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 Cheltenham Festival Stable Preview 
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Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:55 pm
Posts: 1355
Location: New Zealand
Post Cheltenham Festival Stable Preview
This is why I play this game for this week's meeting.

I've been very fortunate in the past to have some great horses compete at the festival in this league.

Here is run down of my horses.......

Day 1

Race 1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle G1
Galante Zara - Sierra Messiah - Having won this last season and a few times in the past, I've 2 heading for the race who have chances especially Galante Zara who picked up a nice G1 last week and is hitting form just at the right time.
Ground is on the quicker side of what I'd like it to be but if she's close up 4f from home she has a great chance. Sierra Messiah got out paced last week but only lost by a length, this extra 0.5f could see her get involved in the finish. Either horse could get me off to a great start this week.

Race 2 - Arkle Novices Chase G1
Making Memories - Relative Rose - I've much better 2mC novices this season. The ground has come up perfectly for Making Memories and I really like her chances, she's been consistent all season and will come into the race being one of the favorites.
Relative Rose is another who we haven't seen the best of yet. She too could have a say in the outcome of this race, loves the course like most of my horses. I was in to minds on whether to put in Aaly Savannah this week but he doesn't stay this trip in the league, in my trials at home he does.

Race 3 - Ultima Handicap Chase G3H
Plague Runner - Placebo Park - Both are below Grade 1 level and have so much weight this week but I want to run them and this is the only race available, . I wouldn't say they are not without a chance and the soft ground will help. I've so much better at home and my 3mC are really improving.

Race 4 - Champion Hurdle G1
Marsh Zouz - Rule Of Maze - I need to do some more trials here and decide if I need to swap out one for Crafty Customer. Looks like the 2mH maestro is back Mr D Hooley, this trainer knows what it takes to win this race. If he gets his stable really going next season he will be a major force.
I like both of these this week and they do come alive around Cheltenham. They both ran shocking races last week and I'd say ROM could surprise me here. She's a different horse at this trip and course. Looking forward to the race all the same. 

Race 6 - David Nicholson Mares Hurdle G1
Enchanted Spirit - Being the main target all season and the ground is ideal for her this week. Will be disappointed if she's not in the frame.

Race8 - Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle G1
Shameful Junkie - Caranthir - I like both of my horses in this races. I couldn't split them up and the only small issue is the ground. They love it around here.

Race 9 - RSA Novice's Chase G1
Renvyle Prospect - Behind a few of these this week and I've so much better at home she is not even in my CK anymore. I'd be pleased with a top 5 finish.

Race 10 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle G3H
Cloud Mambo - Trip could be on the short side this week but if they go a really good pace she could be okay. Loves the hill and will be staying on well if not getting out paced at the business end of the race.

Race 11 Queen Mother Champion Chase G1
Distanced Up - Goldneyev System - Both have this race as their main target for the season. But both haven't lived up to my expectations. They are both dark horses in this race and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them runs extremely well here.

Race 12 - National Hunt Chase
Elevated Slpore - Done nothing all season and her main target is the Grand National. I may not run her this week and keep her handicap mark to a minimum. It's the only meeting I would run my horses in handicaps, never being keen on pinching races for the sake of wins. But the festivals are different.

Day 2

Race 15 - JLT Golden Miller Novices' Chase G1
Aaly Savannah - Bilbo Baggins - I wouldn't swap either of these two this week for anything in the race. Aaly Savannah form leading up to this race has been top class and on paper is the best horse in the field. He destroyed the best 2mC novices last week and is in top shape coming into this race. Bilbo Baggins is another I like a lot and his form throughout the season has been very good. He will love this hill and stays very well. This race I'm very much looking forward to watching.

Race 17 - Ryanair Chase G1
Cheekz Gold - Kasable Knock - Cheekz Gold main target all season has been this race. Her performance in the Ascot Chase was eye catching and if she can reproduce that she will be right there at the finish. KK is hit and miss with his races but comes here in good form and could run a good race.

Race 18 - Stayers Hurdle G1
Rafaella Mylette - Initiale Legacy - I really like the chances of Rafaella Mylette this week. If she can be within striking range she will be thereabouts this week. She trials so well around here and I'm excited to see what happens. Initiale Legacy isn't without a chance either and could up for this as well.

Race 19 - Brown Advisory Stable Plate HCap Chase
Yorkshire Cent - Will carry a huge weight this week. Not sure he actually stays 3mC and this trip could be without range. Not expecting much here.

Race 26 - JCB Triumph Hurdle G1
Crusading Baranca - Has been the target all season but she's below the best for her age group. Could still run well and get a place this week.

Day 3

Race 28 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle G1
Madam Jeanie - Her form isn't that great, 2nd run was much better and she has a small chance this week on a course she loves and trip is ideal.

Race 29 - Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase G1
Golden Miller - Under Taurus - Great to see Golden Miller showcase his abilities this week. The main target has always been this race in mind for both of them and I wouldn't rule out Under Taurus here either. Both have really good chances to finally break my duck in this race. Looking forward to seeing how they both get on.

Race 33 - Leon Van Rensburg Cup Chase G1
Sensitive Jules - Great effort last week with a huge weight and stayed on well for 4th place finish. This trip and ground is ideal and hopeful of a good showing.

Good luck to all this week. Hope we can get some previews done which adds to the build up of this meetings. 

Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:01 pm
Group 1 winner

Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:12 pm
Posts: 2173
Location: Newcastle England
Post Re: Cheltenham Festival Stable Preview
Think there's been some confusion in how we're going about previews for this but understand we collectively haven't been proactive enough for Martin to have what he needs to do a preview that is worthwhile with the right type of content.

So here is my brief overview of what my hopes and dreams are for the stable at Cheltenham, which is my favourite week of horse racing so I just desperately want to get one winner - if that happened to be in one of the big g1s that would be the icing on the cake.

I'll break this down into a few areas rather than go race by race - so my "Bankers/best chances" , "In with a chance" , and "Outsiders" and naturally watch me get it all woefully wrong :lol: . Like others I'm sure, I have mainly trialled at Cheltenham and so can hopefully spring the odd surprise like I did with the Prince of Wales Stakes win at Royal Ascot - horses for courses and all that!

Bankers/Best chances

William Tell - Champion Bumper - Ground made me consider the Supreme for this two time novice hurdler, including a grade 1 Royal Bond win on good ground earlier in the season. As I type this i'm wondering why I have not entered him there but ultimately I have noticed a dip in form over hurdles but some great wins and consistency in the bumpers. He won the Goffs Future Stars last week in Dublin and so I feel like I want him to have a shot at the double. I also wanted to split the runners as I have another runner in the Supreme, even though the ground is most certainly too quick for him now.

Our Connie/Bare Necessities - Mares Hurdle - The ground has gone against Our Connie (slightly, she has still won on good) and I shouldn't have ran her last week, so I'm just hoping that 8th place doesn't have an impact on her performance as she is my stable star and favourite really. She has let herself down with poor jumping at times, notably in the Hatton's Grace earlier in the season and when fluffing her lines in the big American hurdle race at the last flight a few weeks back. Her jumping needs to be better but if it is she has to go close surely - if she's in front coming to the last flight i'll feel mega confident. Her stablemate Bare Necessities is in here too as she trials best at this track and will love the ground - I would not be surprised if she finishes ahead of Our Connie and all things considered, this may be my best chance of a big race win!

Tiger Woods - County Hurdle - I am keeping faith in this one, he has ran a very decent performances since joining the stable and was given an absolute shocker of a ride in the Imperial Cup last week, yet managed to stay on into place money. I still think his weight looks decent as he trials well against my other novice hurdlers over course and distance and they are running off 145+ at the moment. Ground is fine and the extra furlong may hopefully help him and prevent him being outpaced at a key point of the race. I'll be massively disappointed if he doesn't place top 3!

Sauce It Up - Pertemps - I thought she was a banker for the Irish handicap race last week but she fell at the second fence, so I still have to believe she is weighted to run a massive race in this. She came a very close second on the trials day at Cheltenham way back before the season started and I uploaded her mid-season due to the poor performances of my first choice uploads. She'd love soft/heavy ground so I suppose that could have come up better for her but looking at the weights and considering how she did on trials day, that advantage she has coupled with her liking for the track should see her go mighty close!

High Intensity - Champion Chase - My chasing star along with Auld Lang Syne, picking up 2 G1s over the past few weeks. I think he'd have gone very close in the Victor Chandler if he'd stayed on his feet and that is all I am wanting to see him do this week - as if he does, I am confident he can land this. The ground is in his favour, he trials like a monster at the track, and all being well he'll come back as a 7yo. Please please jump a clean round and if he's within 2-3 lengths of the lead approaching the last the champagne cork will be ready for popping!

In with a chance

Auld Lang Syne - Gold Cup - Chaser of the season for me, with 3 G1s and consistent performances in other big races, including a very close run in the Lexus, Irish Gold Cup, Lancashire, and Charlie Hall. I have him in this bracket simply because it's the Gold Cup, the competition is intense, and also I have to admit i'm concerned that he is my only chaser to not suffer a fall this season. It feels like his season has all built up to this and on form he should be one of the favourites but I just have this awful feeling he isn't going to get round. I hope i'm wrong and have everything crossed that he'll finish in the top 5! I think he deserves based on being the most consistent 3mile plus chaser in the league.

Seven Spanish Angels - Supreme Novices Hurdle - As I said above, William Tell may have been the best bet for this race but the bumper looks so open for him to grab me a festival win. Having said that, this guy has a decent chance, he's gone super close in two G1 hurdles and took the G2 Sharp Novice hurdle at Cheltenham earlier in the season. So he has the track from and some consistency coming into the festival - I hope he can run into the prize money.

Alice In Wonderland - Arkle Chase - I'm astonished she's still a maiden to be honest, jumping has been her downfall at key stages of races and she's been touched off into second on a few occasions. She leaves her run until too late and it may be that she'd have been better off in open company with more G1s at the extra furlong distance. That being said, she loves soft ground and isn't far behind High Intensity and so she could go close with a clear round of jumping. My gut tells me she'd fine one too good again anyway but if she's within touching distance over the last she'll power up the hill.

Stirrednotshaken - Triumph Hurdle - ran consistently all season, loads of 3-5th place finishes and then suddenly sprang a shock in a juvenile race two weeks back when dead heating with star juvenile Red Poimt. On this ground and in a G1 against horses like that and Jailbreak, I'd be shocked if he ran any better than 3rd so the minor honours is what I'm hoping for.

River Of Dreams - Ultima Handicap Chase - Having not been in the league many seasons I don't know how hard it is for the horses to carry big weights in long distance chasers, I know I always look to some of the mid-light weight horses when placing my bets in real life for this race. At 135 I think he has a real chance over this course and distance, off the back of three pretty solid runs so far this season. Equinox is a monster though so won't be surprised if that can carry the weight.

Forza Juve - Ryan Air Chase - Ground has come up perfect. I uploaded him with this race in mind and he's put in some decent performances for me this season, picking up one listed race alongside some placed efforts in good company. On this track, on quick ground, over this distance, he should put up his best performance of the season - as long as he jumps well!

Jack Of Clubs - Golden Miller Novices Chase - Been a great addition to the stable, winning two in a row and then placing third last week. I wanted to go for the RSA but with the extra furlong, soft ground, and no other race for my two other novice chasers, I have dropped down in trip for this. I think he'll get outpaced but hopefully he can hang on to the leaders and stay on well up the hill!


Take The Knee - Brown Advisory Stable Plate Hcap Chase - One good win in a handicap (Munster National) earlier in the season but a lot of average efforts and falls to go with it. If the ground was mucky I'd be more confident and I also have little faith in him getting round. If he does, off this weight, he could sneak into place money but I suppose.

To Toulouse - Golden Miller Novice Chase - Went within a nose of winning a G1 novice chase in France earlier this season but it's all gone a bit wrong since then. In my CK he is a very versatile sort and could probably have made my flat team, although I did think he'd be a good hurdler and that hasn't transpired - and then back over fences he's struggled to replicate the form from earlier in the season. 2m4f may be a bit on the short side too and so I'm just hoping for a decent run and a completed round, as jumping has been an issue with this one too!

Hurricane Fly/King of Spades - Champion Hurdle - I'd maybe have had these down as having a slight chance given the prizes they have won this season but Hurricane Fly has gone off the boil and King of Spades needs soft ground or a tiny bit further; he's also done his winning in graded handicap company, not group 1s! I think Mr Hooley holds the aces in this race but would also expect Leon to have one primed for this! Hurricane Fly did win the Morgiana earlier in the season so I'll live in hope that he can produce that kind of effort again.

First Prize - Close Brothers Hcap Chase - Not done a thing this season, jumps poorly and leaves his effort until too late in the day. Has been slightly better over hurdles but maybe too high in the weights for the Martin Pipe and isn't good enough to even attempt the Neptune. Switched at 11th hour to run in this over Martin Pipe but the ground is too soft for him and he will likely make too many mistakes jumping to get invovled.

Little Green Bag - Gold Cup - One of my stars at home and has landed two good prizes with a G3 in Punchestown and the Welsh National a few weeks back. That Chepstow race was one of her targets but unfortunately 3m5f isn't a popular distance for big races and so she has often ran over a distance too short for her. This trip on a testing track could bring the best out of her but i'd be slightly more confident if the ground was softer to bring her stamina into play. Not without a squeak but can't possibly expect her to beat Auld Lang Syne, either of Leon's, or Craig's newcomer Golden Miller.

State of Euphoria/Good Timing - RSA Chase - Both have put some decent performances in to place this season but have always found a couple too good no matter which race they've entered. Can't see how that will suddenly change in a race of this quality and I think Josh may hold the key to this one. Maybe one of the will hold on to a place if i'm lucky.

Reality Check - Kim Muir - Great run in 3rd behind two great horses in the Charlie Hall but that was back in week 2 and done very little since. Not come down in the weights much at all, as we know is the case in the NH, and so I think he has too much on his plate here. If he was 10lbs lower i'd be piling on but at this weight I'll hope for a top 5.

Reet Petite - Neptune Novices Hurdle - ran some half decent races this season but still a maiden and can't see that changing here. Ground and course are good though so maybe she'll sneak a top 5!

Other runners - Under His Eye (Ryan Air) and Spilt Over (Grand Annual) have no chance in the races they're in, the former needs shorter and is below group level but has been too high in the weights since week one; the latter needs 2m4f and is looking ahead to the Melling Chase. She has too much weight for this and will be badly outpaced. Both also fall more often than completing and so if I do have fallers this week I'd rather it was these two than two of my other better chances!

Eton Mess goes for Stayers Hurdle and has no hope at all so not even in my outsiders list and I also have Jack Sparra running in Champion Chase but he's not good enough to win it and too highly rated to go in the Grand Annual. Dare To Do is entered for the Mares Novice hurdle over 17f but is a chaser that can't hurdle for toffee so will come last but I wanted to enter all my horses this week :lol:


Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:33 pm
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