa Derby, Tapiture is one to watch. He draws a great post away from the class horses and will benefit from CC getting the rail. Candy Boy will not enjoy his post. Should be very interesting. Post Position will be a huge factor this weekend. Have fun! Good luck!!! And I will post my analysis of both on my blog later in the week if you'd like to read it.

_________________
http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com


Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:59 am
Profile WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
It is the Dirt Mile he might go for. Either that or the Classic. I hope Baffert doesn't go for the Classic. Dirt Mile much better fit. If the BC was at Monmouth or Los Alamitos then I would agree (two tracks that make longer races seem short), but Santa Anita isn't like that. The Classic also is a very unique race to win, like the KY Derby. The best horse doesn't always win (or do well); the winner is all about who has the running style to beat the pace.
Tapiture will definitely be an overlay, with both CC and Bayern in the race. If you can get him at 8/1 or even 10/1, take him. CC will probably be 1/2 by post time. There will be a lot of money to be made on this race, I can tell you that!

_________________
http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com


Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:19 am
Profile WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
I like Sweet Reason in the Oaks, she's kept on improving and not had a hard season. Untapable is the best horse in the race but ran a life less race last time in the Haskell( first horse beat) and I've not seen any reason for it and has had a hard season for a fillie.

If the best Chrome turns up then he wins but has had a tough season and is this just a prep for the classic. I think at 10-1 Candy Boy has some great value, has a two pound advantage over tapiture for a neck lose and has improved since he meet Chrome in the santa anita derby, and has been working well in the mornings. I cant see him out of the first 3.


Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:16 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2872
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
The Cotillion - If Untapable was wrong they wouldn't put her in this spot. She romps here. Little Alexis appears to have a nice future.

Pennsylvania Derby - Noble Moon has raced sparingly so far in his career. For the first time he comes back relatively quickly after his last race which tells me he is ready to fire. With the edge in fitness I will give him the nod over California Chrome coming off the layoff.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:34 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
PA Derby - California Chrome is best horse in the field but layoff will hurt him. I think Tapiture is growing into a great horse and has a great chance to take the race, and at pretty good odds. Candy Boy is going to pick up the pieces late in a race that I see having a pretty fast pace. Protonico is my live longshot. Finished 3rd by a bit to Travers winner V.E. Day in the Curlin Stakes and won the Smarty Jones last time out here at Parx. Could definitely pick him up at good odds.
Cotillion - Would love to see Untapable win this one, but can't put my hopes on her. I think they long layoff will hurt her. Stopchargingmaria has been the filly to beat over the summer, but Sweet Reason has been hiding in the shadows, and has wins in the Acorn and the Test to prove her worth. While she is probably better at a mile or so, I think adding in just an extra half a furlong won't hurt her too much. Sweet Reason is my pick in the race.
You can also read my analysis on my blog, Horse Racing Station (link in the signature).

Bets of the Day:
-Cotillion
---$10 Across on Sweet Reason
---$5 Daily Double Sweet Reason with Tapiture
-PA Derby
---$10 Across on Tapiture
---$10 Across on Protonico
---$5 Trifecta Box Tapiture, Protonico, California Chrome, Candy Boy

_________________
http://www.horseracingstation.wordpress.com


Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:38 pm
Profile WWW
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am
Posts: 2872
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
I just gots to give my opinion on Sweet Reason. I absolutely loved her as a 2yo. Her first two races were like none I've seen before. Then from the third start on she hasn't progressed figures wise. Bred to go long she has since shortened her distances to become effective. Going shorter in each of her last three races. Look at her two races longer than a mile and she has run her two worst races. If I were to guess that something happened to her it was in the Frizette where she swerved in sharply at the break. She hasn't looked the same to me since then. Judging by her breeding and her wins - she is more Mt. Livermore than Street Sense. Which means 7 furlongs is her optimum distance.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue


Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:08 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
SiriusChill wrote:
I just gots to give my opinion on Sweet Reason. I absolutely loved her as a 2yo. Her first two races were like none I've seen before. Then from the third start on she hasn't progressed figures wise. Bred to go long she has since shortened her distances to become effective. Going shorter in each of her last three races. Look at her two races longer than a mile and she has run her two worst races. If I were to guess that something happened to her it was in the Frizette where she swerved in sharply at the break. She hasn't looked the same to me since then. Judging by her breeding and her wins - she is more Mt. Livermore than Street Sense. Which means 7 furlongs is her optimum distance.


I think u can come up with reason why she's been beaten.

I think she bounced like a rubber ball after the spinaway, she got beat at the breeders cup but travelling from the east coast to the west coast is tough and going into the meet everyone said it would be tough for them and it must be double tough for two year olds. I think she was not right after the Gazelle and that was why she was of for a couple months. I still think she's improving and we will find out how good she is.

The race I'm looking forward to is Fast Anna in the Gallant Bob, I hope she's over her tough last race. I loved her mum Dreaming of Anna.


Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:46 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
Pace is holding up today so the Fav's got no reason not to show their best. Hold up horses look like they have little chance.


Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:30 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am
Posts: 4146
Location: Wales
Post Re: Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion Stakes
Just seen a fantastic 2yo at Santa Anita, his name is Punctuate and looks to be one to follow.

When I was looking through the Card I noticed Punctuate because I saw his mum was Peppers Pride( unbeaten New Mexico bred), I loved following her in the New Mexico racing state. I think it might be her first horse and he looks a quality race horse and has the looks to go with it and only cost 300,000. Perhaps one to keep a eye on for the breeders cup.

I see Rachael's and Zenyatta first off spring are not far of from running.


Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:52 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 19 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.