Any thoughts?

-04 Bang A Gong (-) David Robertson - 4th in listed race over 2m6 , trip could be a bit short

-107 Hermione (-) keithbeaky - won maiden 1st out but went in gr and no luck

-0F0 Hog Island (-) Staresy104 - 3 runs and no luck ,,, trainers enjoying season and having great fun

-090 Inxs (-) G Clutterbuck - great band but horse to now after 3 runs not so great

-011 Jaydee (-) D W Hinton - 1st time our hurdles , jockets orders take it easy then won gr3 and gr2 trainer would love a 1st time treble wins

-21 Rikard Eddard (-) Hemz123 - top trainer and great man ,,, this 1 will take some beating

-030 Skip N Click (-) FiXiT - great trainer good 3rd in gr3 race ... good ew bet

-16 Sliver Charm (-) Doza - ex flat horse won 2m6 maiden then unplaced over 3 miles .. will run well

-801 Special Trade (-) Leon van Rensburg - no luck in 2 maidens the won gr3 hcp trainer in good form

-023 To See You Nice (-) 17days - beaten by Jaydee twice ,,, this trip could be a bit short ,, buy trainer must be confident

-1 Wassily Kandinsky (-) Jamie Taylor - trainer had bad luck last week , great season for trianer hope this falls opps dint mean that , will be there at the finnish

Don't ever open a bookies Del, overround of 153% you tight git.

jamie
ill do bookies for fun
hope im right thou
if your horse falls you will hate me ,,, do comms for this race mate

If he falls your horses will be doped next week.

its a great race
i did review
you do comms
stop sulking lol
you come 2nd 2 my horse i hope

Week 4, Race 25
Cerco IT Listed Hurdle
Fontwell ~ Hurdle ~ Good to Soft ~ 4yo+ ~ Listed ~ All Sexs ~ 2m7f



Biohazard: Decent form in a couple of 3m races so far, likely to find 3 or 4 too good again.
Death To The Free: Three legged donkey, trained by an idiot, back in distance, should be in the top one.
Foot Steps In The Sea: Got stuck in the mud last time but placed behind todays winner two races ago. Each way chance.
Gold Paper: Mixing codes and back to hurdles here. Trip looks on the short side and likely to struggle here.
Grand Crus: Great form in all 3 starts but over 2m5 and 2m6. Obvious ability but stamina an issue on softish ground. Can see him doing an Oscar Whisky here!
Lucky Star: Fifth in two starts over hurdles and fences. Shaped as if this trip would suit first time out and could run a big race here.
Mahon: Another of these who has been running over shorter. Regressed since promising debut and needs to improve significantly up in trip.
Misteltoe: Just average chase form so far and sent over hurdles after falling over the big nasty fences last time out. Unless he’s Big Bucks I think he’ll struggle.
New England: Disappointing last of 15 in West Yorkshire hurdle after leading early. Can only improve on that and slight drop in trip and better ground may help here.
One To Beat: Just behind Grand Crus twice after falling when in contention on debut. Looks more suited by todays ground and trip, so expect him to turn form with Grand Crus around here.
Over The Top: Another who has shaped with promise over shorter trips, especially her 2nd last time. Good each way chance here.
Self Reflection: Good 2nd on debut and probably hated ground when disappointing last time. Should run well without scaring the winner.
Zarkava: Fourth behind Self Reflection on only start, needs to improve to get a place here.

Verdict:
Many of the field are stepping up in trip here and those likely to improve for it are One To Beat, Lucky Star and Over The Top. On paper Grand Crus looks to have an outstanding chance but (sorry Jamie) I can’t have him over this trip on ground worse than good. Lay him and fill your boots!
Death To The Free is his trainers best horse by a country mile, was just starting to challenge when making a bad mistake 3 out in the West Yorkshire hurdle and can land this with a minimum of fuss. Fill your boots again!

1st Death To The Free, 2nd One To Beat, 3rd Lucky Star

Warning: Tweddle tipsters predictions, as well as being uncannily accurate, can also be complete and utter *****, especially when tipping his own horses

I know I could google this ? but how do you work out the book to 153% ????

Thnaks Y'all

Each horse has a percentage chance of winning the race.

9/4 = 30.77%
9/4 = 30.77%
3/1 = 25.00%
6/1 = 14.29%
8/1 = 11.11%
8/1 = 11.11%
10/1 = 9.091%
12/1 = 7.692%
12/1 = 7.692%
33/1 = 2.941%
33/1 = 2.941%

Add all those percentages up and you get 153.4%

You can find out your percentage chance by diving 100 by the odds.

100 / 34 = 2.941
100 / 7 = 14.29

And then just turn them into percentages. Remember to add the extra part of the fraction though (so 3/1 = 4) as it would on Betfair.

100 / 4 = 25%

And so on....

lol there is no bookies was just abit off fun plus if i did the odds they would be the same and deleted odds from preview

Thanks for that J.....

So whats the (approx) levels for a "tight git" over-round rating or a "generous fool"? 140% / 170%??

I'm interested to know, as I have never understood this (thanks for the expalnation of the calculation Duke)

A generous fool you would be betting over-broke (less than 100%), that way you can't possibly lose and only a fool would price up this way.

Say for example you had a four horse race, each horse priced at 3/1 (25% x 4 = 100%). This here would give you a 'round' book, and were a bookmaker to take the same amount of cash on each horse he would break even on the race.

Lets day for example we price up a four horse race with each horse at 5/2 (28.57% x 4 = 114.29%) which when multiplying the percentage together gives you an over-round of 114.29% (14.29%) as seen from the bracketed calculation.

The over-round is the margin that gives the bookmaker his profit on a race, and keeps him chain-smoking cigars and driving around in flash cars. If say for example you have an over-round of 125% the bookmaker will be expected to pay out £100, for every £125 he takes on the race, gaining him a profit of 20%.

The over-rounds on some of the irish racing is absolutely scandalous, and can verge from anything up to around mid-150%. From what I have seen it tends to vary from generally around 118% - 134% but I can't save I looked at it in any real depth, obviously this would be ALOT closer to 100% on Betfair for obvious reasons.

Great previews

You do some David cos i not bothering again after this forum