View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Tue May 28, 2024 8:19 pm



Reply to topic  [ 3136 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ... 210  Next
 DAILY DISCUSSION 
Author Message
Selling plater

Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:31 am
Posts: 55
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Tantshi saved the bacon today and I think he looks a type to follow. I wad aware of his decent gallop reports and I was amazed he went off at 9s. Tax Free ran well but 2nd at 25s is hard to take especially after friggin Moore cocked up on Strong Suit. Hughesy is much better imo and i dont think Moore is all that to be honest. Never rated him.

Tomorrows racing is poor, but David Barrons Robotboy has been working well and he is very interesting in a weak looking 5f maiden at Ponty. He has an entry in the Mill Reef and with Dettori booked I expect this son of Shamardal to run well. He works with Pearl Secret at home and he appears to be one of Barrons best juveniles. In the Morny, Reckless Abandon should be tough to beat.

Gl all..


Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:43 am
Profile
Group 3 winner

Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:46 pm
Posts: 582
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Ah, I havent seen that race, only watched the replays of the Million and the Beverly D. Been having a look at Dundalk and have come up with two, dont laugh.

2.40 Nini Ok 5/1
3.40 Duff 14/1

Yes you have read that right, the 9yo nutjob Duff. Class act in his day, not the most genuine of horses as is well documented and this is as competetive as Dundalk sprint handicaps get, but some of his course and distance form from last season would put him bang in with a chance here off 89, he has went well fresh in the past and I like the fact that hes an Eddie Lynam second string with a nice draw. I do like his other runner Balmont Mast, hes a decent animal and a fair price at 6/1 but he can be a bit of a bridle horse and is probably at his best over a strong run 5f. They say class is permanent so maybe the old boy can defy his age and show these inferior handicappers whats what!

I wanted to take on Colour Of Love at 11/10 simply because of the trip, shes in form and she obviously comes out on top at the weights but these small field sprints at Dundalk can often be trappy and she dosent have many gears. Nini Ok won well on her only run on the AW at Kempton beating two decent fillies, although those two did run a mile wide round the bend and the race fell into her lap basically, but nevertheless, it was a decent effort and she has ran some solid races behind good sprint handicappers this season. She isnt the most straightforward and can hang right under pressure but 5f looks to be her trip, I dont think she is as far behind as the ratings suggest and there might be a bit of value in the 5/1. Ahaaly won her maiden at the track impressively but has been dissappointing in two runs since, excuses for the last apparently, and I think the handicapper took a liberty giving her a mark of 92, she could get the run of the race here though and she has as good a chance if returning to form. Farmleigh House is interesting, there was a bit of money around for him last time when beaten behind Colour Of Love and he even though worse off at the wieghts I wouldnt be surprised to see him run a big race back here.

_________________
"Every professional footballer should seek to play at least one game at Celtic Park. I have never felt anything like it"
Paolo Maldini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIsM7sPGlTw


Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:54 am
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:24 pm
Posts: 1903
Location: Edinburgh
Post Reply
Hey, I backed the lost cause that is Masked Marvel yesterday, so what can I say?!
He's a nice price, so good to luck to you!!

In the race before the Prix Morny, Pareo has been chalked up at 4/7. He ran well last time at Vichy in a listed contest won by the Hugo Palmer trainer long-shot, Making Eyes, finishing fourth, not beaten far. That is however, the typical type of race he has run this season, catching the eye, but ultimately spurning chance after chance to win. He can hard work, a bit soft and not easy to win with, so having already passed up a golden chance in recent times, he is certainly worth opposing at the price.
Garde Slickly and Nova Neyev are not good horses, so we move swiftly on to Zemiro, consistent enough at his level and capable around this track, but probably not good enough, barring disappointments elsewhere.
Miss Fifty on the other hand, could be more than good enough. She was a a fair juvenile, and a very smart three-year-old, placed twice in Group 3 company overall, the pick her third behind Moonlight Cloud and Helleborine in the Prix Imprudence. A year ago, she would be the 4/7 shot, but this year, the wheels have come off in no uncertain fashion since. Having faffed around with her trip, a return to seven furlongs, brought a glimmer of light last time, and at 4/1, she might have been the one to side with, but for the price of 12/1 about Nice Danon.
He is a useful colt, with a battling spirit, who has almost always run consistently in an around pattern level; A Group 3 winner at two, and listed winner at three, the son of Sakhee was considered a potential German Guineas winner at one stage, but proved no match for Excelebration. He has spent the last year on the sidelines, and is having his first start for the capable Waldemar Hickst, but while fitness must be taken on trust, at 12/1, he could be a serious contender at this level, against these opponents, if none the worse for his absence and providing Johan Victoire can keep tabs early.

_________________
:roll: :roll: Out of the office!! :roll: :roll:


Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:22 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner

Joined: Fri Apr 04, 2008 6:53 pm
Posts: 2325
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
I hope your gypsy curse continues then because I've backed Miss Fifty in addition to Sir Prancealot. I think there will be a lot of competition for the lead in the Morny and a decent gallop would set it up for him. I'm most worried about the Hannon 2nd string, I like his breeding.


Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:37 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:24 pm
Posts: 1903
Location: Edinburgh
Post Reply
Well, the French sent him off a very strong 5/2, but it made no difference, he faded badly as Pareo justified his market strength.
I have an inclination it was the mrs Rich!! I made the mistake of telling her she looked like a clown the other day (she was wearing a very odd shade of lippy in my defence) and I'm sure she mumbled something under her breath before slamming the door; she has been sporting a rye smile ever since, so I may need to explore her ancestry this afternoon, find out what type of black spirits I'm dealing with here!! :lol: :lol:

_________________
:roll: :roll: Out of the office!! :roll: :roll:


Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:27 pm
Profile
Handicapper
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:09 pm
Posts: 240
Location: Wincanton, Somerset
Post Re: Reply
Dancing Brave wrote:
No, Dominguez ride on Summer Front was highly irksome to me; The horse is normally dropped back, moved up on the turn and then asked to quicken and reel in the leaders, a tactic that has been highly successful in all prior turf starts. Tonight, Ramon fires him out the gates and ends up in front; then has to restrain the horse back by which time it's lit up and wanting to go faster than he now wants it go; the genius doesn't end there as he sits right up behind the leader and if that wasn't bad enough, then pulls the damn thing out halfway down the back, to move into second, and ends up taking the lead at the top of the lane, with far too long to last out. From a rider who knows the horse inside out, it was either a very bad tactical decision, or an extraordinarily bad ride, possibly both and it was no coincidence that Bayrir, the only one of the 'big four' not involved in the mess at the front of the race, came through to win.
Fallon wasn't great on Afsare mind you; not sure why he chose to ride with restraint when normally he is ridden prominently, but the whole field have pretty much gift wrapped that win for Little Mike, under a far better ride by Dominguez this time round. His stamina doubts were never even called into issue, they gave him such a soft time of it!! I'd need to watch it again and see if Afsare missed the break, but Fallon seemed content at his position as I seem to recall Crackerjack King actually moving around him early, to get into a better position.

Where do you get your form and statistics for the South African horses Grant??


I just check on At the Races and any other sites which have the data i want. I search for articles on the horses as it's the only way to really learn being based in England :) Really it's just a matter of researching for me, which is why I don't do it everyday as it can take a bit of time.
There has already been a 40/1 that has placed today ;)


Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:34 pm
Profile
Group 3 winner

Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:46 pm
Posts: 582
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
9/4 Reckless :lol: They're giving it away today, never in doubt.
Godolphin majority share announced in the next 3 weeks 1.01 NAP

_________________
"Every professional footballer should seek to play at least one game at Celtic Park. I have never felt anything like it"
Paolo Maldini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIsM7sPGlTw


Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:55 pm
Profile
Handicapper
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:09 pm
Posts: 240
Location: Wincanton, Somerset
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Southwell - 3:30 - (2nd)
3m 110y
Tekthelot - Gelding
Odds: 9/1

Trainer :K G Reveley
Jockey : Jonathan England

Has finished 2nd twice and third in the last three meets at Southwell on Good, Good/Soft and Soft going.

His only run over this distance was in Perth on 31st July this year and resulted in a win.


Last edited by GGBall on Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:49 pm
Profile
Handicapper

Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:20 pm
Posts: 178
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
unlucky to get run out of it
though george vancouver ran good race in morny
backed it each way good ground horse
all time runs today db
any view and what you think about great voltiger

_________________
all the gear no diea


Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:12 pm
Profile
Group 1 winner
User avatar

Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:24 pm
Posts: 1903
Location: Edinburgh
Post Reply
Mystic Meg could probably appraise a race better than I can at the moment SYT!!
She's very vulnerable at this distance, All Time, as she has shown the last twice, but only really has Alraased to beat. That one was well below par when beaten by Zamdy Man, who for me is not remotely a mid-eighties horse; Hanigan gave him an odd ride, and he did play up before the race, so maybe there were valid excuses for what I viewed at the time as a big step backwards. If he runs to the level he did behind Touch Gold, he'll beat All Time over this distance as she is patently slow and for me, the market makes it appear more of an open race, than it is. Be very disappointed if anything bar those two won, unless they take each other on from an early stage and commit tactical suicide, because the rest have poor form and even worse figures, three of them in particular!!

As for the Great Voltigeur; My personal view is that Thomas Chippendale is probably going to be the biggest danger to Camelot at Doncaster, as he is still a young horse mentally, improving and learning with every race. I think he will improve for that stamina stretching trip, but here, over twelve furlongs, I think he is vulnerable to something faster like Main Sequence. I've always rated him very highly, and I think at this trip, he is best of the rest behind Camelot. I hope he wins because he certainly deserves a nice pot and his trainer merits a big win, but this season, in order to find winners, it seems to be a case of identifying the worst form on offer and lumping on, so no doubt he'll get stuffed by Chicago as that one romps home fifty-seven lengths clear of Goldoni in second, with a further ninety-four lengths back to David Livingston in third!!

_________________
:roll: :roll: Out of the office!! :roll: :roll:


Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:00 pm
Profile
Group 3 winner

Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:46 pm
Posts: 582
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Dancing Brave wrote:
but this season, in order to find winners, it seems to be a case of identifying the worst form on offer and lumping on, so no doubt he'll get stuffed by Chicago as that one romps home fifty-seven lengths clear of Goldoni in second, with a further ninety-four lengths back to David Livingston in third!!


:lol:

_________________
"Every professional footballer should seek to play at least one game at Celtic Park. I have never felt anything like it"
Paolo Maldini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIsM7sPGlTw


Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:58 pm
Profile
Selling plater

Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:31 am
Posts: 55
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
To be fair though, Chicago is a horse who was well touted at the start of this season and although he only has worthwhile form in handicaps, it wouldnt surprise me if he placed as I dont think we have seen the best of him. On a more serious note, Main Sequence ought to hack up on these terms especially with 3lbs in hand on the danger Thomas Chippendale.

Robotboy failed to translate his good work at home to the track today, and ran very dissapointingly on debut at Pontefract. He ran very green however, and I'm sure he will run much better next time. Might even get double figure odds, which would be helpful. I'll put a line through that run today as Ponty is a tough track for anyone to make their debut at.

Tomorrow's racing is poor but Mr Fickle is a confident selection now upped in trip in the 6.40 at Kempton.

All the best


Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:24 pm
Profile
Handicapper
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:09 pm
Posts: 240
Location: Wincanton, Somerset
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Flamingo Park Meet - Horses worth E/W bets

12:20 -Thorkildsen Placed
Odds 21/1

12:50 - Bit'o'Sunshine Won
Odds 13/1

2:25 - Born This Way (potential to win race) (unplaced)
Odds 11/1

2:55 - Seriously Speaking (potential to win race) (unplaced)
Odds 15/1


Last edited by GGBall on Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.



Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 am
Profile
Group 3 winner

Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:46 pm
Posts: 582
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Roscommon
5.40 Ondeafears 11/4

_________________
"Every professional footballer should seek to play at least one game at Celtic Park. I have never felt anything like it"
Paolo Maldini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIsM7sPGlTw


Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:35 am
Profile
Handicapper
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:09 pm
Posts: 240
Location: Wincanton, Somerset
Post Re: DAILY DISCUSSION
Wolverhampton Meets E/W potential

3:50
Cristal Gem 16/1(Unplaced)

4:50 (Unplaced)
Odd Ball 33/1 (previous good wolverhampton form to go by, may grab 3rd if climaxfortackle doesn't)

5:20
Cono Sure 20/1 (Unplaced)

*edit Total wash out on these three, nevermind still made £57:00 in total at SAF ;)


Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:00 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 3136 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ... 210  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.