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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Well just be happy we aren't the AQHA. As much as I am a fan of Quarter Horse racing, the Speed Index figures are the most messed up figures I've ever seen. They are judged on a scale with 100 being excellent but only on the 3 fastest times from that track each year over a 3 year period (so 9 races total). The average of those nine become the Speed Index time for a 100 at that track for the distance. But do 9 races really make a true reflection of what a horse did. And then, the Speed Index doesn't take into account post draw or wind. As much as I don't like using Beyer figures (I prefer Brisnet pace figures or my person speed figures), the are light years away from Speed Index figures. Maybe when I'm president of the AQHA they will change (one day...). My biggest complaint with the Longines rankings is that a horse doesn't get a ranking changed unless it races. Shared Belief is still high in the rankings even though he is out for the year. I would prefer a ranking system like that of a tennis or golf, assigning point values based on the race (top 100 races receive a lot more points than other races) and all graded/group races have points assigned to them, as well as prestigious listed/handicap races. Then they are unbiased and based on track performance. Having people (or watches?) vote on horses is fine and all but is way too biased to be correct.
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Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:40 pm |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
mjtags11 wrote: Well just be happy we aren't the AQHA. As much as I am a fan of Quarter Horse racing, the Speed Index figures are the most messed up figures I've ever seen. They are judged on a scale with 100 being excellent but only on the 3 fastest times from that track each year over a 3 year period (so 9 races total). The average of those nine become the Speed Index time for a 100 at that track for the distance. But do 9 races really make a true reflection of what a horse did. And then, the Speed Index doesn't take into account post draw or wind. As much as I don't like using Beyer figures (I prefer Brisnet pace figures or my person speed figures), the are light years away from Speed Index figures. Maybe when I'm president of the AQHA they will change (one day...). My biggest complaint with the Longines rankings is that a horse doesn't get a ranking changed unless it races. Shared Belief is still high in the rankings even though he is out for the year. I would prefer a ranking system like that of a tennis or golf, assigning point values based on the race (top 100 races receive a lot more points than other races) and all graded/group races have points assigned to them, as well as prestigious listed/handicap races. Then they are unbiased and based on track performance. Having people (or watches?) vote on horses is fine and all but is way too biased to be correct. AQHA is not as bad as our timeform because they use 9 races to give a figure, well there was this one horse called Harbinger who ran one big race and yet they give him the ninth highest rating ever. He never ran to within 10 to 12 pounds of that one race. They love to hype horses up , stupid people seem to take our ratings as gospel ( it does my head in). I always say go back and watch racing and judge for u self who's the best not some stupid ratings. I've got to admit Shared Belief's performance in the Santa Anita H'cap is still the best performance so far in the US this year.
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Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:58 pm |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
So, being the bored person that I usually am... I decided to try out my idea with rankings... Let's just say it kinda failed.... But I'll share them anyway. So here are the Top 40. Rank-Horse-Points 1-The Grey Gatsby-6200 2-Solow-6000 3-Flintshire-5540 4-Criterion-3380 5-Australia-3200 6-Dolniya-3150 7-Able Friend-3000 7-Charm Spirit-3000 7-Treve-3000 10-Golden Horn-2750 10-Main Sequence-2750 12-Free Eagle-2720 13-Gentildonna-2600 14-Night Of Thunder-2560 15-American Pharoah-2500 16-Al Kazeem-2400 16-Anodin-2400 18-Lankan Rupee-2340 19-Tonalist-2050 20-Bayern-2000 20-Blazing Speed-2000 20-Cirrus Des Aigles-2000 20-Epiphaneia-2000 20-Gleneagles-2000 20-Honor Code-2000 20-Karakontie-2000 20-Kingman-2000 20-Noble Mission-2000 20-Postponed-2000 30-Dissident-1840 31-To The World-1800 31-Toast Of New York-1800 33-Chautauqua-1790 34-Shared Belief-1750 35-Spielberg-1720 36-Happy Trails-1690 37-Real Impact-1600 38-Arod-1560 39-Contributer-1500 39-Duramente-1500
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Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:08 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Anyone know why Kieren Fallon is riding longshots at Indiana Grand - and falling off his horse at the start??? Hang it up Kieren...
2015 Statistics Starts: 38 Firsts: 1 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 3 Earnings: $150,504 Avg. Earnings Per Start: $3,961
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:44 pm |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I just saw that race! I thought the same thing. Sad... but this is only his first week at Indiana Grand so most of his stats are for Santa Anita riding for heavy longshots and low percentage barns. He should get at least a few winners at Indiana Grand before the end of the month. But he should retire. Maybe after a few more falls right out of the gate he will learn.
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Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:55 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I will stand by my thoughts that American Pharoah's breeding is modest. He only has 8 dosage points. Pioneerof The Nile is unproven and so far besides Pharoah is not a revelation like the incredible Tapit (Tapit has 60 dosage points!). Maybe in time he will be. Empire Maker is a beautifully bred horse who had a brief but impressive career and was a highly anticipated stallion. He's been sold to Japan interests - tell you something? Pharoah's first 3 dams in the line have dropped nothing of great ability other than him. I'm going to daydream that he is Fappiano 2 or even Mr. Prospector 2. If he is the second coming of Mr. Prospector he will be a breeding hall of famer. If you haven't noticed I am enamored with Mr. Prospector. His stamp on breeding is amazing and his brief racing career was impressive. He ran 6 furlongs in 1:07 4/5 in 72 or 73! Mr Prospector --------------- Winnings: 14 Starts: 7 - 4 - 2, $112,171 Gravesend H., Whirlaway H. Foaled January 28, 1970 NTR Gulfstream, 6f 1:07 4/5 NTR Garden State, 6f 1:08 3/5 2nd: Firecracker H. (G3), Carter H. (G2), Royal Poinciana S. 3r:d Paumonok H. (G3) Wiki Mr Prospector - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Prospector
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:23 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Pacific Classic tomorrow. A decent race but there have been better renewals of this. Coming up with excuses for each of the top Beyer horses I have settled on Hard Aces. Took him awhile to get to his top Beyer potential. I had him in the Gold Cup on the strength of his late run and how that race set up. They keep Espinoza on - or Espinoza wont get off - after losing 3 of 4 races together. Runs well off the layoff.
I can find faults for almost everyone here except Hard Aces. Beholder is the one to beat but is not running figures that she should be. Bayern seems to have soured after the BC Classic. Bejarano on instead of Garcia is a negative. Imperative scares me but he almost never runs off the layoff and appears to be going backwards. Catch A Flight seems the most fit horse but he has choked going this distance with perfect setups. Hoppertunity is not what he was - something is up with him. Red Vine looks good but why run at a mile and step up to a mile and a sixteenth and then back to a mile - and now a mile and a quarter? Just strange placement.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:36 am |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
What a performance from Beholder, it has to be the best performance of the year. That performance puts her up with the best fillies in the last twenty years, no doubt. They went super fast but she could still go under 2 mins , lets hope she makes the Classic.
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Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:26 am |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
We finally got to see Jess's dream, it looks like Rachel Alexandra first horse has some ability. Got tailed off early on but ran on fantastically to win going away. Will be one to keep a eye on going forward.
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Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:01 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
ghostzapper74 wrote: We finally got to see Jess's dream, it looks like Rachel Alexandra first horse has some ability. Got tailed off early on but ran on fantastically to win going away. Will be one to keep a eye on going forward. I watched that race. Jess's Dream was just hitting top speed at the wire. Quite a performance.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:51 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Travers Day. American Pharoah gets no pace pressure today. Might see a blow out performance. Texas Red is coming into the race perfectly and will offer a good challenge I think. Upstart will improve nicely I predict. Frosted hasn't worked in 9 days since a bullet work on the 20th. Seems a bad sign to me. Here goes my picks for all the races...
1.Request 2.Hundred Years 3.Tango Time 4.Tale Of S'avall 5.Vigilante 6.Sheer Drama 7.Unbridled Forever 8.Loose On The Town 9.Bourbon Courage 10.Flintshire 11.American Pharoah/Texas Red/Upstart 12.Night Song 13.Oklahoma Den
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:57 am |
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mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
American Pharoah has basically perfect conditions to run a big one. Today is a fully exciting card filled with champions, Triple Crown winners, and Tale of Verve. First, let me go over my selections in the Travers. American Pharoah seems to be the clear winner. The only horse that could pressure him is Texas Red if they decide to send him. But American Pharoah would still be on top down the stretch while Texas Red would be all tired out. Keen Ice has been chipping away at American Pharoah his last few starts and should love this distance. Expect him to run big. Smart Transition is my upsetter. He won the Curlin Stakes over a very slow pace, something that he might get here with no pressure on American Pharoah. Could be the surprise in the money finisher. My Selections: W: American Pharoah P: Keen Ice S: Smart Transition ----------------------------- As for the rest of the card: Race 1: Grey Wizard Race 2: Midnight Surfer Race 3: Coming Attraction Race 4: Eternal Bird Race 5: America’s Kitten Race 6: Untapable Race 7: Unbridled Forever Race 8: March Race 9: Wildcat Red Race 10: Flintshire Race 11: American Pharoah Race 12: Tepin Race 13: Oklahoma Den
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:14 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Quote: 3.Tango Time 4.Tale Of S'avall 5.Vigilante 6.Sheer Drama 7.Unbridled Forever Back to Earth after 5 winners in a row. Longshot Loose On the Town barely crossed the finish line. I liked him a lot. I like Wildcat Red too BUT why no Paco Lopes? He has ridden other horses with chances in other races today at Saratoga but he is riding a sub par card at Parx today.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:55 pm |
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ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4107 Location: Wales
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
SiriusChill wrote: Quote: 3.Tango Time 4.Tale Of S'avall 5.Vigilante 6.Sheer Drama 7.Unbridled Forever Back to Earth after 5 winners in a row. Longshot Loose On the Town barely crossed the finish line. I liked him a lot. I like Wildcat Red too BUT why no Paco Lopes? He has ridden other horses with chances in other races today at Saratoga but he is riding a sub par card at Parx today. It's the start of the big festival at Parx , lots of stupid money for the next 8 weeks and perhaps he's gone there for the money and to ride Souper Colossal in the Smarty Jones. I've been watching Parx on my computer and Social Inclusion ( good 3yo from last year) made his comeback and he won easily and he's by the same sire as AP and he's also got a lovely stride so perhaps it's the sire that's giving his son's the great stride that they have. Not sure what to make of the Kings Bishop because the first and second were Ellis Park shippers Will be interesting to see what the time is in the Forego. Can AP get near the 2 min course record. Hopefully he can go under the 2.01 because the race course is running super fast.
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:13 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I missed the race but I tell you who impresses me - Vigilante for Wayne Catalano. He has a strange habit of showing some early speed and then falling way back and then making an impressive rally. He is stakes quality if they can get his mind on business.
WOW. Flintshire is poetry in motion. He cut that corner on the last turn and just slingshotted down the stretch. That ride and trip was a work of art.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:12 pm |
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