Hi all,

Watch this space as I am doing a form analysis of this race. I have made a start and hope to have it done in the next day ot two.

Cheers

John

First of all please forgive me if I have accidently forgot anything that should have been written or written anything incorrectly as it is not my intention to upset anyone. But I am happy for your critique. This was meant to be an enjoyable read for the trainers involved in this race. There will be mistakes in my analysis and every one looks at form a little differently. I don’t mind your input either. You can discuss were I went right and wrong.

But most of all enjoy.


Week 3 Race 15 Fred Darling Stakes for 3yo Fillies

1400m Straight at Newbury
Going - Soft
Draw - High 3

Track Record: 1.20.05 by Crete (L Cara) UK Season 9


Afterburn (Paulweddle) – At only run, 5th to Delegation and ran home strongly from barrier 15. Likes to get back in her races and the owner has indicated that softish and 8f suits. Distance is a query and they might be a little to slick for her.
Throw her in for place bets.

Anastastia Honey (Rich Coats) - Out of the placings both starts and back in distance. Needs to find form before considering.
Prefer to see more.

Bella Boo (Tyler Cox) – Miler coming back in distance. Hit the front 380m out at only start and just unable to hang on for a solid 3rd to Delegation from barrier 2. Might appreciate coming back in distance.
Keep safe.

Flat To The Boards (Steve) – Miler coming back in distance, Decent 6th to Delegation at only start.
Prefer to see more.

Gala Wonder (D Robertson) – Showed class at only start at the distance winning from barrier 11. Started well and found a good posy in running then showed a good turn of foot for a powerful bust to hit the front 430m out and hung on to win from a determined Feared Within.
Will give this a mighty shake.

Ingenuity (Chris Dean) – Miler coming back in distance. First up 1600m from barrier 17, made up ground in the straight to eventual winner Star Guard being short by ¾ L, solid effort. Second up at the same distance found that filly a little too strong again but hit the front from barrier 8 and looked the winner with a powerful run at the 360m to head her only to fade the last 130m and loose by less that a length. Showed signs that she might appreciate dropping back in distance and has a big chance.
Respect.

Kentilla (J P Burke) - At only start at the distance from barrier 4 not disgraced 4th behind winner Gala Wonder. Found her a bit too quick. Powerful trainer and have no doubt has horse primed and ready to go. Would not surprise.
Keep safe.

Latyshev (Vinny Gerrard) – First up 8th missed the break at the distance but found winner Special Filly to slick. Second up 8th to She Could Be Great giving 6kg to that filly. Going on first up run she might find opposition to slick to consider.
Prefer to see more.

Lingfield (mwesty 1) – Miler coming back in distance. At only start 9th to Delegation and ran home strong to challenge till 280m out where she faded badly.
Prefer to see more.

Miss Marple (PJ Rhodes) – Miler Coming back in distance. Held up from 760 to 570m when wanting to go forward, then loomed up to challenge at 400m to 260m where she could not maintain it. She might appreciate the drop in distance but would rather wait and see.
Prefer to see more

Momentum (Dogan Melan) – First up 7th to Special Filly from barrier 12. Fair run to winner Special filly but can’t see her overturn the tables. Second up 22nd Found opposition too strong from barrier 20 to eventual winner Star Guard. Back to her preferred distance but going on her first up run will find others a little too strong for her.
Prefer to see more.

Moonshine (ThunderDownunder) – First up run super 4th to Special Filly from barrier 16. Covered more ground than all three place getters above her and still hung on to be only l ¼ back. Second up distance didn’t suit at 1200m when 24th to winner Spiritual Healer on heavy track. Going on first up run will appreciate the straight track. Only query is the Soft going as she appeared not to handle the heavy going.
Must include.

Musical Bliss (K Robertson) – Miler coming back in distance. Courageous effort 3rd to The Shootist first run from barrier 10 as she kept giving. Then second start from barrier 1 ran strongly to get 2nd from winner Star Guard. She is super over 1600m, and likes to lead so if she sneaks a break on them 400 out will be hard to run down.
Very Good chance.

Park Idol (Jason) – Miler coming back in distance. Reasonable first up run from barrier 1, 7th to See Hear and then second up run from barrier 4, 11th to winner Star Guard. Found opposition a little too good.
Prefer to see more.

Queen Of The Nile (Sir Luke Wilson) – 9f horse coming back in distance. At only start solid 3rd to winner Armadale 1800m on the dirt from barrier 19. Better draw and she goes close to winning. Bit of an unknown at the 1400m. Has ability but a query horse as she is untried at the distance.
Put her in for place.

Rock N Roll Star (S M Fisher) – First up 1200m from barrier 26 raced wide and 26th to Light Dynamic, so forget that run. Again 1200m on a heavy track from barrier 24, 7th to Spiritual Healer. Up in distance.
Prefer to see more.

Sharp Persuader (nickdriver) – At Only start 1600m 17th from barrier 6 to Delegation. Was a little agitated on race day.
Prefer to see more.

She Could Be Great (Scatters) – First up very average 14th from barrier 16 to Gala Wonder at 1400m. Raced wide and missed the break. Go on second up run 1st at 1400m on Good to Soft at Newmarket. Likes the softer going.
Don’t dismiss.

Sizzle (DodgyDave) – First up ran decent 6th from barrier 14 but found winner Special filly too good. Then raced at her pet distance of 1600m from barrier 12 and raced wide. Didn’t loose ground on the leaders in the straight but found winner Star Guard a little too strong. If she had the inside running would have been a lot closer last start. Back in distance here and going on first up run will find Special Filly, Villa Territory, Suave & Moonshine too strong here at this distance.
Prefer to see more.

Small Town Girl (Crazy Boy) – Untested filly who appreciates 7f and softish going. So conditions suit. No form to go on but, from a powerful stable and would not surprise in giving these a run for their money. The stable is very confident as she has been backed to the hilt from $21.30 to $6.10 with the bookies and looks the danger.
Keep very safe.

Special Filly (L Cara) – At only run at this distance from barrier 15 produced determined run to just hold off Villa Territory & Suave. Appreciates the soft going which will give her another advantage. Stable is on fire and will be hard to beat.
Strong Chance.

Suave (jimbo) – Fantastic effort first up 3rd to winner Special filly from barrier 9 where she just failed. Matched that horse stride for stride in the last 200m to only just go down.
Must include.

Tadoir Class (bilbobaggio) – First up 10th from barrier 6 found winner Special Filly too strong and second up 17th from barrier 15 found winner She Could Be Great a little too strong.
Prefer to see more.

The Real Deal (Jamie Taylor) – Untested here and not much to go on but is a 7f horse who likes the soft going.
Prefer to see more.

Treasure Trove (iandavid59) – At only start impressive 3rd behind Gala Wonder from barrier 17 and only 1 L back. Raced wide and covered more ground in the race than any other horse apart from Boot Up and still managed to hang in there. Will appreciate the straight track here but the soft track is the only query as she is a firmish horse.
Must include.


Villa Territory (Colin Pereira) – First up run very good 2nd to Special Filly from barrier 10 and followed that up at 6f running 26th to Upsy Daisy from barrier 6 on a dirt track caring 63kg. Ignore that run. Likes the soft going and will be in the thick of things.
Must include.

Viper (Staresy104) – 9f Horse coming back in distance. First up 6f 30th from barrier 15 to Light Dynamic and second up at 6f 28th from barrier 24 to Upsy daisy.
Prefer to see more


Intriguing race as most of these runners have met each other on a dirt track and no form on the softish going which can make the form analysis upside down. Hence there is never a certainty. But based on the form (I have include one with no form) that is available the following horses have a big chance to win this one and in no particular order:

Gala Wonder – 7f Firmish
Ingenuity – 8F Softish
Kentilla – 7f Firmish
Moonshine – 7f Good
Musical Bliss – 8f Good
She Could Be Great – 7f Softish
Small Town Girl - 7f Softish
Special Filly - 7f Softish
Suave – 7f Good
Treasure Trove – 7f Firmish
Villa Territory – 7f Softish

Narrowing it down I have to consider the proven 7f runners thus removing Ingenuity and Musical Bliss although I am reluctant to do so. They are good chances.

I am now looking at which horses should improve on the Softish going i.e. Good to Soft, Soft & heavy. Very reluctantly removing Gala Wonder, Kentilla, Moonshine, Musical Bliss, Suave & Treasure Trove. Man I like some of these but you can’t pick them all.

According to the trainers She Could Be Great, Small Town Girl, Special Filly, & Villa Territory do well on the Soft going, so they are in.

Who wins?

Can’t split Small Town Girl who is from an excellent trainer who knows a thing or two and the money keeps coming for her and the other classy filly, Special Filly.


Good luck to all

Mate fantastic review, can see it takes time to find out about all horses. Really enjoyed it pal

Nice work Scatters....But i think you will win the race!!

Fantastic write up Scatters!

It feels so good when someone writes about your horses chances

Brilliant stuff, nice work scatters!!!

Excellent! Would enjoy reading more of these Scatters, How long did it take mate?

Thanks fellow trainers, It took me 4 hours and it would have been quicker if everything was linked ie able to see the race (probably Youtube version) to the race nominations page or the betting page.

In fact it would be ideal if the betting page had more options so you could see draw, form and another icon to show the race in question.

I know its more work but prehaps something down the track.

Another thing I hesitant about is writing up for so many horses. It would be more managable if the field were no bigger than say 20 for every race but thats just me.

I got very tired toward the end of it and I'd like to do it but am a bit hesitant with so many horses.

Cheers

Absolutley right Luke, thats one of the reasons I did it to give you trainers some enjoyment.

Also a lot of people here do a lot of work and I sit on the side lines. So appreciated all their work and saying thankyou by doing it.

30 Horse reviews everytime would soon burn most out im thinking, are number of trainers up from last season? Only joined at the end of SO3 and dont remember there being this many horses in races, having to split races is a sure sign that trainers must be up, i`ve introduced two people near me that are now playing SO4 and think they may end up being league trainers. Are there any sort of plans for if the league gets to big for the amount of trainers?

I think if it grows anymore there will be a discussion at some point. I think combining the leagues might be a way to reduce horse entries but then that means more work but this whole thing was designed to grow so we cant complain really