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 ASK THE HANDICAPPER 
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Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
John I don't know what you want to accomplish by carrying this on, you asked Doug for an explanation he gave you that but you don't want to see it,mate this ain't the real world this is an online league run by volunteers who give hours and hours of their free time every week(you and doug)included in that its done for the enjoyment of others and the fact that you single out one horse in 100's seems very petty you really need to drop this now as Doug has done what you asked whether you agree with it or not this is the way its done.


Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:26 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
ghostzapper74 wrote:

Now lets get real!!!

Lets look at some proper races and not fantasy land.



Problem being John we are in fantasy land..... Its a game and although we try and mirror the real life races in the league, thats about as close as we get to reality.

As the previous handicapper (who I did not agree with) stated, if you dont like it, dont run a flat stable!

Anyway, the two of you can agree to disagree.


Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:28 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Stu i'll drop it . U right if u don't like it don't enter. :D :D


Last edited by ghostzapper74 on Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:46 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
***


Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:52 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
jalupen wrote:
clear and insightful Doug though as I've stated previously I thought you were doing a great job as I could see the way you worked and the fact that the race in question where the first 9 home in a 0-100 were covered by 3l in my book is pretty decent h/capping

John I really hope this helps you understand how Doug does things and you can both move on

as 2 respected veterans of this forum you should be setting an example to the newer members not creating problems, this is not a drama club this is a forum for adults so sort it out!


Thank you Steve.


Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:25 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 1:50 am
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Location: W. Yorkshire
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
I'm not sure I understand why a horse finishing 7th should be put up in the ratings when you drew a line at the 6th horse in a handicap. Sorry for beating on a what should be a dead subject.
I haven't checked the race myself but unless the horse previously finished well in a pattern race, was distressed or was put over a different distance then all horses behind your selected horse in the handicap should surely lose weight/rating, regarding the weight/rating they carried in the race. Just a little confused! I must add I really don't care and neither should anyone else as I believe most of us enter group horses into the league and as we know group horses are not handiccapers and most often in game don't perform as expected with any amount of weight difference when entered in a handicap. I have many 2m+ horses in my current flat game who cannot win a 0-80 or any other similar race, I have to enter them in a group/listed race to qualify them for the Aussie handicaps and I always win them and they will easily win a G3 etc. so.....


Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:40 am
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Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:44 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
NPG319 wrote:
Ok - this post is to explain to all trainers my method of handicapping for the league.
I will use the screenshot titled "Pond-Scum" above as the example of how I came to my ratings.

First off - most people have an opinion on how it should be done and it's unlikely there will be matching methods.
Basically I equate 1 length to 5 rating points. I work with rating points only because I only understand kilograms/grams and not pounds etc.

For the average hcp winner I rate them +7 pts - sometimes 8 if it was a handy win and sometimes 10pts if it was a very easy win.
I then grade from there accordingly.
Before I start rating I look at the results and in the example above it was a 0-110 race. So I look to see if there is a horse I can use as my marker. A horse than ran up to it's rating.
In the example above that horse I deemed to be Splicing Polecat, so I left it's rating at 100.
The winner I gave +7
2nd - +6 - being 1/4 L away.
3rd - +5 although being a head away I did contemplate giving it +6 as well.
4th - +2 because it was 3/4 of a length away. (remember I use 5pts per length but horse margins are in quarters so I err either way but usually on the lower point scale)
5th - +2 was Lingo and at a sht-hd away which is basically not much I awarded it 2pts - the same as 4th placing.
6th - is my race marker horse Splicing Polecat.
7th - was 1 length away. This horse raced on 90pts A CLEAR 10pts UNDER my marker horse so I should have awarded that horse +5 (1L = 5pts) because it clearly raced under it's
actual ability. But because I like to err in favour of the trainer in trying to find a winner I only gave +3 (that was in hindsight a mistake)
8th - was Treasure Dine who was rated 100pts but clearly didn't run up to my marker horse on 100pts. It was also 3/4L away from 7th so I gave it -3. I probably should have
given it -5 but I mirrored 7th placing's rating (my error)
9th - ran a good race rated at 87 which I deemed was under-rated for the result. I rolled it up 3pts to mirror it's result. A very minor penalty.
10th - Hanghu Isengard was 1 and 3/4L away from 9th(also rated at 100pts). My dilemma was do I give it a -8 rating or do I keep it in line with the rating of horses above? So that is what I did and gave it a -5 rating. Vinny's Hanghu horses are a decent breed. Giving it -5 it will be very competitive in it's following races 'IF' placed well (which they usually are).

I AM NOT HERE TO PENALISE HORSES - I am here to rate them so hopefully they win their next race. My method IS consistent right across the board and evolves with minor tweaks as I learn more. I DO NOT give huge penalties and if a horse/s perform poorly at their rating point I WILL -10 or more to get it/them back into winning form.
In saying that if your horse wins a week 1 or 2 maiden or is a first start maiden winner in week 7 it will be awarded 110pts - same for any Listed win, 110pts.
If your horse is a Group winner - it will most probably stay at 110 or more for the rest of the season unless it strings together weeks of poor results in Group races.
I have seen that some early Group 1 form hasn't stood up and those horses have had the ratings reduced.
Same goes if your handicap horse finishes close up in a Group race - it will get a ratings hit - although in recent weeks I have been lenient to those horses by giving them the benefit of the doubt.

I am more than happy to answer any respectful queries during the race week about my ratings - which I have done so recently.

But remember this - EACH RACE DAY it takes me around 2 or more hours to watch the start of most races to make sure no horses having been burnt by a wide draw and sometimes I watch into the next turn to make sure I am making the right decision and then jot down their names - then the final 3f - then to go into TOM and rate the runners. Then it takes approx. 75mins to then enter those ratings into the system(a whole race day). I do all this at work so at times it takes even longer while I deal with customers.
Times this by 3 each week.
So to ask me about a rating from three weeks ago is going to be more hassle than it's worth for me to answer UNLESS the league is going to pay me a decent pay rate to do the job. That isn't going to happen so what you pay for is what you get. Generosity and generosity goes further with politeness.

I stand by my ratings for the above race as being correct.
No horse or trainer has been 'ear marked' and any thinking in that vain is pure and utter nonsense!

If any trainer is interested in how I deal with Listed and Group race ratings, let me know and I will put a post up.



Doug i think you are doing a great job, there is always going to be 1 or 2 that disagree.

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Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:53 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Quote:
Doug i think you are doing a great job, there is always going to be 1 or 2 that disagree.


Thanks Ryan.


Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:38 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Doing a great job with the Comm's.
Doing a great job with the Handicapping.

Surely Doug can squeeze in some race running! :lol:

Seriously folks, the League is very lucky to have the likes of Doug, Gray and all the others who volunteer their time and who without there simply would be no League.
Before you hit the "SUBMIT" button take a moment to stop and think what impact your words will have on others.
I suspect most trainers are adults so no one is impressed with childish behavior.


Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:52 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Jango wrote:
Doing a great job with the Comm's.
Doing a great job with the Handicapping.

Surely Doug can squeeze in some race running! :lol:

Seriously folks, the League is very lucky to have the likes of Doug, Gray and all the others who volunteer their time and who without there simply would be no League.
Before you hit the "SUBMIT" button take a moment to stop and think what impact your words will have on others.
I suspect most trainers are adults so no one is impressed with childish behavior.



Thanks Jango - and race running is off the list lol


Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:53 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Doing a fine job Doug.

Helping with your free time for our enjoyment with the Comms and Handicapping.

Thank you


Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:34 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Hemz wrote:
Doing a fine job Doug.

Helping with your free time for our enjoyment with the Comms and Handicapping.

Thank you


Thanks mate.


Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:23 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
RACE 19 THE PERSONAL TOUCHES HCP

Huma Degas, Frozen Dark, Three Wishes & Starport I have deemed as non runners for being caught wide and no rating change.


Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:46 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
RACE 40 THE WESTY STAKES

Always Dreaming, Bunratty Span, Shere Moss & Grin Holiday I have deemed as non runners and no change to their ratings.


Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:30 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
R11 RACING POST HCP

Renegader, Roses Deco & Tirol Fabulous I have deemed as non runners for being caught wide and no rating change.

R17 BETFRED MD LEG 4

Frozen Dark, Bunratty Span, Always Dreaming, Starqueen, Two Smashing, Cabin Fever, Graphic Spoken, Thunda Queen & Milano Matrix.
I have deemed as non runners for being caught wide and no rating change.


Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:11 am
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