'My theory is unless I trial it I won't know how good it is, even if none of it's lineage has performed well in trials before...you just never know!'

Very good theory in my opinion. Trialling is vital. However, what I will say is don't cull after 2yo trials. 2yos seem to be a bit of an anomaly if you ask me. Their stats all drop weirdly from 1 to 2, then go back up at 3. Also the ability in the CK can be completely different at 2 than 3. In the last few seasons I've had exceptional 2yos in the league, won multiple group1s, but at 3 they were just dreadful, an 4. Also, some of your best horses at 3 an 4, may not show much at all at 2.

Here's how I would cull an trial.

1. Cull as yearling based on stats. My games are all individual distance ones, so I usually cull here from about 180/200 down to about 110
2. Trial as 2yos if you plan on having 2yos in the league, if not, don't bother. Don't cull at this age
3. The main trials for me, I trial all my 3yos, against all my best 3yos from previous, they don't race older horses. This then becomes the big cull, my 110 usually goes down to about 25
4. These are trials for all your older horses then, the trial s are easier to manage as there's less of them, an you can replicate the league races a bit better

an example here is my 3yo mile game I trial them at Newmarket, then as 4yos, they trial at Ascot. I also do a few more tracks at 3 if I'm in the mood to trial, like Curragh an Ascot, as 4yo I try Randwick an Newbury maybe. Basically replicating the big races in the league for my trials

After starting again I've had to work out the best way of breeding and trailing and I think I've come up with what suits me best and that is to run trials after every 6th season, I have about 100 mares in my best game ( 3mile + chasers, ) and so I have around 80 new horses to run but the best bit of doing it at 6 I's that I get to keep the best stallions/mares for 3 trials.

I am keeping my discord updated with my breeding progress so far if anyone wants to see what I do and how I do it, and what I am currently predicting for trial, it’s all on discord. Not trialed anything since the last league yet. Up to around 800 new horse files in the export bin

And vinny is spot on, 2yo form is not an indicator of future form. I have plenty of 2yo stars who never progress at 3, and an equal number who only show at 3 or 4.

I’d also suggest keeping flat and NH in separate games if you ever tackle both. NH is easier to find success with, but perhaps now less so than it was.

Thanks everyone for the advice.

Vinny, I will be changing my trials to focus on 3yo's instead of 2yo's - don't know why I didn't think of that in the first place! I prefer the 3yo and 3yo+ races anyway.

I have experienced the same in my offline save in that 2yo form and ability doesn't transcend into 3yo greatness. Likewise most of my Classic winners at 3yo and upwards never really shone much as 2yo's.

It's good to get an idea of the numbers of yearlings you are dealing with each season. I know that I am on track. Currently I'm around 130 a year but this is increasing. My biggest problem is I love to keep stats and I record the percentage of the bars of all the yearlings I keep to help me at a later date when I come to breed them. So a cull takes me a long time! (And yes I know, I shouldn't be so invested in the bars!)

Thanks again for the all the advice,
Paul

No you should be investing in bars too. Potential, extra speed and cruising burst need to be found early and seeding into the core of your breeding. Then it’s just luck if you also find you have the magic juju.

As of now 3 of my 4 games have it, one is shaping up to be a bust, great bars terrible at trial. It will work the other way around too though, since my main NH game was built before we could see the bars so they all rate poorly. But NH and flat are different, you need bars too for flat.

Re:
'No you should be investing in bars too. Potential, extra speed and cruising burst need to be found early and seeding into the core of your breeding. Then it’s just luck if you also find you have the magic juju'

I have kept a line of horses in the breeding barn with good bars to hopefully breed into the lines of good trial horses each year. So fingers crossed!

Paul

Ideal approach.

Hi Paul

(from a non expert)

You seem to be doing most the things I did and I had some 'success' in the League.

Throw a few horses in the trails this weekend. See how you are tracking and as the trails go you can see what distance/age you seem to be more competitive.

I've started a new save since the last league season. My current stocks are about 250 mares in the barn and this give 40-70 to race. I still throw maybe 5 to 10 straight to barn if I like a stat but know they wont race well.

I trail after each season, find it easier to track. But this is just a few races over the distances verses known best in over those distances. Like Vinny a horse has to be top 5 over distance to be kept from 3 to 4. This normally means 50 horses at 3, turn to 20 at 4. Any mare that gets this far will end up in the barn.

Every x amount of seasons, I will do a mass trail where each distance and age will get 10 races over different going and tracks. These are the ones that make my team.

Only thing to note is to make sure you keep any/some 100 potential horses, high cruise (say over 70), and high extra speed (i can't get over 90) around even if they dont make it via trails, as I have seen you may get to a point where you can't bred them anymore. As Josh says your 'save' loses them.

I also bred 1 or 2 horses to any game monsters to look at thier stats the next year and see if they are worth breeding with.

Don't go look at Joshs Stats in the discord it will make you feel sick how high those bars are

Thanks for that!

Re;
"Throw a few horses in the trails this weekend. See how you are tracking and as the trails go you can see what distance/age you seem to be more competitive."

I have entered a couple just to see how far away I am at the moment!

Regarding stats I have a handful that have reached 100 potential once they are 3yo. The best I've managed as a yearling so far is 93 with a handful of 90. My save doesn't seem to have many good stayers at the moment so the best cruising burst I have is around 70. Sprinters seem to be readily available in the save and I have a number of 95 extra speed.

Haven't looked at Josh's stats yet, but I will. Would like to know what I'm trying to build towards.

Thanks again,
Paul

Stats are only half the battle, least one of my trial prospects I now know is a bust.

I 110% agree about stats, my worse stat horse What Fettle was my best league horse. I've just had major problems running my final trials, well 95% of my 3 mile plus chasers are now out and out front runners and I think its messed with my trials, they are not how league races are run . I've got a few hold up horses in my team but because of all the front runners they might just look good because of it and not reproduce in slower league races. Time will tell I suppose.

This is the exact thing that happened with my trials and them all becoming hold up horses. Getting the balance of trials right long term is massive. I have spent 3 league seasons trying to change mine now

Have one front runner and one hold up in your team and set your own pace. I often do that for NH and used to the flat ( since the change to reduce the older horses ability my flat horses arent quite there yet). You always have to run your horses together though unless you can see there is other pace in the race

Even with one or two front runners in a race that wouldn't be anywhere near the pace of my trials, my trials are wild. I rate my horses like this in game back-back middle- middle- mid front runner and front runner and even the mid to mid/front horses can get far back but my best hold horse Scally can be like 15-20L of the pace. It is what it is, I've had fun breeding front runners and I wouldn't change it.

I don't have a front runner per se. I have started putting a handy horse in that just misses out on the quality of making my trials anyway. So a good horse. And I export him with sit handy, challenge early. Seems to balance mine out a lot better now