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bosra sham
Handicapper
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 311
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 Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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Yankee worst bet in the world.
Stake 11 bets, 50% of your horses win, collect on 1 winning bet.
No wonder Bookies love em.
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pjrhodes1970
Group 3 winner
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 610
Location: Monaghan Ireland
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pjrhodes1970
Group 3 winner
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 610
Location: Monaghan Ireland
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| Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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i hate the yankee bet too i only do them with short price favs so agree with you totally
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bosra sham
Handicapper
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 311
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| Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| pjrhodes1970 wrote: | | doesnt matter they will all win |
Probably around 8/1 they all win. Far from a certainty. |
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pjrhodes1970
Group 3 winner
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 610
Location: Monaghan Ireland
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| Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| bosra sham wrote: | | pjrhodes1970 wrote: | | doesnt matter they will all win |
Probably around 8/1 they all win. Far from a certainty. |
near certainty
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bosra sham
Handicapper
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 311
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| Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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In fact at current prices it around an 8.2% chance of winning (about 11/1).
I like my certainties to have more than an 8% chance of winning!! Good luck though  |
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ESAGENT4
Handicapper
Joined: 18 Dec 2009
Posts: 109
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| Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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As an ex bookie, bosra is correct a yankee is the most profitable bet for a bookmaker...
But good luck pjr, i agree they all have good chances.... |
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mwesty1
Group 1 winner
Joined: 08 Dec 2009
Posts: 1136
Location: WOLVERHAMPTON
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| Yes especially with A lucky 15 with most bookies you can get treble odds with 1 winner so even this is far superior to yankee. Love the fact l had tenner e/w on get me out of here at 12/1 just incase they left him in the supreme, and as luck has it they have and is now 6/1. So with my big antepost bet on Dunguib cant see past these 2 so im well happy |
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DavieJones
Handicapper
Joined: 17 Nov 2008
Posts: 163
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Seems like you are counting your winnings before the race ? |
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mwesty1
Group 1 winner
Joined: 08 Dec 2009
Posts: 1136
Location: WOLVERHAMPTON
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| DavieJones wrote: | | Seems like you are counting your winnings before the race ? |
YES sure am Dunguib although first race first day is an absolute racing certainty. If you aint been convinced this year which everyone should be but look at the demolition job last year in the bumper. Put some good horses to shame and do have faith in the jockey after his last win. |
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sharper
Selling plater
Joined: 21 Apr 2008
Posts: 18
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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I have a few for the Festival...
Tuesday
Get Me Out Of Here - (my E/W Nap - have backed him ante post at 10's and 12's) in the Supreme Novices. Have looked at the race and can't get him out of the frame. Leaving Dunguib alone...he may well win but still not convinced about jockey and he's short enough for the most competitive novice hurdle of the season.
Wednesday
Quel Esprit - Still think the 5's available at present is a good bet in the Neptune. Mullins puts him up as his best chance of the week, and thats good enough for me.
Quantitativeeasing - Coral Cup. Got beat the last day, but that race turned into a sprint up the home straight. Prior form very useful and 2m5f with the hill will suit well. Into 8's now.
Thursday
No stand out selection but...
In the Jewson, I don't fancy two of the market leaders Rivaliste 7's (Paul Nicholls) or The Hollinwell 8's (Ferdy Murhpy) at all and will probably look to lay both.
Friday (have took a real interest in the Albert Bartlett and I'm not totally convinced about how its priced up)
Kennel Hill 66's and Restless Harry 7's - Albert Bartlett. Firstly Restlass Harry has some very good form and his latest win at Cheltenham in Grade 2 company over C&D on what is likely to be similar ground is rock solid. He won going away that day and will have the stamina to out stay many of the opposition, which is always vital in the Albert Bartlett. If he was with a more 'fashionable' yard he would be around the 7/2 mark, so at 7's he is a definate bet for me. Kennel Hill is a 66/1 shot but runs consistently well, and is certain to be staying on up the hill. His runs on flats tracks, such as a game third at Newbury suggest 3 miles at Cheltenham will play to his strengths. On the face of it his run last time at Haydock wasn't great, but things didn't go right that day...including runn into the running rail. His run at Cheltenham in december was encouraging, and although he is yet to win in the UK! at 66/1 he is worth a small e/w bet if he runs.
Last edited by sharper on Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:17 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mwesty1
Group 1 winner
Joined: 08 Dec 2009
Posts: 1136
Location: WOLVERHAMPTON
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| sharper wrote: |
Quel Esprit - Still think the 5's available at present is a good bet in the Neptune. Mullins puts him up as his best chance of the week, and thats good enough for me. |
Agree that if Mullins says that he thinks something of him but cant really explain his defeat. Rite of passage looks strong to me. |
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HurricaneRun
Group 2 winner
Joined: 22 Feb 2010
Posts: 717
Location: Newcastle England
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 10:32 pm Post subject: |
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| i think its unfair to doubt dunguib based on the jockey. we all saw what happened to mccoy on denman!! i feel sorry for o'connell because if he loses people will probably blame him and if he wins people will say they expected it to, therefore he cant win really. but as to date he has done his job on dunguib and i cant understand the doubt over this horse in all honesty. Yes the field size is likely to be huge and it is a competitive race, but dunguib motored past horses like rite of passage and quel espirit in last years bumper and ran away from them without seriously pushing him on. these horses are being strongly tipped for success this year and dunguib has gone from strength to strength, so how is he not an absolute banker?? the thought of menorah and blackstairmountain being high up in the betting makes me laugh as well, he'l eat them alive. |
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DavieJones
Handicapper
Joined: 17 Nov 2008
Posts: 163
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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Too many unexposed horses for Dunguib to be called a certainty,especially since he has done most of his racing on soft/heavy.
PEDDLERS CROSS @ 20/1 looks the value pick for me(although officially rated 8lbs lower than Dunguib).....4 starts/4 wins,including an easy 16 length win in a grade 2 novice hurdle last time. |
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sharper
Selling plater
Joined: 21 Apr 2008
Posts: 18
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | i think its unfair to doubt dunguib based on the jockey. we all saw what happened to mccoy on denman!! i feel sorry for o'connell because if he loses people will probably blame him and if he wins people will say they expected it to, therefore he cant win really. but as to date he has done his job on dunguib and i cant understand the doubt over this horse in all honesty. Yes the field size is likely to be huge and it is a competitive race, but dunguib motored past horses like rite of passage and quel espirit in last years bumper and ran away from them without seriously pushing him on. these horses are being strongly tipped for success this year and dunguib has gone from strength to strength, so how is he not an absolute banker?? the thought of menorah and blackstairmountain being high up in the betting makes me laugh as well, he'l eat them alive. |
He could well romp home and make the 4/5 on offer still look like a massive price. However the race isn't run on paper and I agree about there being some potentially smart horses who are relatively unexposed. It's just personal opinion regarding O'Connell. He is not one of the top jockeys, has only been a pro for the last 9/10 months and lacks big race experience. I would be more confident backing Dunguib with someone like Walsh on board, however the price would be 4/6, so I guess O'Connell being on board is factored into the price slightly. |
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