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 ASK THE HANDICAPPER 
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
R35 SPRING SPREE G3

I have graded it as a Listed race as the field wasn't that strong and I feel I'd be doing the winner and place getters a misjustice by grading it as a normal G3 race.

The same with the restricted Listed race - I have gone easy with the ratings on that race as well.


Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:59 am
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Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 2:07 pm
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Location: Redhill
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Before I start - Sorry Vinny lol

Doug can you take a look at some of the ratings as per below please? I was looking at Race 15, Keissi Hai Autumn Stakes

Is the rating of Toronto Knot correct, and is the rating of Alysson Felix correct - For example

Alysson Felix

Between weeks 8 and 12 she didn't drop in rating at all from 80, despite being 11th (0-110), 7th (0-85), 11th (0-90), 16th (Listed - no rating move for this I accept is fair for being Listed), 11th (0-85). I accept the drop from 80-70 now is fair and everything relating to my other horse Creme Carnation is fair having been dropped from mid 110's to 60 (sigh). But for Alysson to not have been touched for four weeks straight isn't really giving her much of a chance!

Toronto Knot

Surely this is a mistake right? (Once again sorry Vinny lol), over the same period of Alysson, has gone from 85 to 45 despite being 2nd and 5th in 0-110 company and then a fair drop of 5lb for the run in week 11 but has now been dropped 33lbs for finishing last over 6f (a distance 2f outside of optimal for the horse) I mean surely something isn't right there!

Don't normally want to raise anything over things like this and think you are doing a good job, this just glared out to me and I've felt hard done by on Alysson anyway so it really glared out to me lol!


Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:24 pm
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Selling plater

Joined: Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:15 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
I accidentally entered Mebsuta Norma into a 2m group chase last week, the horse is a 3m handicap chaser. Her rating has been dropped from 127 - 117, its probably best if you restore the rating back to 127.


Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:00 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
nick_driver wrote:
Before I start - Sorry Vinny lol

Doug can you take a look at some of the ratings as per below please? I was looking at Race 15, Keissi Hai Autumn Stakes

Is the rating of Toronto Knot correct, and is the rating of Alysson Felix correct - For example

Alysson Felix

Between weeks 8 and 12 she didn't drop in rating at all from 80, despite being 11th (0-110), 7th (0-85), 11th (0-90), 16th (Listed - no rating move for this I accept is fair for being Listed), 11th (0-85). I accept the drop from 80-70 now is fair and everything relating to my other horse Creme Carnation is fair having been dropped from mid 110's to 60 (sigh). But for Alysson to not have been touched for four weeks straight isn't really giving her much of a chance!

Toronto Knot

Surely this is a mistake right? (Once again sorry Vinny lol), over the same period of Alysson, has gone from 85 to 45 despite being 2nd and 5th in 0-110 company and then a fair drop of 5lb for the run in week 11 but has now been dropped 33lbs for finishing last over 6f (a distance 2f outside of optimal for the horse) I mean surely something isn't right there!

Don't normally want to raise anything over things like this and think you are doing a good job, this just glared out to me and I've felt hard done by on Alysson anyway so it really glared out to me lol!


With Toronto Knot - I don't have time to check if any horses have run outside of their optimum distance - I just run on the faith of each trainer doing the right thing.
if a horse finishes badly I check to see if it was injured and if not I then give it's rating a fair chop to get it back into winning form.

Alysson Felix - I will have to look into it before I give you an answer.

One of the things that makes it hard doing the hcp'ing is only weight carried and rating shows up when doing the ratings in TOM. If all horses previous starts showed up as well (like reading a race form) and the ability to be able to click on the horse to investigate previous performances would have made a hell of a difference.
With some luck the race kit will be able to do the handicapping from next season.


Last edited by NPG319 on Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:56 am
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Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am
Posts: 2573
Location: South Australia
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Nick - I just looked into Alysson Felix and it doesn't make sense to me - I believe that your horse has picked up a bug or glitch from either week 8 or 9 and it's rating isn't changing.


Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:06 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Thanks Doug, just one of those things, I'll leave it with you and if she runs off 70 or runs off lower then no issue either way.

Appreciate the response on the other horse I know it's not easy and things could be done to make it easier, I have previously done the handicapping myself and know it isn't easy. Vinny hasn't done anything out of the ordinary by only dropping it two furlongs, that's fine, I do it myself if it's the only solution to the horse getting a run. I'd happily take a 33lb drop on any of my horses though :lol: :lol:


Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:53 am
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Location: South Australia
Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
nick_driver wrote:
Thanks Doug, just one of those things, I'll leave it with you and if she runs off 70 or runs off lower then no issue either way.

Appreciate the response on the other horse I know it's not easy and things could be done to make it easier, I have previously done the handicapping myself and know it isn't easy. Vinny hasn't done anything out of the ordinary by only dropping it two furlongs, that's fine, I do it myself if it's the only solution to the horse getting a run. I'd happily take a 33lb drop on any of my horses though :lol: :lol:


I think only Gray can change it's rating now.


Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:20 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:35 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
I notice that horses ratings have been changed after week 13's results, does this mean returning horses will start next season on this rating?


Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:34 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Dhughes wrote:
I notice that horses ratings have been changed after week 13's results, does this mean returning horses will start next season on this rating?




Yes they start with the last rating it had when you upload a older version Tom will give it a automatic rating it has in the Website for it you will have to change ypur horse file to that rating before you upload if not i will do it when i get the files to Check.

Gray

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Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:54 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
NPG319 wrote:
nick_driver wrote:
Before I start - Sorry Vinny lol

Doug can you take a look at some of the ratings as per below please? I was looking at Race 15, Keissi Hai Autumn Stakes

Is the rating of Toronto Knot correct, and is the rating of Alysson Felix correct - For example

Alysson Felix

Between weeks 8 and 12 she didn't drop in rating at all from 80, despite being 11th (0-110), 7th (0-85), 11th (0-90), 16th (Listed - no rating move for this I accept is fair for being Listed), 11th (0-85). I accept the drop from 80-70 now is fair and everything relating to my other horse Creme Carnation is fair having been dropped from mid 110's to 60 (sigh). But for Alysson to not have been touched for four weeks straight isn't really giving her much of a chance!

Toronto Knot

Surely this is a mistake right? (Once again sorry Vinny lol), over the same period of Alysson, has gone from 85 to 45 despite being 2nd and 5th in 0-110 company and then a fair drop of 5lb for the run in week 11 but has now been dropped 33lbs for finishing last over 6f (a distance 2f outside of optimal for the horse) I mean surely something isn't right there!

Don't normally want to raise anything over things like this and think you are doing a good job, this just glared out to me and I've felt hard done by on Alysson anyway so it really glared out to me lol!


With Toronto Knot - I don't have time to check if any horses have run outside of their optimum distance - I just run on the faith of each trainer doing the right thing.
if a horse finishes badly I check to see if it was injured and if not I then give it's rating a fair chop to get it back into winning form.

Alysson Felix - I will have to look into it before I give you an answer.

One of the things that makes it hard doing the hcp'ing is only weight carried and rating shows up when doing the ratings in TOM. If all horses previous starts showed up as well (like reading a race form) and the ability to be able to click on the horse to investigate previous performances would have made a hell of a difference.
With some luck the race kit will be able to do the handicapping from next season.


Ha no worries, I did think it was a little low myself, I don't keep as track of my handicaps week by week though, especially on my week 1 uploads as they're so poor. Guess it didn't matter as it finished pretty much last again :)

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Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:08 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Are the ratings for week 2 done? If so, did the kit handicap my horse and decide my first week winner who earned a 115 rating and then finished next to last in a group 1 in week 2 still gets a 115 rating? I'm confused. Also just in case you haven't seen my previous post (last time I post this I swear)...

Quote:
I hate being a pain in the butt but Single Girl still ran as the top weight with a rating of 80 this week and is now rated 78. Can this be sorted please?

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Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:00 am
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Just a quick update I've gone through the first days races now. Most races fine, couple of horses dropped a couple of pound at most as I felt they hadn't run races. The only issues I seen were the last 2 races

Race 12 Anchorage Barari was raised from 60-87 for a 3l win in a 0-70. Although I think it was mighty impressive, I felt it was slightly too much so dropped to 80, therefore the 2nd an 3rd I dropped a couple of pound too as they were treated very harshly

Race 13 - This looked very harsh, practically a blanket finish an the first 4 were raised way too much, think the winner went from 75-85 or even more, I changed it to 82, and adjusted the ones close in behind similar amounts..


If anyone has any issues please don't hesitate to put in here. Although I work as an odds compiler an trader, handicapping is something I've never really bothered with myself so I'm learning on the job an don't mind any criticism (friendly please :lol: ).


From my first glances at this, it looks like the tool is struggling with blanket finishes with lots of horses, and races where a horse wins extremely well.

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Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:48 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
This is just an observation.

I don't know anything about handicapping in real life so have no idea if this is how handicapping works and I am not asking for my horses weights to come down as I realise the in-game handicapping is not perfect but Royal Hangman who won 2 G1 races went up 3lbs in total, whereas Desperado who won his race but was Dq'd went up 5lbs in the weights despite being Dq'd.

There are others that seem odd, one of which was Delphine. She came 3rd in a 3 horse h'cap race and went up 4lbs.

Anyway, the in-game handicapping is what we have and we have to put up with any inconsistances.


Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:34 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
Cheers Jim. I’m trying not to get too involved if I’m honest. Just glaring mistakes or else it becomes me just becoming the handicapper then. The disqualification I’m sure works like this in real life too doesn’t it? I’m not massively experienced in handicapping but think it’s still handicapped on the win, which seems doubly harsh on yours as it didn’t seem to do anything wrong. The group races are tough, once I start playing with the group race handicaps I’ll end up having to do full races. Nothing tends to go down in the group races very much. But they seem to be consistent race to race. There were a couple of horses finished way down the field that actually went up a pound for sone reason. That just seems to be the way it has always been.

I’m happy to have a glance at the ones mentioned though sorry

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Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:04 pm
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Post Re: ASK THE HANDICAPPER
The Royal Hangman one I haven't touched as nothing in the race is rated that high anyway. Although it's winning the races, it's not whacking them but just doing enough for now, and the ratings of everything else is in an around it, so going higher than 118 seems wrong. The comparison used was a Handicapper disqualified, think a horse always likely to go up more wining a handicap like that than a GP1 that's close with a load of lower rated horses. Think once they start to meet older horses the ratings will increase more maybe in group races.

I can't find that 3 runner race sorry I may have missed, which one is it?

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Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:18 pm
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