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 Kentucky Derby 2016 
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Kentucky Downs opening day picks...

1. Husky Clipper
2. Congrats Honey
3. Hadrian
4. Hoosier Zip
5. One More Strike
6. Wayward Kitten
7. Andreya's Reward
8. Cajun Schill
9. Tourist
10. Airoforce

My thoughts on Jeteffect and that race which is 6 furlongs btw. I wouldn't touch him with that breeding and obscure trainer. I do like the horse totally bred for turf sprinting - Hoosier Zip. Not many better at getting top class turf sprinters than City Zip. His mother Mocha Queen was a turf sprinting beast in stakes races. Her first three foals were by Pulpit, Giant's Causeway and Candy Ride - all duds. Finally they breed her to a sire who was like her - a turf sprinter. A couple of modest works and he is ready to run? I'm hoping he is.


The Woodward - a butt load of speed here and I will go against Liam's Map. Effinex continues his rise to the top.

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Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:41 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
SiriusChill wrote:
Kentucky Downs opening day picks...


My thoughts on Jeteffect and that race which is 6 furlongs btw. I wouldn't touch him with that breeding and obscure trainer. I do like the horse totally bred for turf sprinting - Hoosier Zip. Not many better at getting top class turf sprinters than City Zip. His mother Mocha Queen was a turf sprinting beast in stakes races. Her first three foals were by Pulpit, Giant's Causeway and Candy Ride - all duds. Finally they breed her to a sire who was like her - a turf sprinter. A couple of modest works and he is ready to run? I'm hoping he is.


The Woodward - a butt load of speed here and I will go against Liam's Map. Effinex continues his rise to the top.


It all ties in together, Ghostzapper and City Zip are half brothers ( mum Baby Zip).

Ghostzappers horse in this race is Entrancing by Incredulous, who was Incredulous last horse by City Zip who is a 3yo over here called Mighty Zip and is rated 80. What does it mean nobody knows but there's some family bragging rights on the line, come on Entrancing.

Another thing I've found out is that Incredulous best son is Sir Gerry who was a pretty good horse over here and guess who Sir Gerry was by Carson City who is City Zip Dad. Thinking about it I'm more confident in Entrancing now.

I hope Liam's Map wins because that was a outstanding run last time out, they went stupid fast and he almost hung on. I just worry it might have taken the edge of him. I agree if he doesn't run his race then Effinex should win, still improving like his dad( Mineshaft) did. He's the horse that made me fall in love with American racing, the Ex Brit who would dominate in 2003.

And come on Rachel's Valentina , make mum proud.


Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:31 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Florent Geroux is just owning the Downs today.

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Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
SiriusChill wrote:
Florent Geroux is just owning the Downs today.


Add another one, Tourist was very impressive in that considering that was his first start for almost a year.


Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:37 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Well we've seen some lovely performances today.

Rachels Valentina done her mum proud, going to take a lot of beating in the Breeders Cup.

Liams Map just showed he's top class and will make them all go in the Classic, the race is really shaping up to be a good one.

And we might have seen a good grass 2yo in Highland Sky, won very easily for Mr Tagg.


Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:43 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I tried to find why Tourist took so long off since last year but couldn't find anything. I settled on him just waltzing on the front end and putting away Ward's talented but distance limited entries. Send Tourist to California Mott.

I expect the other jockeys and trainers are going to watch the tape and see where Florent was putting his horses today. He obviously figured the right path on that unique track. Next race day at the Downs his horses will be over bet.

Liams Map had it easy and ran a great race. He will be hard to beat in the BC Classic.

Before Barclay Tagg moved his operations to New York he was a top trainer here in Maryland for many years. Turf horses were what he was all about. A very classy and smart trainer.

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Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:28 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
One more thing - last night I looked at the Kentucky Downs site for some info on the track and how it plays. I found this info very helpful...

Quote:
Speed, for example, has a significant advantage in the races run at distances less than a mile. Last year, nearly half the winners, or 8 of 18, led virtually from the start in these sprints. And only three horses rallied inside the eighth-pole to win a sprint.

That might seem strange since the run down the lane at Kentucky Downs takes in one of the longer homestretches found on any turf course in North America. It’s about a quarter-mile. But, and here’s the rub, the stretch run to the wire slopes uphill, which tends to compromise the strength of late-runners. At the same time, in those sprints, the run to the turn is downhill, which only emphasizes the speedsters’ advantage.

The situation changes at a mile, or a mile and 70 yards, where the initial run down the backstretch is uphill. Only three winners led throughout at this distance last year, and all three were able to take advantage of a soporific opening half-mile (49.0 seconds, 49. 64 and 49. 65). But the typical winner rallied from about five lengths back after the opening half-mile, and a few were able to rally from far back, such as Drama Drama, who overcame an 11-length deficit to win, and Miz Ida, who charged from 8 1/2 lengths back to take the Kentucky Downs Ladies’ Turf Stakes.

No matter the distance, though, the winner usually makes his decisive move in the expansive, sweeping turn that propels the horses into the stretch. In sprints, the broad turn allows speedsters to continue their momentum unchecked; and in longer races, it allows the late runners, even encourages them, to launch their bids early.


http://www.kentuckydowns.com/live-racing/handicapping-at-kentucky-downs/

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Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:40 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
For my first time handicapping Kentucky Downs, I thought I did a decent job. Albeit most of my handicapping was by pedigree and connections, but I hit a few horse and got an ice cold trifecta once, so I'm happy. Sad that I didn't get to see what Jeteffect could do. I added this one to my Virtual Stable.

On another note, tomorrow I will be making my first trip to the track in Erie, Presque Isle Downs. I originally planned Labor Day weekend to go to Erie with my friends and hang out there (and go to the racetrack, obviously), but had not idea that Sunday is the Presque Isle Mile until a few days ago. Presque Isle is a track that I have been dying to go to and am very excited to add it to my short list of tracks visited. Also, I made my Pure Speed Figure sheets for the Sunday card, found here: http://www.mediafire.com/view/hl9xal3d66z9ncz/Presque_Isle_Downs_-_9-6-15_-_Thoroughbred.pdf. Should be a fun time tomorrow.

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Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:14 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Have fun MJ. I didn't know people went to Erie to hang out. What is in Erie?

I handicapped the Mile - I really like the looks of Florida Won. Generally speed rules at Presque Isle but looking at the track bias stats in the Brisnet pp's and lately speed is not holding. Florida Won is at the top form of his career at 4 and can only get better. Looks really tough here. Viva Lad loves the track and his last race was a perfect prep for this.

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Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:28 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Have fun at Presque, I heard it's in the middle of nowhere.

Songbird was awesome, she looks a monster. She reminds me of AP from this time last year, looks in a different league. The 2yo old fillies look a better bunch than the colts, though they get the chance to shine on Monday in the Del Mar Futurity ( come on Mt Veeder) and the Hopeful.


Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:21 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
We just got to Erie and asked ourselves the same question... What is there to do in Erie? Apparently there is an amusement park and beaches with imported sand from Florida.

And I think Are You Kidding Me is definitely the class and loves synthetic. I looked at Florida Won before and thought a possibility. Choctaw Chuck is my longshot play for the Mile. Should be a fun time at the track (and worth the 3 hour drive).

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Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:18 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Patrick Husbands sure was confident on the rail there. He knew his horse had a killer late kick. Florida Won is in rock solid form now.

I like to use the free Brisnet PP's that can be found for most races. One of the features I like the most is the Bris Race Shapes which I have highlighted in the screenshot. The numbers under the 1c and 2c columns are the 2 calls in the first half of the race. + numbers being faster than the average for the class of race and - being slower. The LP column is the number for that horse in the last half of the race. Florida Won's last race had a -5 (slow) first quarter and a -2 (slow BUT faster than first) second quarter and then if you look at that LP number 105 and compare it to the numbers to the left of it 76 - 85 ~ it shows a horse who rallied hugely into a slow pace and was much faster at the end.

Image

The race shapes for each race are extremely helpful.

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Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:58 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
Here goes - picks for a bunch of stakes races across the country today...

Presque Isle Downs / Presque Isle Downs Masters - Leigh Court
-----
Saratoga / Hopeful - Sallislaw
Saratoga / Bernard Baruch - Charming Kitten
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Del Mar / Del Mar Futurity - Swipe
Del Mar / Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf - Jakaby Jade
Del Mar / Pirate's Bounty - Melatonin
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Parx / Turf Monster - Ben's Cat
Parx / Greenwood Cup - Our Caravan
-----
Ruidoso Downs / Ruidoso Downs Thoroughbred Championship - Isn't He Clever
-----
Monmouth / Lighthouse Stakes - Blue Violet

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Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:05 am
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
This is what I think will happen. Happy Labour Day.

Presque Isle Downs / Presque Isle Downs Masters - Living The Life
-----
Saratoga / Hopeful - Magna Light
Saratoga / Bernard Baruch - Constitution
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Del Mar / Del Mar Futurity - Mt Veeder
Del Mar / Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf - One Last Shot
Del Mar / Pirate's Bounty -Big Macher
-----
Parx / Turf Monster - Pure Sensation
Parx / Greenwood Cup - Turco Bravo
-----
Ruidoso Downs / Ruidoso Downs Thoroughbred Championship - Isn't He Clever
-----
Monmouth / Lighthouse Stakes - Blue Violet


Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:47 pm
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Post Re: Kentucky Derby 2016
I'll give the Labor Day stakes races a try. Included two QH races from Ruidoso since that card is where I put a lot of focus on.

Presque Isle Downs / Presque Isle Downs Masters - Miss Mischief
-----
Saratoga / Hopeful - Magna Light
Saratoga / Bernard Baruch - Vyjack
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Del Mar / Del Mar Futurity - Nyquist
Del Mar / Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf - One Last Shot
Del Mar / Pirate's Bounty - Big Macher
-----
Parx / Turf Monster - Ben's Cat
Parx / Greenwood Cup - Our Caravan
-----
Ruidoso Downs / Ruidoso Downs Thoroughbred Championship - Bourbon Sense
Ruidoso Downs / All American Juvenile - Jess B Heroic
Ruidoso Downs / All American Futurity - First Valiant Sign
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Monmouth / Lighthouse Stakes - Mei Ling
-----
Also, two huge Pick 6 carryovers at Saratoga, so I thought I'd try to hit them:
-$2 Saratoga Pick 6 Rc 6-11: 2,7 w 4 w 2,5,10 w 1,2,3,7 w 1 w 2,8,10 ($144)
-$.20 Gulfstream Pick 6 Rc 6-11: 1,5 w 4,6,7 w 2,5,6,9 w 1,3,5,6,8 w 1,9 w 9,13 ($96)

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Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:50 pm
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