SuperCat wrote:
If the game ratings are being used then why bother using the 3-run rule to make the league more realistic?? You may as well scrap it. I thought the point of the 3-run rule was so that someone could consider 3 attempts made by a horse and then judge the level that horse should run at, which will be reflected in a high or low rating?? I'm quite shocked there isn't a dedicated handicapper already?? Frankly it makes no sense.
The point of the 3 run rule is that after 1 run, where the horse could have been blocked in or got worked up you may not have a clear picture of the horse's ability. Also, the way the game calculates ratings depends on it's existing rating (which is fair enough) and an approximating mathematical formula. Repeating such a calculation over and over tends to the correct answer (the horses actual rating).
Secondly, the rating in the game is not a "realistic" rating. I.e If you gave Speedito 30lbs and raced him against Canford Cliffs it would not be a draw. If this is something people would like to see we could start off with higher ratings to begin with.
Thirdly, should we exclude the best horses from the handicap? Wouldn't people like to meet the best horses on a level playing field? I'm not saying Scatters should enter his horses in a handicap but I'd like to face Speedito getting 12lbs. Why is Arkle so revered? Because he ran in handicaps carrying the equivalent of John Prescott.
Lastly, I have run a trial 1m race over the straight mile at Ascot using the ratings from this week. and the runners from the 2000 Guineas and the Lincoln.
The first 10 horses were covered by 1 1/2L
In that 10 was the top rated horse (Speedito) and the 2nd lowest rated horse (Heavyweight)
The first 6 were covered by 0.7L
The winner won by a head from the middle of the weights
Pretty sure the chief BHA handicapper would be pleased with that, since the handicap in the last at Kempton was a 7f race and the first 6 were covered by 7L.
As Liam says, what needs changing are the handicap limits due to the changes and that is something I will look at. I think in an ideal world a handicapper would be great, however I don't believe such an intensive job will improve the game in any noticeable manner. I'm happy that the game does a good enough job and I'm going to stick with it for now.
I appreciate the feedback though and I'm happy to change things if it is clearly a problem. I've looked at Babylon and he is probably 2lbs higher than he should be but a strong performance in the listed event has slightly stuffed him. Given that performance I don't think handicaps are the right choice for him.
