Is TOM correct in showing week 7 at ascot to be good to soft ground?? if this is correct it is getting unrealistic beyond belief!!!

Newmarket guineas meeting good, derby meeting good to soft, yorkshire cup meeting heavy, royal ascot good to soft. these meetings take place from may-june!!ridiculous

Over watering

its daft mate, just soft in the description every week.

Didnt think week 7 weather had been decided yet but maybe it has.

A lot of my horses were uploaded with a view to having some quicker ground at this time of season, 2 of my best like G/F and haven't really shown there true ability yet, but I'm sure the sun will be out soon.

yeah but itll come out for a crap meeting like the ebor or something

Dont ever call the ebor meeting crap! its the best meeting of the year on the fairest track in the country

The Juddmonte, Gimcrack, Lowther, Acomb, Yorkshire Oaks, Ebor and more

Sickest meeting of the year

Forgetting Leger week?

We cater for all ages, sexes and distances throughout the week so everyone gets a bit of glory. No real draw bias nowadays either so less excuses. Flat, galloping track.

Worst, clearly the Chester dog-track!

All my beasts want good or better ground so I am stuffed!!!!

Yes I did the weather early this week.

But I couldn't bear to post the forecast because Ryan would kill me

Hahah its just frustrating as some trainers have better firm ground horses and others have softer ground horses and it seems like they are getting all the breaks at the minute. Faster ground would give us a chance to challenge some of scatters' horses and see whether our horses are really at the level we think they are. I know half of my horses have not been retirered or considered as 'duds' because they have not had a chance to show their worth.

Bring on firm ground for the Arc meeting.

Joe i know ebor isnt crap bud, i was just frustrated lol. But royal ascot is my fav meeting!

All of my best horses prefer the firmer ground too, I've been trialling at Ascot a lot as well so I'm just as disappointed!

I personally trial my horses on Good or worse. Good to Firm or better I don't even bother. This is because the odds of the tracks at the beginning of the season favour softer grounds. So I made a conscious decision to go that path. The US however has heaps of Good or better tracks during the season even though there are a lot of dirt tracks. I think you will find the odds of the tracks in the SOPL info somewhere? In fact here is the link.

http://sopl.info/node/39

Actually I'll past it here as well.

Part 9 - Weather Conditions
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 08:10 — editor
In Seasons gone by we had weather conditions decided at the start of the season, or had a small range used. To improve the realism and uncertainty of weather, we've broadened the options, and you won't know what weather will actually appear, until one week before race day.

Below is a list of the percentages used in calculating weather conditions. These denote the percentage chance of that ground appearing for weeks listed with those conditons.

Winter - Track variations (Heavy 40%, Soft 40%, Good-Soft 15%, Good 5%):
Winter will cover late Dec to early Feb. There is a heavy bias toward soft and heavy here with just a 5% chance of the track being good. No possibility whatsoever for a track rated good to firm or better.

Winter/Spring - Track variations (Heavy 10%, Soft 25%, Good-Soft 40%, Good 20%, Good-Firm 5%):
Winter/Spring will cover late Feb to Early Apr. There is a bias towards good to soft with just a 5% chance of the track being good to firm. No possibility whatsoever for a track rated firm or better.

Spring - Track variations (Heavy 5%, Soft 10%, Good-Soft 20%, Good 45%, Good-Firm 15%, Firm 5%):
Spring will cover Late Apr/May. There is a bias towards good with up to 6 different conditions possible. No possibility whatsoever for a track rated hard.

Spring/Summer - Track variations (Heavy 2%, Soft 6%, Good-Soft 12%, Good 45%, Good-Firm 23%, Firm 10%, Hard 2%):
Spring/Summer will cover June. There is a bias towards good/good to firm with all conditions possible from heavy to hard.

Summer - Track variations (Heavy 1%, Soft 4%, Good-Soft 10%, Good 28%, Good-Firm 36%, Firm 14%, Hard 7%):
Summer will cover July and Early August. There is a bias towards good to firm with all conditions possible from heavy to hard.

Spring/Summer - Track variations (Heavy 2%, Soft 6%, Good-Soft 12%, Good 45%, Good-Firm 23%, Firm 10%, Hard 2%):
Spring/Summer will cover late Aug/Sep. There is a bias towards good/good to firm with all conditions possible from heavy to hard.

Autumn - Track variations (Heavy 5%, Soft 10%, Good-Soft 20%, Good 45%, Good-Firm 15%, Firm 5%):
Autumn will cover Oct/Early Nov. There is a bias towards good with up to 6 different conditions possible. No possibility whatsoever for a track rated hard.

Autumn/Winter - Track variations (Heavy 10%, Soft 25%, Good-Soft 40%, Good 20%, Good-Firm 5%):
Autumn/Winter will cover mid Nov to mid Dec. There is a bias towards good to soft with just a 5% chance of the track being good to firm. No possibility whatsoever for a track rated firm or better.


Correct me if I'm wrong Rich but you still use this system don't you?

Hurricane, if you look at the schedule that Rich provided you will see the column showing the seasons. You use this to determine the odds. As an example I have listed Ascot week 7.

7 1 75000 Coventry Stakes Spring/Summer Ascot 2yo All Sexs Group 2 Open 6f

You will note that it is in the spring/Summer catagory. So the odds do very much favour good or better but as in real life anything can happen.

Cheers

Yeah John i had a read through that at the start of the season. so my grumble would be that those with firmer ground horses have been very unlucky with how much soft has been in the description!!

the majority of the percentages this season therefore have been between around 15%.

we are looking at week 6 being 20% chance of softer than good ground. week 5 5% of heavy ground at york. 10% chance of heavy at early doncaster meeting. and then of course ascot for week 7 being another 20% chance of softer than good ground.

its relentless bad luck for us trainers needing that extra boost to our horses chances from the going. Im looking at a horse like Marching Queen for example. 3rd in the 1000 guineas and 5th in irish 1000. on firm ground i think she could of won one of these races and now she goes to the coronation stakes with a place chance at best. Other horses like Sea The Stars, Zee Zee Jamare, Counting Coins all showing decent form which could of easily been wins on firmer ground. I hope the odds even themselves out over the course of the season. yet over in the nhc we are seeing firm ground for the tingle creek meeting and other big autumn meetings which over in the ukra would only have a 5% chance of being firm. No doubt come the ebor meeting it will be good to soft and the cheltenham festival will be heavy!!

i think some imprvements could me made to this also in the future. why for winter weather is there a 0% chance of good to firm but in the summer weather it is a 15% chance of worse than good.

at the end of the day people are playing this game to find horses good enough for the league. it shouldnt get to the point where trainers are killing off firmer ground horses from their lines just to suit these odds especially when the majority of trainers will find out about these odds by reading this thread!